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  Fantasy Football Scouts


Fantasy Values – The Rookies of 2006

By D.J. Boyer
Posted 5/10/06

 This article will focus on the overall talent level of the players coming into the league and how they may make an impact as a rookie and help your fantasy team. This is the second draft of this article and is meant as a more accurate depiction of a players value now that we know which teams drafted these players. A final revision will happen just before the start of the regular season and in time for many of you to use the knowledge towards your respective fantasy draft. By this time we have seen just how a player seems to be fitting in during the preseason, injuries or other roster movement could mean increased/decreased playing time for the player.  



Category 1: Sure Shots (7) 

1. Joseph Addai – Running Back – Indianapolis Colts 

Addai was the fourth running back selected in the Draft but he comes into a situation where he will have a chance to succeed immediately. With Edgerrin James now in Arizona it created a void in the backfield and many people predicted the Colts would be looking for a running back. The Colts have already said that Addai would be splitting time with running back Dominic Rhodes. Addai can succeed as a rookie and for proof he has to look no further than Rhodes. Rhodes was a rookie in 2001 when he ran for 1,104 yards while Edgerrin James was recovering from a torn ACL. I expect Addai to split carries when the season begins but he has a shot at getting more and more work as the season rolls on.  

2. Reggie Bush – Running Back – New Orleans Saints 

Did you honestly think Bush wouldn’t be listed here even though he wound up in a different situation than many of us anticipated. Bush gives the Saints instant credibility in a backfield that was previously full of question marks with Deuce McAllister returning from his knee injury and Michael Bennett signed after his inconsistent tenure in Minnesota. Bush should be the top player taken in your rookie draft because of his receiving ability. Even if he doesn’t get all the carries in New Orleans, his ability to split out as a wide receiver and play in some multi-back sets make him so versatile and valuable. Bush seeing a double digit touchdown total as a rookie isn’t far fetched.  

3. Vernon Davis – Tight End – San Francisco 49ers 

He may be a tight end but the player poised to make the most fantasy impact right now catching the football is Vernon Davis. Davis ran a faster 40 than 90% of the wide receivers at the combine with a 4.38, and he did that at 255 pounds. Davis can be lined up as a tight end, he can play the h-back position or can be split out wide like a wide receiver. This versatility will help him, especially in San Francisco where he could be the #1 receiving target by the end of the season. I also feel the signing of Trent Dilfer helps the value of Davis. If Alex Smith struggles with the pace of the NFL as he did a season ago, he could wind up getting the hook quickly and getting more time to learn behind Trent Dilfer. Dilfer brings more credibility to the offense and is a quarterback who in the past has shown some love for the tight end position. It doesn’t matter who is behind center in San Francisco, Davis has a shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and is an immediate threat to opposing defenses.  

4. Devin Hester – Cornerback/Return Man – Chicago Bears 

Special teams is an area you can never overlook on the football field and this is true in the world of fantasy football. If you are in a league where you need to draft individual players for the sake of punt and kickoff returns then Devin Hester is a lock to make an impact. Hester left school a year early for the 2006 Draft and even though his cover skills at cornerback are still under development he wound up being drafted in the 2nd round. It’s obvious the Chicago Bears thought highly of his return ability and it is the reason he was drafted a little higher than many people thought he would go. Hester will be a return threat for many years to come and deserves a look in your league.  

5. Santonio Holmes – Wide Receiver/Return Man – Pittsburgh Steelers 

Along with Chad Jackson, Santonio Holmes was seen as the top receiving prospect in this draft. Holmes was not only the first wide receiver selected in this draft he may be coming into the best situation. Holmes goes to a Championship team with a fantastic young quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The team struggled to find a consistent #2 wide receiver once Plaxico Burress left for the New York Giants and found themselves in a deeper hole once Antwaan Randle-El cashed in after his Super Bowl performance. Holmes has the opportunity to battle Cedric Wilson for a starting job opposite Hines Ward and will likely see time as a return man in Pittsburgh. This all adds up to big fantasy production as a rookie.  

6. Chad Jackson – Wide Receiver – New England Patriots 

I find it ironic that leading up to the draft I called Chad Jackson “a more athletic version of David Givens”, now he winds up with the Patriots where he is viewed as the long term replacement for David Givens. Jackson gets the luxury of playing with a team with a multitude of weapons yet the Patriots don’t have a true #2 receiver on the depth chart behind Deion Branch. This bodes well for Chad Jackson as does playing with one of the most underrated quarterbacks in NFL history, Tom Brady. Givens was a popular red zone target for New England and his streak of seven consecutive playoff games with a touchdown is proof. Jackson will have every opportunity to be the #2 wide receiver before the season is through.  

