Data Mining - How Accurate Are First Impressions?

By Greg Alan

One week is just that, one game for each team. Not much to go on. Not time to panic on underperforming studs like Vincent Jackson & Ben Roethlisberger. However, PASS YDS PER ATTEMPT (PYPA) is one measure that does a good job at predicting a team's offensive success over an entire season (using only one week of data). 

Week #1 PYPA is a better predictor than points scored, rushing yards and plenty of other measures. In fact, when you combine PYPA with pass attempt data, history shows you have a solid leading indicator. Again, PYPA is even a better leading indicator than points scored.



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