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Forecast
Accuracy Update
Here's a sample of
the RECAP REPORT we do every NFL week. While others never look back, we always
do to make our service better for you.
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The Importance of Looking Back &
Keeping Score...
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As the old
golfing adage goes, "If they're not keeping score,
they're only practicing."
If a Fantasy source doesn't take the time to track, monitor
and display their Fantasy Football predictions, what does that
suggest?
We certainly won't get them all. But, the 4for4.com
forecasting process provides you with a decision support tool
that's measurable, objective and consistently replicated.
The
methods are statistically sound and have been validated on all
NFL games going back to the mid-90’s. With years of
research, experience and results, we’ve gained a high degree
of confidence in our process.
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In NFL Week #17 we
correctly predicted the winner in 11 of 16 games. From a
Fantasy standpoint, a few Week #17 highlights include:
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1) Jake Plummer would fail to reach 185 passing yards
(actual=132)
2) Jason McAddley 37 receiving yards (actual=38)
3) Falcons 354 Total Yards (actual=344)
4) Jamal Lewis 25 rec yards (actual=23)
5) Travis Taylor 59 receiving yards (actual=62)
6) Drew Bledsoe 234 passing yards (actual=231)
7) Eric Moulds 69 receiving yards (actual=75)
8) Rodney Peete 209 passing yards (actual=203)
9) Marty Booker will fall well below his average
(actual=59yds below his avg.)
10) Henry Burris would fail to reach 165 passing yards
(actual=78)
11) Jon Kitna 237 passing yards (actual=241)
12) Chad Hutchinson 190 passing yards (actual=189)
13) Rod Smith 58 receiving yards (actual=62)
14) Clinton Portis would amass 100+ rushing yards
(actual=228)
15) Backup Aveion Cason 55 Total yards (actual=52)
16) Billy Miller 44 receiving yards (actual=42)
17) Peyton Manning will pass for far fewer yds than
normal (actual=124yds below his average)
18) Fred Taylor 69 rush yards (actual=73)
19) David Garrard would fail to reach 180 passing yards
(actual=135)
20) Patrick Johnson will fall well below his average
(actual=23yds below his avg.)
21) Jay Fiedler would fail to reach 200 passing yards
(actual=110)
22) Ricky Williams would pick up 100+ rushing yards
(actual=185)
23) Jim Kleinsasser 28 rec yards (actual=29)
24) Michael Bennett 115 Total yards (actual=113)
25) Patriots 330 Total Yards (actual=337)
26) Patriots over the Dolphins
27) Troy Brown 63 receiving yards (actual=67)
28) David Patten 52 receiving yards (actual=56)
29) Tom Brady 225 passing yards (actual=221)
30) Donte Stallworth 59 receiving yards (actual=60)
31) Jets 339 Total Yards (actual=339)!
32) Jets over the Packers
33) Curtis Martin 80 rush yards (actual=83)
34) Laveranues Coles would manufacture over 80 rec yards
(actual=93)
35) Steve McNair would fail to reach 200 passing yards
(actual=148)
36) 49ers 352 Total Yards (actual=347)
37) J.J. Stokes 32 receiving yards (actual=29)
38) Tai Streets 51 receiving yards (actual=53)
39) Jeff Garcia would fail to reach 65 passing yards
(actual=16)
40) Cedrick Wilson 32 receiving yards (actual=31)
41) Isaac Bruce 53 receiving yards (actual=53)
42) Scott Covington would fail to reach 200 passing
yards (actual=7)
43) Marshall Faulk 74 Total yards (actual=73)
44) Mike Alstott 39 rush yards (actual=42)
45) Robert Holcombe 35 rush yards (actual=35)
4for4
Weekly Bargains...
In NFL Week #17 we identified Drew
Brees, Michael Bennett, Drew Bledsoe, Laveranues Coles
and Chad Johnson. All stepped up and delivered above and
beyond general consensus opinion.
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Below we track how well our "A-Game",
"B-Game" and "C-Game" players did
last week. We also track how we're doing for the entire
season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly
Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 9 years!
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| Quarterbacks
with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact Rating of: |
For
the Year
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Over
Last 9 Seasons |
| Pass
Yards |
Pass
TDs |
Pass
Yards |
Pass
TDs |
| A-Game |
2431 |
1.51 |
254 |
1.8 |
| B-Game |
223 |
1.3 |
210 |
1.2 |
| C-Game |
179 |
0.7 |
179 |
0.9 |
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| Running
Backs with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact
Rating of: |
For
the Year
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Over
Last 9 Seasons |
| Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
| A-Game |
118 |
0.8 |
112 |
0.8 |
| B-Game |
92 |
0.6 |
89 |
0.5 |
| C-Game2 |
19 |
0.1 |
38 |
0.2 |
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| Wide
Receivers with a 4for4 projected Fantasy Impact
Rating of: |
For
the Year
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Over
Last 9 Seasons |
| Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
Total
Yards |
Total
TDs |
| A-Game |
89 |
0.6 |
86 |
0.6 |
| B-Game |
64 |
0.3 |
62 |
0.4 |
| C-Game2 |
27 |
0.2 |
41 |
0.3 |
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2Note: In 2002, we've
extended the number of C-Game Running Backs and Wide Receivers we
track. As a result, the performance for these segments will appear
lower than historical norms. This is to be expected.
1The Amazing Michael Vick Impact: During the year, Michael
Vick's high-volume projected rushing yardage often correctly put him
into the 4for4.com QB A-Game category. However, because Vick only
averaged about 200 passing yards and 1.0 passing TD per game, his
consistent inclusion into the A-Game category negatively influenced
the 2002 A-Game QB stats shown above. With Vick removed from the
analysis, the 2002 A-Game QB stats actually closely mirror
historical norms (expected values). In short, the 4for4.com A-Game
QB forecasts were more accurate than above suggests. Because Vick is
so unique, in future years, we'll likely modify how we display the
QB recap category.
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