7. DeAngelo Williams – Running Back – Carolina Panthers                       

While I feel players like Laurence Maroney and LenDale White may be better overall running backs than DeAngelo Williams, this article is all about opportunities laid out before these players after they were drafted. Williams is technically not the starter in Carolina at running back but if history repeats itself (which it often does) it won’t be long before Williams is the workhorse for the Carolina offense. DeShaun Foster enters the season as the #1 running back but he has a list of injuries that seems to be pages in length. Injuries plagued Foster in college (caused him to drop from a 1st to 2nd round selection) and the injury bug has followed him in the pros. The Panthers drafted a running back in the 2nd round last year and after he struggled in the preseason he too was lost for the year due to injury. Williams is long-term solution at running back for the Panthers and due to attrition he may get a chance to start right away.  



Category 2: Good Bets (14) 

8. Jeremy Bloom – Wide Receiver/Return Man – Philadelphia Eagles 

Everyone knew this pick was coming in the 5th or 6th round and Jeremy Bloom wound up in one of the best situations he could ask for. The Philadelphia Eagles receiving corps is very young. Todd Pinkston is the veteran of the group with only five years of experience as Bloom has a chance to assert himself as a big play threat as a fourth wide receiver. The Eagles had a draft steal a few years ago when they took J.R. reed from South Florida whose rookie season was filled with promise as a return man. A freak off-the-field injury has left his NFL career in jeopardy so a return man is needed in Philadelphia and this is the area where Bloom shines. Expect Bloom to see action as a kickoff and punt return man in Philadelphia as a rookie.  

9. Maurice Drew – Running Back/Return Man – Jacksonville Jaguars                       

Drew ran the 40 in 4.39 at the combine and weighs over 200 pounds despite being a shade under 5-7. This looks like a carbon copy of the situation Darren Sproles was in last season, a prospect with blinding speed that due to size may need to make his presence felt on special teams. Drew was pegged to go to Jacksonville in my last mock draft and it is exactly where he ended up. With Fred Taylor perhaps in his final season in Jacksonville, it looks like Drew and Greg Jones will be the running back combo of the future in Jacksonville.  

10. Stephen Gostkowski – Kicker – New England Patriots 

With Adam Vinatieri gone there is a void at the kicker position for the Patriots. Martin Gramatica is on the roster but it looks like an insurance policy at this point. Gostkowski has excellent range and if he shows more consistency under 40 yards he will walk away with the job. Kicker isn’t a glamorous position but you are guaranteed to get point production from them and with a team like New England expect Gostkowski to be among the AFC scoring leaders if he secures the job.  

11. Derek Hagan – Wide Receiver – Miami Dolphins 

Terrific route runner with size and strength. Could be one of the receivers we see make an impact immediately because of the top tier receivers in the draft he may be the most “pro-ready” prospect. Consider he is now on the Dolphins, a team is desperate need of a #3 option behind Chris Chambers and Marty Booker and you can see why Hagan will get a look in most leagues.  

12. Greg Jennings – Wide Receiver – Green Bay Packers       

I said Jennings was moving up many draft boards but winding up in the 2nd round was still a bit surprising. Anytime you land on a team with Brett Favre you have immediate production potential. This is a team that I feel will struggle once again in 2006 even though they are improving. I see Green Bay playing catch up football often which means a lot of passing in the second half of football games. Javon Walker is gone as is Antonio Chatman so there are holes in the depth chart to be filled. Jennings will get a long look in the preseason and if he shows he is ready he could catch at least 40 passes as a rookie.  

13. Joel Klopfenstein – Tight End – St. Louis Rams 

Klopfenstein is not the ideal tight end because his skills as a blocker are somewhat lacking but in the world of fantasy football your tight ends ability to block means very little. Klopfenstein is a sure handed receiver who wound up in St. Louis, a team without a consistent threat at the position since the days of Ernie Conwell. Klopfenstein is penciled in as the starter but he will be sharing time with fellow rookie Dominique Byrd (wonder if he will be in the countdown later). Since Klopfenstein is a starter his value is high right out of the gate.  

