Staking Bales: A Profitable Week 12

Staking Bales: A Profitable Week 12

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Nov 26, 2013

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

You guys wanna hear a funny story? I had Josh Gordon in 75 percent of my lineups on Sunday morning, then took him out of every single one before kickoff.

Because of the wind.

I’m doing some research on wind speeds for my book and I’ve found that when the wind approaches 20 mph, passing production drops to 82 percent of what it is when the wind is below 5 mph. So I did some research, uncovered what I thought was a competitive advantage, implemented it, and lost hundreds of dollars.

BUT, not really. See, the same reasoning that led me to fade Gordon got me off of Victor Cruz and Wes Welker. It also led me to target Josh McCown, Colin Kaepernick, and Anquan Boldin.

Because of that, I had a pretty poor week heads-up but a profitable week in tourneys. Here’s how it broke down by site.


























This is the exact opposite of how the rest of the season has gone for me: profitable in head-to-head and 50/50 leagues, but horrific in tournaments. I’ve been taking a lot more shots lately in an effort to secure some big cashes, but no dice. The fact that I’m still profitable by over a $100 is a really good sign since I haven’t had much GPP success.

To give you an idea of what’s going on, I downloaded my game data and broke it down by league type.














I’ve been pretty good in head-to-head and 50/50 leagues, profiting nearly $500 on the year. I’ve basically used that profit to fund my tournament entries. I feel like a compulsive gambler trying to justify my problem…

“No really guys, I’m going to hit on a GPP. I swear guys. I just need one more week. One more week and I’m going to cash in big. This is the week, I can feel it. See, I’m profitable elsewhere! Look at all the profits. I can keep entering tournaments if I’m making money in the other leagues. I almost picked Josh Gordon this week guys, I swear. I took him out at the last minute, but I won’t be fooled by the wind again. That was dumb, but I learned my mistake. I was profitable in the GPPs this week so I’m red hot. Can’t lose in Week 13. I’m gonna score big, you’ll see.”

No really though.


Week 13 Strategy

Heading into Week 13, I really do need to decide how I want to play the rest of the year. Should I grind out profits, or should I continue to take shots for a big cash?

There are advantages to both. Sticking with mainly heads-up and 50/50 matches, I should remain profitable and grow my bankroll through the end of the year. There’s value in, you know, not losing money. With GPPs, I obviously have the chance to double the bankroll (or more) immediately, but they’re also volatile.

So what do you want me to do? Continue to show you how to be profitable or go hard after some big cashes? Tweet me @BalesFootball and let me know your votes. At the end of the week, I’ll tally up the votes and then I’ll do absolutely nothing with them, instead just doing what I think is best anyway.

So get those votes in now!

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