How quickly things change. Remember a few years ago, before fantasy leagues were decided in the first two rounds of the draft, when top fantasy talent was distributed across all the positions? There was balance then. The top 10 players were not so obviously nine running backs and Peyton Manning. Receivers, quarterbacks, and running backs were all on equal footing. In fact, I can remember that after Marshall Faulk, the second pick was as likely to be Jeff Garcia, Rich Gannon, Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss as it was to be Edgerrin James. It was the Golden Age of fantasy football.

We've stumbled upon an era of mediocrity.

It was fun to play fantasy football then. The predictability was absent. There was only one consensus top pick, and he was Marshall Faulk. But there were dominant players at other positions. Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Daunte Culpepper, Garcia, and Gannon were putting up 4000 yard seasons buffered by 30+ TDs. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Rod Smith, Terrell Owens, Harrison, and Moss were going for 10 TDs and over 1300 yards. Even Ed McCaffrey and Derrick Alexander were getting in on the action.

And the running backs were good too. Besides Faulk, there was James, Eddie George, Corey Dillon, and Curtis Martin to name a few. Great fantasy producers all around. But nowhere could you arrive at a consensus for who the top 10 picks would be.

This season, it's easy. Any veteran fantasy player can name them off the top of his head. LJ. LaT. Shaun. Clinton. Tiki. Edge. Peyton. LaMont. Rudi. Steven Jackson. I've done four league drafts already and only once has that combination of players varied when SCTROJAN took Reggie Bush with the sixth pick. I could see Steve Smith or Chad Johnson creeping in there somewhere, but in a vast majority of all the drafts, those nine running backs and Peyton are the answer in the first round.

I'm not quite sure where to point the finger at this phenomenon, but the direct reason for the monotony is the plague of fantasy mediocrity to which I referred above. There just isn't anyone else to get excited about anymore after the first 15 picks.

And if peeing your pants for Donald Driver in the fifth round is cool, consider me...

Moving on...

So you have your task for this fantasy season, especially if you are drafting at the end of the first round. You will never match the production of LJ, LaT, or Alexander with any single pick, but you've got to match it and overcome the difference at another point in the draft. You aren't dead in the water without one of them, but you're definitely at a huge disadvantage.

You've got to dissect this year's bizarre positional hierarchy to find the players that will rise above boring 2005 campaigns and become, if not something special in 2006, then at least something far exceeding their draft position.

The clues to finding these guys are there, and my job is giving some pointers about who to look for and who to avoid. I'll even give you some names. Some are obvious. Others less so, and of course, my reasoning is completely subjective.

Disclaimer: these are arbitrary guidelines arrived at through the time-honored avenues of common sense. If you're reading this to procrastinate because you can't decide whether or not to switch to Geico, please, PLEASE, settle your insurance issues first before continuing any further.

Free agents are as good a place as any to start. In general, free agents are tough to project because their new teams have to be projected at the same time. Look for players who are joining teams on the rise, especially if those players in question are going to be key contributors to that team's anticipated success. Teams on the rise would include namely the Vikings, the Cardinals, and the Dolphins.

Start by finding guys who have moved inside their own division. A lot of times, a player feels stiffed by his former team and receives a jolt of determination by signing with a division rival. Determination is an invaluable attribute at the pro-level when no player survives on athletic ability alone. Also, by staying within his division, the player still gets to play the same teams he's played twice a season, often meaning that he is more familiar with opposing defenders and schemes.

And by following the first guideline, you'll find our no-brainer...T.O. Owens needs no explanation; we all know that at the time of his expulsion from the Eagles last year, he was at the top of his game and putting up enormous numbers. But seriously, since I began this by saying that I'm writing largely for those who missed out on one of the big three, let me tell you something: Owens is falling farther than you think. I've seen him go at the end of the second round, right to the teams that drafted one of the big three in the first place. DO NOT LET THAT HAPPEN. If you are picking at the end of the first round, you're going to pick at the top of the second. Guarantee yourself Owens with your first round pick and take your running back in the second. Do not pick Domanick Davis over Owens. Do not pick Randy Moss over Owens. Do not take Chad Jackson, Steve Smith, LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams, or Ronnie Brown over Owens. Get it?

Owens went to the Cowboys for a reason. He wants to watch Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, and company writhe and die at the bottom of the division. This is the easiest pick in the draft after the third overall pick (when you're left with the remainder of the LJ, LaT, Shaun fall out). Go for it.

Owens is the only notable offensive player to move within his division, so beyond that, look for those players who could propel an already solid team to playoff level.

Chester Taylor is a prime example. He has been a well-kept secret in Baltimore for the past few seasons backing up Jamal Lewis. He will become the young stud running back the Vikings have been searching for since the retirement of Robert Smith. The Vikings have added All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson and All-Pro fullback Tony Richardson to the equation as well, showing that the Vikings are going to be committed to the running game in 2006.

On the other hand, players moving to desperate teams such as the Saints, the Raiders, the Ravens, or the Packers should be avoided. Drew Brees, moving to New Orleans from San Diego, is an example. Something about the Saints just isn't right, and it's doubtful that Brees will be able to fix it himself. Yes, he will have Reggie Bush, but Deuce McAlister is recovering from a serious injury, Joe Horn is 34 and fading, and Donte Stallworth is erratic. There are better quarterbacks out there who can be had in later rounds.

Take young over old. Nothing ruins a draft like selecting a Joe Horn in the fourth round and watching him dial in an injury-plagued 600-yard season. Don't take rookies; they're usually a waste of time. Take third and fourth year players who have shown improvement over a couple of seasons. It takes a few years for a young football player to combine the effort and consistency needed to produce in the NFL. Two or three seasons is the generally accepted learning curve and jumping on the young guys when they're ready to step up can make a huge difference over selecting a slipping veteran.

Michael Jenkins of Atlanta is an exciting player. He made a big jump from his rookie to sophomore season and would seem primed to really embrace the role of top receiver this season. Of course, his very large drawback is the man throwing him the ball, Ron Mexi...err...Michael Vick. If it were Brad Johnson at QB for the Falcons, I would say Jenkins all the way, but the Vick situation can make any fantasy owner nervous.

Ernest Wilford is another good example. With the retirement of Jimmy Smith, he will move into the top receiver spot for the Jaguars, a team that looks good on paper and produces on the field. This is a team ready to come together around QB Byron Leftwich (another one of these young improvers who will ultimately be worth more than a QB like Drew Brees), and Wilford could be a valuable pick.

Finally, let's kill two birds with one stone. Look for guys who recently overcame debilitating chemical dependencies AND found God all at once. No, not Bam Morris. I'm talking specifically about Koren Robinson. Yes, he has been a chic fantasy sleeper pick by several experts, but seriously, if Koren is going to rebound, it's going to be now. The Vikings came on strong in the second half last season and allowed Nate Burleson to leave because they trust Koren to produce like a top receiver. He's only 26 and was one of the hottest receivers in the league a few seasons ago. Robinson will fall to the second half of most fantasy drafts. Grab him.

There it is. A couple of tips to help you overcome the post-draft depression that will set in if you don't get one of the big three. Fantasy football this year is going to separate the true roster generals from those that have been riding coat tails. Come on; get fired up! Take a chance on an unproven player. Do a little extra research and find the perfect sleeper. It's every man for himself this season; don't get caught holding Marc Bulger.