Sneaky Starts: Week 14

Sneaky Starts: Week 14

By John Paulsen (Director of Forecasting), last update Dec 7, 2012

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 6 in seven of the last eight years. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-17 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

Follow John Paulsen on Twitter: @4for4_John.

As injuries pile up, all but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough -- a waiver wire or bench player who is capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

Week 13's Sneaky Starts included Jake Locker (QB11), Chad Henne (QB13), Bryce Brown (RB1), Jonathan Dwyer (RB19), Knowshon Moreno (RB28), Pierre Garcon (WR7), Brian Hartline (WR31) and Kyle Rudolph (TE6).

At 4for4, we use Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) by position heavily in our rankings and analyses. For more detail, click here.

Note: These recommendations do not override our weekly rankings, which are updated throughout the week and weekend.

Texans QB Matt Schaub (@ NE)
Schaub has thrown 13 touchdowns in his last six games and has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, who are #30 in QB aFPA. Schaub has averaged 46 pass attempts in the last three games.

49ers QB Colin Kaepernick (vs. MIA)
Kapernick's rushing yards make up for the 49ers' modest passing totals. The Dolphins have struggled against the pass and are pretty stout against the run, so San Francisco may throw more than usual.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (vs. ARI)
Wilson has thrown at least two touchdowns in five straight games and has averaged almost 36 rush yards per game in that span. The Cardinals aren't a great matchup (#8 in QB aFPA), but Wilson's play has been stellar.

Rams QB Sam Bradford (@ BUF)
Bradford had a quiet game against the 49ers last week (221 yards, zero TDs), but in the previous three games, he averaged 216 yards and 2.0 TDs against the Cardinals, Jets and 49ers, three teams that are all in the top 10 in QB aFPA. The Bills are #25 in that category.

Colts RB Vick Ballard (vs. TEN)
With Donald Brown out, Ballard should be a good start against the Titans, who are #30 in RB aFPA. The last time Brown was inactive (Week 7), Ballard turned 21 touches into 103 yards against the Browns. In Week 9 when Brown barely played, Ballard turned 19 touches into 98 yards.

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