Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 12

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 12

By John Paulsen (Director of Forecasting), last update Nov 27, 2012

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 6 in seven of the last eight years. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-17 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

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For those of you new to Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW), the strategy goes like this: Each week, you target a mediocre defense on the waiver wire, looking for a good matchup, preferably at home. You will typically get good defensive production without having to burn a semi-valuable pick on draft day. Or if you do draft a DT and they start to disappoint, you can use DTBWW the rest of the way.

I have been writing this feature for three years and in 2009, my top three weekly picks averaged DT5 numbers. In 2010, they averaged DT6 numbers. Last year, they averaged DT7 numbers. So the system works pretty well.

Generally, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues to be eligible. This ensures that we are talking about defenses that are readily available.

Matchups are key with DTBWW -- for an explanation of DT aFPA, click here.

Let's see how we did last week:

1. Cowboys (8 fantasy points, DT17)
2. Patriots (27 fp, DT1)
3. Rams (3 fp, DT22)
4. Redskins (17 fp, DT5)
5. Bengals (12 fp, DT13)

It was a hit or miss week for DTBWW with the Patriots and Redskins posting big numbers and the Bengals having a solid day against the Chiefs. The Cowboys were serviceable, while the Rams were brutal in a nice matchup against the Jets.

Let's take a look at Week 12:

Patriots (@ NYJ)
The Patriots DT scored 27 fantasy points last week against the Colts and are averaging 15.5 in their last four games. The Jets are a good matchup.

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