|
|
The
Tony Finn
Column
|
|
|
The Power of ADP
10 players that will make your 2006 draft
Posted 06/06/06
4for4.com Exclusive
|
|
|
|
Why do fantasy owners still rank players primarily based on last year’s performances? Why do some fantasy leaguers insist on drafting defenses or kickers before depth at the primary scoring positions? Why does a roster full of former primetime performers offer a false sense of security when the much anticipated draft is complete?
With rookie additions, personnel movement and the most overlooked grading variable —the fact that a player’s skill level will decline with age — it’s imperative that owners draft with some measurable knowledge of Average Draft Position (ADP) value and public perception in mind.
ADP has been an important fantasy acronym for some time. It’s a great way to see how managers value NFL players.
ADP is gold when addressing questions such as:
a) Is Peyton Manning going in the first round of most traditional formats?
b) Who do the majority of John Doe’s believe will be the starting running back in New Orleans?
c) Is the fantasy public still hot on Randy Moss despite his inability to stay healthy over his last two seasons?
d) How do most feel about the running back-by-committees in San Francisco and Denver?
e) What round is player-X likely to be drafted in?
Fantasy leaguers that know the answers to these questions will have an edge on draft day.
Don’t base fantasy drafts solely on last year’s statistics or on a player’s reputation. Instead, I design a plan, draw up a realistic draft strategy and imagine the 14 or 16 players most likely available from round-to-round.
It would be considered Gandhi-like wisdom for fantasy footballers to remember last year’s draft mistakes like Cedric Benson and Peyton Manning, and to forget that Terrell Owens once caught 100 balls in a season. Remember that in the Andy Reid offense Owens only had 77 receptions in the Eagles’ Super Bowl season. I believe making a demographic move to a conservative Bill Parcell’s scheme isn’t going to offer Owens first or second round value in traditional formats. That said, who are the draft day bargains?
I believe the following players are the “10 guys that will make your 2006 draft.”
Targeting the first ten rounds, here’s what I see…
ROUND ONE
First round picks are largely contingent on draft position. In round one, regardless of the fantasy format get a running back that resides in an above average offense and has a history of being durable. Avoid Peyton Manning and the top wide receivers in the first round. Remember that running backs rule in fantasy football and two healthy ground kings make most owners competitive week-in and week out.
ROUND TWO
Target: RB Willis McGahee, Buffalo
After being a consensus top-five overall selection in most 2005 fantasy drafts, the Buffalo featured back disappointed with only five rushing touchdowns last season. Fantasy owners with short-term total recall won’t remember what the ex-’Cane did in 2004. In just 11 starts McGahee recorded over 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding 22 receptions while taking over the featured role in Buffalo from Travis Henry. Look for new head coach Dick Jauron and offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild to use McGahee in critical game situations as opposed to lining up in three and four receiver sets, even when trailing in games. McGahee becomes an every down back this season and rewards his fantasy owners.
ROUND THREE
Target: RB Chester Taylor, Minnesota or WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona
Drafting RB-RB-RB in the first three rounds is advisable, especially in leagues that start two running backs and offer a flex. If Taylor is still available in this spot he rounds out what should be a terrific trio of running backs. Boldin could be available in round three and offers the most upside among the remaining receivers on the board. The Cardinals offense is explosive and they did little in the off season to upgrade their offensive line. This team will still throw the football even with the off season acquisition of Edgerrin James. Expect back-to-back 100 catch seasons for Boldin with the potential of double-digit touchdowns.
ROUND FOUR
Target: WR Roy Williams, Detroit
No coach is as demanding or more of a perfectionist than Lions OC Mike Martz. Throw in the fact that he has never failed to produce as an offensive guru and feel confident that the Lions top receiver is destined for a Pro Bowl season in 2006.
ROUND FIVE
Target: QB Tom Brady, New England
By the fifth round the top four quarterbacks will be off the board. With Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck gone, selecting Brady is a no-brainer. He’s durable and will throw as much or more than he did in 2005. With a running back by committee in New England and a defense that’s no longer considered one of the league’s elite, the Patriots will again have to outscore their opponents this season. This means fantasy leaguers can expect close to 30 TD passes and over 4000 yards in offense from Brady.
