Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski: The Perfect 1-2 Punch?

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Aug 9, 2012

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

Season-to-season consistency is so important in the first couple of rounds because the upside of these picks, relative to their draft spot, is minimal.

First-round selections are supposed to score a ton of points, which is why there are more “busts” in this round than any other; it is all about expectations. First-round picks are often the outliers from the previous season; they likely overachieved, and thus are likely to regress in the current season.

With a ceiling that can’t grow much higher than expectation, you can secure the most value in the initial rounds by minimizing the floor, or downside, or your picks. In other words, avoid volatility at all costs.

The later rounds, when ceilings are lower and starting lineups are filling out, is the time to gamble on high-upside players. The most successful owners tend to make the “boring” picks early. 

Quarterback and tight end are the two most predictable positions in fantasy football. I discuss in my book why this is true. For this reason, those who select in the middle of the first and second rounds should strongly consider grabbing the draft’s top quarterback and tight end. As of this writing, the ADPs of Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski are 4.5 and 18.9, respectively.

Of course, the “correct” pick at each spot is really relative to your particular league (see our Full Impact custom scoring tools). Still, in most formats, Rodgers and Gronkowski (and a few similar players) possess value few other owners will realize, low volatility.


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