Week 10 DraftKings Optimal Plays

Week 10 DraftKings Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Nov 7, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

You guys remember that time when I suggested you start Eli Manning pretty much every week and he just kept sucking and sucking but you kept starting him and lost all of your money? Well, that period isn’t really over. I just couldn’t recommend Manning since he had a bye last week.

Eeyore Manning isn’t all that great of value on DraftKings in Week 10, but another quarterback who keeps burning me—Robert Griffin III—does offer value.

If it seems like I’m always recommending players who have been playing poorly or have been injured, it’s only because. . . I’m always recommending players who have been playing poorly or have been injured.

In the NFL—a league ruled more by randomness and less by streaky play than many others—you can often find the best value by searching for guys who are down due to factors that aren’t necessary going to remain consistent: poor matchups, unusual game situations, and so on.

Even though we’re a few months into the season, most teams have still played only eight games. Imagine judging a baseball or basketball player after eight games. People seem to understand the variance in other sports because of the larger sample size of games, paradoxically placing more faith in NFL stats on a per-game basis because of the short season.

So for the most part, I care less about an NFL player’s last few games and more about the type of player he is, the offense he’s in, and how he’ll be used moving forward.

Since I play primarily tournaments on DraftKings, I’ll examine a few of the best GPP values this week.


Week 9 Tournament Values

QB Robert Griffin III @MIN $8100

RGIII is the 10th-best value at quarterback in the DraftKings Value Report, but no one ahead of him costs more than $6600. The question is whether or not Griffin is a legitimate threat to post huge numbers, and I think he is. He was actually extremely efficient last week with 9.1 YPA, but he was just unlucky to not score when the Redskins got close to the goal line.

RGIII had only 24 combined rushing yards in the past two games, but he also had 161 in the two before that. For the price, you’re getting value on a player who has a really good chance to improve in one of two really important categories—quarterback rushing yards and passing touchdowns.


RB Reggie Bush @CHI $7100

Quietly, Bush has at least 20 carries in each of the past two games and 13 or more in every game except one this year. He’s also been targeted at least six times in all but one contest.

With his play-making ability and versatility, Bush is an excellent choice in both tournaments and heads-up leagues. The Bears’ defense doesn’t intimidate offenses anymore, and I could have more exposure to Bush than any other running back this week.


WR Pierre Garcon @MIN $6000

One of the reasons that I listed Griffin as my top quarterback value is because Garcon is one of the premiere wide receiver values. When you’re looking to increase your ceiling in large leagues, it’s almost vital to pair a quarterback with one of his receivers. So you’re not necessarily looking for the best individual value at each position, but rather the most valuable combination. On DraftKings in Week 10, that’s RGIII-to-Garcon.

Now, here’s the catch on Griffin and Garcon: they play tonight. That means they’ll be heavily owned, and I typically recommend fading Thursday night players. However, I think they offer enough value and upside to target them if you enter leagues tonight, assuming you can vary your lineup enough elsewhere.


TE Vernon Davis vs. CAR $6400

Davis went for 8/180/2 a few weeks ago and he’s failed to score in just two games this year. I wouldn’t necessarily stick him into my head-to-head lineups, but Davis is an excellent tournament play this week.

The Panthers haven’t given up a lot of passing yards this year, but they’re better against wide receivers than tight ends. Carolina ranks fourth-best in our schedule-adjusted wide receiver points allowed, but 25th in tight end points.


Optimal DraftKings Lineups

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