Week 16 Optimal DraftKings Plays, Millionaire Edition

Week 16 Optimal DraftKings Plays, Millionaire Edition

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Dec 19, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

After Week 16, 4for4 owner Josh Moore and I will collectively be $1.35 million richer. That’s because the top two prizes in the Week 16 DraftKings Millionaire Grand Final are $1 million and $350k.

My buddy CSURAM88—a full-time player who helped immensely in creating my newest daily fantasy book and perhaps the top daily fantasy football player in the world—currently has 46 entries into the tournament. At $1,500 a pop, that’s $69,000 in equity in a single tournament, and there are rumors that he could have a whole lot more entries by Sunday.

I’m not a gambling man (just go with it), but I’d have to say Josh and I, with our two total entries, have roughly the same chance of winning this thing as Peter and his (insert large number). Now mathematically that makes no sense whatsoever, but guess what?


They’ve been kicking ass (don’t edit ‘ass’ out this time, Josh!) all year, so I’m going back to the well. Using the values, let’s take a look at the top QB-WR stacks on DraftKings this week. Whether you’re playing in the $1 million championship or not, you can maximize your chances of taking down a GPP by hitting on a stack.



Week 16 DraftKings Stacks

QB Matt Schaub ($5300) and WR Andre Johnson ($6500) vs. DEN

Am I going to run Schaub out there with $1 million on the line? Hell no, but I definitely think this is an interesting pairing that I’ll play in some other smaller tourneys. Schaub and Johnson are both awesome values, and you know they’ll be throwing against Denver.

One of the traits I look for in a QB-WR pairing is that the wide receiver typically gets a high percentage of the quarterback’s targets. I’m sometimes hesitant to run out a Peyton Manning stack because he typically spreads the ball around so much.

A Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson pairing can be lethal, but that will also leave you bare elsewhere. Meanwhile, Schaub and Johnson will actually allow lots of flexibility elsewhere since Schaub is dirt cheap and AJ is so underpriced.


QB Andy Dalton ($7400) and WR A.J. Green ($7500) vs. MIN

This is really just a more expensive version of Schaub/Johnson. The pairing probably has a higher floor just because who knows what will happen with Schaub, but for the price, Schaub/Johnson looks more attractive to me.


QB Philip Rivers ($8000) and WR Keenan Allen ($6500) vs. OAK

When compared to Dalton and Green, this Rivers/Allen pairing is intriguing because 1) it’s $400 cheaper and 2) the over/under in the game is slightly higher. Both guys offer value and, like both stacks above, the wide receiver should get a high market share of targets.

The next question I’d typically ask is “what’s the most probable game flow?” Both Cincy and San Diego are favored by at least eight points, and that scares me. Because Dalton and Rivers might see few fourth quarter attempts, I think you need to downgrade them just a bit in terms of upside.


QB Tony Romo ($7600) and WR Dez Bryant ($7600) @WSH


QB Kirk Cousins ($7800) and WR Pierre Garcon ($6300) vs. DAL

The over/under in this game is hovering around 54—the second-highest total in Week 16—and the game is projected to be close. That’s an ideal situation because it has the potential to turn into a shootout very quickly. That puts both of these stacks very much in play.

As of the time of this writing, the forecast in D.C. for Sunday is 71 degrees (WTF!?) with a 30 percent chance of rain and 16 mph winds. The wind speed scares me most, so that’s certainly something to monitor.

Although Romo has struggled against the Redskins, I think the Romo-Bryant connection has greater upside because Bryant is just so much better than Garcon, particularly in the red zone. Bryant has four-touchdown potential that I’m not sure Garcon possesses. On the flip side, you don’t necessarily need that at Garcon’s cheaper $6300 price tag.


Week 16 DraftKings Optimal Tournament Lineups

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