Many fantasy owners focus their attention on the top players as they strategize on how to win their local “Green Tea King Kong Fantasy Football League”.

Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander? Eli Manning or Carson Palmer? Steve Smith or Chad Johnson?

All are legitimate questions to ponder for owners at the top of the Draft. But in many cases, league championships can be won much like they are on the natural gridiron. With defense.

Fantasy owners should take every advantage of downloading PC Drafter featuring the “Gold Algorithm” located at http://www.pcdrafter.com/download.shtml. This application is essential while reviewing where and when the top defenses will be drafted.

The key to picking a top defense is consistency.

Last year’s top defense was the Chicago Bears. The Bears, led by Pro Bowl middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, forced 34 turnovers and scored six defensive touchdowns while allowing 281.8 yards per game (second in the NFL). More importantly, the Bears allowed a league-low 12.6 points-per-game, almost three points less than the second-place Colts.

In 2004, the Bears were a consensus Top Five defense as they forced 29 turnovers and scored seven touchdowns while allowing 336.9 yards-per-game and 20.7 points-per-game. Lovie Smith’s defense definitely wasn’t as consistent in 2004 as they were in 2005 when they performed like modern ‘Monsters of the Midway’. In 2003, Chicago was even worse forcing just 20 turnovers and scoring a mediocre four defensive touchdowns.

The key for the fantasy owner was watching the progress of the Bears defense. PC Drafter loaded with www.4for4.com forecasts shows the Bears defense with the best Average Draft Position (ADP) for the upcoming fantasy football season.

The table below shows the Top Five fantasy league defenses for the past three seasons:



Safest pick: Chicago Bears. The Bears may not have the best defense in 2006 but they play in the NFL’s most unstable division on offense. The Green Bay Packers face an uphill battle with an inexperienced middle of the offensive line while the Detroit Lions will have two journeyman quarterbacks, Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, vying for the starting role in Mike Martz’s offense. The Vikings will start aging veteran Brad Johnson at quarterback upon the departure of Daunte Culpepper to Miami and lack explosiveness and veteran leadership at the wideout position.

Riskiest pick: Pittsburgh Steelers. The Super Bowl champions have already experienced some of the bad karma of having a bulls-eye on their back while watching Ben Roethlisburger land on some plate glass windshield while riding his motorcycle in the offseason. More importantly, the ball-control offense in the past that has helped the ‘Steel Curtain’ will be missing “The Bus”, Jerome Bettis, as the oft-injured Duce Staley assumes the short-yardage role. With the departure of Kimo Von Oelhoffen, the health of nose tackle Casey Hampton is key as well as superstar safety Troy Polamalu. Another key statistic shows that five teams have finished in the Top Five twice in the past three years but no team has finished in the Top Five all three years. With Pittsburgh facing the high-octane Bengals twice per season and the rejuvenated Baltimore Ravens with Steve McNair, I don’t see the Steelers as a Top Five pick.

On the rise: The Carolina Panthers rose from #18 in 2004 to #2 last season and appear to have the edge to rise to #1 this season. Carolina welcomes back defensive tackle Kris Jenkins who had been arguably the league’s best interior defensive linemen prior to injuries in 2003 and 2004. Jenkins also struggled with alcohol and depression but has returned with a vengeance. The primary reason that Carolina will be the best defense in the league is due to the explosiveness and versatility of defensive end Julius Peppers. Peppers is a special type of player that opposing offensive coordinators have to gameplan away from him. That plan is tougher to implement for opposing offenses especially considering the talent on the defensive side of the football with fellow defensive end Mike Rucker (41 sacks in the last five seasons), Dan Morgan at middle linebacker, super talent Thomas Davis at weakside linebacker, and Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas playing opposite cornerback. The Panthers have added linebacker depth with the signings of Keith Adams (Philadelphia) and Na’il Diggs (Green Bay).


NFC Quarterback Issues

Arizona – Kurt Warner has made his way through the media talk show circuit and has said all the right things while being questioned about first-round pick Matt Leinhart. Warner clearly states that he’s the starter and that he will also tutor the young Heisman Trophy winner from USC. But Warner has to hear footsteps. This is the former MVP’s last true opportunity to shine as a starter with all of the offensive weapons in place including running back Edgerrin James and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Head coach Dennis Green is starting to feel more than the Arizona heat in Phoenix and if Warner struggles, Green will pull the trigger and start the ‘Leinhart Era’.

Chicago – Rex Grossman hopped off the bench to replace season-long starter Kyle Orton during the playoffs. But now Grossman looks over his shoulder to find veteran Brian Griese and the uncertainty of being under center for the Bears. Chicago added no real value to the offensive side of the football this past offseason with expectations that a healthy Grossman and the running game of Cedric Benson would vastly improve the league’s 29th ranked offense. Griese has started 72 games during his eight-year career while passing for 103 touchdowns and 78 interceptions. By contract, Grossman has started just seven games in his three-year career while passing for four touchdowns and six interceptions.

Detroit – With Joey Harrington now tanning himself amongst the palm trees on the Miami bench, Jon Kitna and Josh McCown enter a training camp tug of war in the Motor City as each tries to impress new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Kitna has the clear edge in veteran leadership and the former Seahawk and Bengal posted an impressive 2003 campaign when he passed for 26 touchdowns and 15 interceptions during his last full season as a starter. McCown gets the edge for having the strong arm to run Martz’s whirlwind offense and also for posting a decent winning percentage for the hapless Cardinals.

Washington – Mark Brunell sipped from the fountain of youth last season while having his best season since 1998 when he passed for 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Last year, Brunell quarterbacked Joe Gibbs’ team to a wildcard spot while passing for 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But Brunell turns 36 at the beginning of this season and 2004 first-round pick Jason Campbell sits idly by on the sideline. Joe Gibbs is counting down the days before Campbell gets the nod. Brunell has started all 16 games just twice during this 13-year career so it should come as no surprise to anyone if Brunell ends up as a Wally Pipp-line example in the NFL.