ROUND SIX
Target: WR T.J. Housmandzadeh, Cincinnati
Defensive coordinators are tiring of being beat by Chad Johnson and while opposing defenses double Johnson and roll coverage to his side of the field, Housmandezadeh once again will improve his season numbers. Quarterback Carson Palmer remains on target for a Week 1 return and in this scenario Housmandzadeh is in line for 1,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns this season.
ROUND SEVEN
Target: TE Alge Crumpler, Atlanta
Crumpler is still the only fantasy worthy receiver in Atlanta and will once again be the Falcons’ leading wide out….uh tight end. Expecting 60-plus receptions, 800 yards and 6 touchdowns puts Crumpler in the top-five tight end container.
ROUND EIGHT
Target: WR Reggie Brown, Philadelphia or WR Lee Evans, Buffalo
From the eighth round to the 12th round owners should concentrate on adding quality depth with upside. Stay away from older receivers and injury-prone personnel if you can. For example wide out Keenan McCardell will be a popular selection in this part of most drafts, but he has a better chance of breaking down at the age of 36 before he helps fantasy owners. If Brown is available in this round than he is your man. The second-year wide out will improve on his 2005 numbers, and with a healthy Donovan McNabb he will out perform his ADP. Evans becomes the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo with the offseason departure of Eric Moulds.
ROUND NINE
Target: WR Donte' Stallworth New Orleans or WR Drew Bennett, Tennessee
Much of what an owner does in the middle to late rounds of a draft is dependent on the scoring format, but wide receiver depth is second only to depth at running back. Stallworth and Bennett are on average leaving fantasy draft boards in early ninth round and either receiver has the potential to be a solid No. 3 receiver and bye week replacement.
ROUND TEN
Target: RBs Cedric Houston, NY Jets; Mewelde Moore, Minnesota; and Marion Barber, Dallas
Wait until the final 2-3 rounds to select your defense and kicker and use the late rounds to load up on running back and wide receiver depth. Each of the running backs listed has potential and are one injury away from being their team’s starting running back. If you want to reach some here, and few options are available, I might also consider Travis Henry.
|
|
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
Player ADP DATA as of June
6th
1
RB JOHNSON, LARRY
2 RB TOMLINSON, LADAINIAN
3 RB ALEXANDER,
SHAUN
4 RB PORTIS,
CLINTON
5 RB JAMES,
EDGERRIN
6 RB JACKSON,
STEVEN
7 RB BARBER, TIKI
8 RB JORDAN, LAMONT
9 RB JOHNSON, RUDI
10 RB BROWN, RONNIE
11 RB WILLIAMS,
CARNELL
12 QB MANNING,
PEYTON
13 RB MCGAHEE,
WILLIS
14 WR SMITH, STEVE
15 RB DAVIS,
DOMANICK
16 WR JOHNSON, CHAD
17 RB WESTBROOK,
BRIAN
18 WR FITZGERALD,
LARRY
19 WR HOLT, TORRY
20 WR OWENS, TERRELL
21 WR MOSS, RANDY
22 RB JONES, JULIUS
23 WR HARRISON,
MARVIN
24 WR BOLDIN, ANQUAN
25 RB PARKER, WILLIE
26 TE GATES, ANTONIO
27 RB JONES, KEVIN
28 RB LEWIS, JAMAL
29 WR CHAMBERS,
CHRIS
30 RB BUSH, REGGIE
31 RB DROUGHNS,
REUBEN
32 WR WARD, HINES
33 WR WAYNE, REGGIE
34 RB TAYLOR,
CHESTER
35 WR MOSS, SANTANA
36 WR JACKSON,
DARRELL
37 RB DILLON, COREY
38 RB DUNN, WARRICK
39 WR WILLIAMS, ROY
40 WR BURRESS,
PLAXICO
41 RB BELL, TATUM
42 RB JONES, THOMAS
43 WR WALKER, JAVON
44 QB PALMER, CARSON
45 RB MCALLISTER,
DEUCE
46 WR JOHNSON, ANDRE
47 WR DRIVER, DONALD
48 QB BRADY, TOM
49 QB HASSELBECK,
MATT
50 TE GONZALEZ, TONY
51 TE SHOCKEY,
JEREMY
52 RB FOSTER,
DESHAUN
53 QB MCNABB,
DONOVAN
54 QB MANNING, ELI
55 RB ADDAI, JOSEPH
56 TE HEAP, TODD
57 WR HOUSHMANDZADEH,
T.J.
