Utilizing the Draft Planner: Drafting from the #10-#12 Spots

Utilizing the Draft Planner: Drafting from the #10-#12 Spots

By John Paulsen (Director of Forecasting), last update Aug 16, 2013

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 6 in seven of the last eight years. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-17 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

Follow John Paulsen on Twitter: @4for4_John.

Welcome to the first of a four-part series that is intended to help fantasy owners develop a draft plan based on their position in the first round.

We'll start with those owners picking #10-#12 in 12-team drafts since those owners probably have the toughest decisions to make early on. Using the ADP Draft Planner, I'll go round-by-round (through the 8th round) and mention a few players at each pick that fantasy owners should be targeting. I'll put the percent chance that one or more players are available at a certain spot in parenthesis, but drafts are constantly being added to the Draft Planner, so the percentages will likely change.

Keep in mind that these picks are for PPR scoring formats (with 4 pt per pass TD), but I will outline a standard scoring strategy as well. For PPR, I'm going to assume a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (along with a kicker and defense). If your league allows you to start three RBs, you'll probably want to draft a minimum of three RBs in the first four or five rounds. Conversely, if your league only requires one starting RB, you can focus more on the other positions.

If you want to take a look at the Full Impact Value Based Rankings as we go along, choose PPR - 4pt PaTD and enter 1-2-3-1 as the roster requirements. For the standard strategy, I'll use ESPN's standard roster requirements, which include 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and a flex, so enter 1-2.5-2.5-1 in Full Impact. (CBS and Yahoo standard leagues both use 1-2-3-1 with no flex, so a similar strategy can be used with a bit more emphasis on receiver.) Rankings will change over time as we gain more information, but this is how I'd attack the draft at this point in the preseason.

Note: Since there is far more draft data for PPR in the Draft Planner, I'm going to use it for both formats. ADP doesn't change all that much between formats, unless you're talking about players like Wes Welker or Darren Sproles. All percentages are for last two weeks as of time of publishing. The ADP Draft Planner is constantly being updated as real drafts continue to roll in on myfantasyleague.com.

Let's jump right in...



Given the depth at WR this year, I'm not looking to draft one in the first two rounds unless Calvin Johnson falls in my lap. Yes, Brandon Marshall shows up in our top 10 in Relative Value (RV), but I'd rather grab a RB like Matt Forte in the late first and pair him with Andre Johnson or Roddy White in the 3rd round instead of going with a Marshall/DeMarco Murray combo.

Let's assume we get Forte, who is often available at 1.11 (91%). If he plays a full season, he's very likely to set a career mark in catches. His new offense (under HC Marc Trestman) utilizes the RBs heavily in the passing game and Forte is capable of making a living on dump-offs and screens.

If the top eight PPR RBs and Calvin are gone, then I'd zag while everyone else is zigging in the first and draft Jimmy Graham knowing that I'll probably be able to draft Darren Sproles in the 2nd. We'll call this Team Jimmy. If you're not comfortable with a TE-early strategy, then draft Trent Richardson or Marshawn Lynch (68%) instead.

Standard Scoring: Given the roster requirements and scoring format, WRs and TEs are devalued, so owners are wise to start the draft RB/RB. Let's assume that we get Alfred Morris here.



In PPR, you'll see that we have Darren Sproles as our #13 overall player, and he's almost always (98%) available at 2.02. I'd be happy coming out of the 1/2 turn with a Forte/Sproles backfield. Marshawn Lynch (29%) is also a very solid pick here even though he doesn't catch that many passes. If you're not comfortable with Sproles, then Forte/Lynch is a nice start as well. Graham (58%) is an option in the 2nd as well, but for our purposes, we're going to assume Forte/Sproles.

Team Jimmy: You went TE in the 1st, so grab the best available RB here. We'll assume it's Sproles.

Standard Scoring: Draft the best available RB. Let's assume it's Steven Jackson. Stevan Ridley and Chris Johnson are also good options here.

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