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I’d like to share one of my favorite analysis charts. It’s called the Player Potential Grid.
Over the years I’ve found it to be a rather handy reference guide. I really like this chart because it was designed to incorporate several pleasing intellectual properties. It mirrors a number of principles I’ve often heard cited by NFL coaches and GMs.
Perhaps most exciting, when you leverage the grid with artful planning, it has a variety of applications.
It Can Help You…
a) Evaluate NFL trades that include draft picks over one or multiple years
b) Evaluate your own league’s keeper trades
c) Quantify, estimate and compare keeper league potential value
d) Improve your keeper rankings
e) Examine trades in non-keeper leagues
The grid is big. It covers 125 player rankings (draft picks) and it offers a 3-year outlook as well.
Following the grid below, I’ll go over a few examples on how it can be put into action. In addition, I’ll highlight one of its most pleasing properties.
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1) A Basic NFL Application
The team with the #2 overall pick this year gets an offer from the NFL team selecting 11th. They offer their 1st round pick (11th overall) and their 2nd round pick (43rd overall) for the
#2 pick. Should the team with the #2 pick do it?
Consulting the grid shows the #2 pick is worth 1100 points. The 11th pick is worth 600 and the 43rd pick is worth 215 points. Since
1100 > 600+215, everything else being equal, the team with the #2 pick should not trade down.
2) How the Pros Do It
Jimmy Johnson was a magician on NFL draft day. He worked draft trades in record time and they almost always went his way. After he left the NFL, Johnson shared one of his favorite rules -- a 2nd round draft pick this year, has about the same value as a 1st round pick selected next season. In general, Jimmy was saying delaying a pick by a year is equal to moving up 32 picks the following season.
Consulting the chart shows Jimmy is spot on!
Example: A middle 2nd round pick this year (48th pick overall) has a value of 188. A middle 1st round pick next season is very similar. It has a value of 195. So, according to the chart, Jimmy was able to spot a fair trade in seconds just by following his rule of thumb.
Next, lets use the chart to evaluate your fantasy situation using existing NFL players.
3) Should You Pull the Trigger
Should you trade a fantasy stud with a limited career to get a much younger player who looks to be on the rise?
For arguments sake…
Let’s say you think Jamal Lewis will be the 20th best fantasy weapon in
2008. However, you also think he’s going to
wind down and perhaps even retire after the 2008 season.
On the other side, say you think former #1 NFL draft pick QB JaMarcus Russell will be the 100th best fantasy weapon in
2008. But, you believe the youngster will become the 50th best player in 2009 and the 25th best fantasy player in
2010.
Everything else being equal, should you trade Lewis before the 2008 season for
Russell, given the above assumptions?
Some of you are saying, “DO IT!” Others, “NO WAY!”
Regardless of your opinion, how are you forming it?
Again, lets just assume we all agree on the above Lewis-Russell assumptions, that’s not what we’re
debating here. The question is should you do the trade
given those assumptions.
Time to consult the Player Potential Grid...
The chart shows it’s actually better to keep Lewis under those assumptions. Doing the math, it breaks out as follows:
Lewis = 400+0+0 = 400
Russell = 39+80+105 = 224
Lewis > Russell (so keep Jamal Lewis)
Clearly, only time will tell if this holds true. But in any case, I often find it comforting to consult an
objective method.
Moral of the Story: It’s great to win down the road, but lets be real. NFL teams and Fantasy Managers alike prefer to
win now, not later.
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