58 QB BULGER, MARC
59 WR HORN, JOE
60 WR BRANCH, DEION
61 RB GREEN, AHMAN
62 RB BENSON, CEDRIC
63 WR GALLOWAY, JOEY
64 WR EVANS, LEE
65 RB MARTIN, CURTIS
66 RB TAYLOR, FRED
67 TE CRUMPLER, ALGE
68 RB BROWN, CHRIS
69 RB MARONEY,
LAURENCE
70 RB
WILLIAMS, DEANGELO
71 WR MASON, DERRICK
72 QB CULPEPPER,
DAUNTE
73 QB VICK, MICHAEL
74 RB RHODES,
DOMINIC
75 TE WITTEN, JASON
76 QB DELHOMME, JAKE
77 TE COOLEY, CHRIS
78 QB GREEN, TRENT
79 RB GORE, FRANK
80 RB DAYNE, RON
81 RB WHITE, LENDALE
82 TE MCMICHAEL,
RANDY
83 WR COLES,
LAVERANUES
84 WR STALLWORTH,
DONTE
85 WR CLAYTON,
MICHAEL
86 WR BURLESON, NATE
87 QB PLUMMER, JAKE
88 WR PORTER, JERRY
89 QB BREES, DREW
91 QB BLEDSOE, DREW
92 QB FAVRE, BRETT
93 TE DAVIS, VERNON
94 WR SMITH, ROD
95 TE SMITH, JOHN
96 QB ROETHLISBERGER,
BEN
97 WR BROWN, REGGIE
98 WR MUHAMMAD,
MUHSIN
99 TE
MILLER, HEATH
100 WR BENNETT, DREW
101 RB BARBER, MARION
102 WR KENNISON,
EDDIE
103 WR GLENN, TERRY
104 QB BROOKS, AARON
105 WR ROBINSON,
KOREN
107 WR EDWARDS,
BRAYLON
108 RB PERRY, CHRIS
109 QB WARNER, KURT
109 RB GADO, SAMKON
110 RB BARLOW, KEVAN
112 RB ANDERSON, MIKE
113 TE WINSLOW,
KELLEN
114 TE CLARK, DALLAS
116 QB LEFTWICH,
BYRON
117 WR MOULDS, ERIC
118 WR JOHNSON,
KEYSHAWN
119 WR WILFORD,
ERNEST
120 RB DUCKETT, T.J.
120 WR JONES, MATT
121 RB JONES, GREG
122 WR CURTIS, KEVIN
123 WR MCCARDELL,
KEENAN
124 TE STEVENS,
JERRAMY
125 RB HOLMES, PRIEST
128 QB CARR, DAVID
129 WR BRYANT,
ANTONIO
130 QB RIVERS, PHILIP
131 K RACKERS, NEIL
132 WR GIVENS, DAVID
133 K VINATIERI,
ADAM
135 QB BRUNELL, MARK
136 WR BRUCE, ISAAC
137 QB MCNAIR, STEVE
138 WR JACKSON, CHAD
139 WR LLOYD, BRANDON
140 RB MOORE, MEWELDE
141 QB SIMMS, CHRIS
142 WR CLAYTON, MARK
143 QB JOHNSON, BRAD
144 TE POPE, LEONARD
145 TE TROUPE, BEN
146 RB DAVENPORT,
NAJEH
147 RB DREW, MAURICE
148 WR MOSS, SINORICE
149 QB KITNA, JON
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
