Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 13

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 13

By John Paulsen (Director of Forecasting), last update Dec 4, 2012

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 6 in seven of the last eight years. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-17 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

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For those of you new to Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW), the strategy goes like this: Each week, you target a mediocre defense on the waiver wire, looking for a good matchup, preferably at home. You will typically get good defensive production without having to burn a semi-valuable pick on draft day. Or if you do draft a DT and they start to disappoint, you can use DTBWW the rest of the way.

I have been writing this feature for three years and in 2009, my top three weekly picks averaged DT5 numbers. In 2010, they averaged DT6 numbers. Last year, they averaged DT7 numbers. So the system works pretty well.

Generally, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues to be eligible. This ensures that we are talking about defenses that are readily available.

Matchups are key with DTBWW -- for an explanation of DT aFPA, click here.

Let's see how we did last week:

1. Patriots (28 fantasy points, DT1)
2. Cardinals (4 fp, DT23)
3. Bengals (12 fp, DT8)
4. Browns (21 fp DT3)
5. Panthers (7 fp, DT19)

The Patriots have scored 55 fantasy points in the last two weeks and owners should hold onto them for the stretch run. The Browns and Bengals were good, while the Panthers were serviceable.

Let's take a look at the best plays for this week:

Patriots (@ MIA)
They are not eligible since their ownership is over 60%, but as I mentioned above, owners should stick with them for the stretch run. They have a couple of bad matchups (HOU, SF) but those matchups are at home.

Jets (vs. ARI)
The Jets aren't a bad pickup for the stretch run considering their remaining schedule, which features four matchups against teams in the bottom 13 in DT aFPA (ARI, JAX, TEN, SD). This week they face Ryan Lindley.

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