14. Matt Leinart – Quarterback – Arizona Cardinals 

We finally get a quarterback to look at on our list with former Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart. Even though Leinart wasn’t the first quarterback taken he seems to be the most “pro ready” of the bunch. Leinart will also start the season behind Kurt Warner on the Arizona depth chart and Warner has only played in all 16 games in just 2 of his 7 NFL seasons. Odds are Leinart will get his shot at some point.  

15. Marcedes Lewis – Tight End – Jacksonville Jaguars 

Kyle Brady is 34 years old and George Wrighster has failed to fill his shoes as the top tight end on the roster. Lewis will be given every opportunity to shine in Jacksonville although next year may be his breakout season.  

16. Laurence Maroney – Running Back – New England Patriots 

I think next to Reggie Bush, Maroney was the best running back available in this draft. Maroney will have an impact with the Patriots because he is the heir apparent to Corey Dillon. We saw what happened to the offense last year when Dillon was hurt. In the five games Dillon did not start the starting running back averaged 54.8 YPG as opposed to Dillon averaging 72.8 YPC in the 11 games he started. The biggest disparity was touchdowns where Dillon had 12 rushing TD’s in 11 games and the other starters had 2 in 5 games. Maroney gives the Patriots the inside running presence they are lacking without Dillon in the lineup and I expect both to see a considerable amount of time in 2006.  

17. Garrett Mills – Fullback – New England Patriots 

Mills broke all kinds of records as a tight end at Tulsa but he is too small to project to play tight end at the NFL level. Mills spent most of the time playing fullback at the Senior Bowl and various other All-Star games and that is where the Patriots would like to use him. Mills will be especially valuable if you play in a fantasy league where you score points for receptions. Mills has the tools in the right offense to put up receiving numbers like we used to see from Larry Centers.  

18. Sinorice Moss – Wide Receiver/Return Man – New York Giants                       

Latest in a line of small receivers who could do more damage entering the league as a return man than a wide receiver. The Giants traded up for him on draft day with the idea of using him in the slot as a receiver as well as utilizing his return ability. Moss will attract a lot of attention in leagues this season and the success of his older brother Santana in Washington won’t hurt his stock.  

19. Leonard Pope – Tight End – Arizona Cardinals 

The tight ends in Arizona before Leonard Pope arrived were Eric Edwards and Adam Bergen, this should indicate why he has a shot at producing in his rookie season. Pope will need some time to develop his blocking technique but with Arizona looking to more two tight end sets with Edgerrin James in the offense it should mean an increase in production from the tight end position.  

20. Tony Scheffler – Tight End – Denver Broncos 

Want to talk about a tight end going into a good situation? We have seen mediocre tight ends posting a number of touchdowns since the departure of Shannon Sharpe in Denver and Scheffler is the best one they have drafted in the last 10 seasons. Stephen Alexander is currently ahead of Scheffler on the depth chart but he is a blocking liability and showed little in the way of yards after the catch. Scheffler could unseat Alexander as the starter by midseason and looks to be a big contributor in this offense in the years to come.  

21. LenDale White – Running Back – Tennessee Titans 

Tennessee had more pressing needs than the running back position but they made a great choice in opting for White. Travis Henry was unproductive when he had his chances with the offense last year and Chris Brown is an injury concern. White’s hamstring problem should be all healed by the time the exhibition season rolls around. While he may not start as a rookie he could become the short yardage specialist for the team and rack up some touchdowns while behind Brown on the depth chart.  



Category 3: 50-50 (11) 

22. Kellen Clemens – Quarterback – New York Jets 

Kellen Clemens was the hot name moving up the draft boards at the quarterback position and he may have a chance with the Jets right away if he can beat out Patrick Ramsey in camp and if Chad Pennington gets injured (again).                    

23. Owen Daniels – Tight End – Houston Texans 

Has the ability to make a big contribution if he fits in as an h-back. Gary Kubiak offense looks like a fit for Daniels, could make some serious noise in the future.  

24. Anthony Fasano – Tight End – Dallas Cowboys 

Fasano could turn into the tight end called upon to make the tough catches over the middle while Jason Witten stretches the field looking for the big play.  

25. Skyler Green – Wide Receiver/Return Man – Dallas Cowboys 

Green is very elusive and fast in the open field and teams saw he was a big play waiting to happen. If Green excels on special teams he could see more time as a slot receiver where he can work the middle of the football field.  

26. Jerious Norwood – Running Back – Atlanta Falcons 

Perfect compliment for the Atlanta offense and can catch the ball well. Warrick Dunn is now over 30 and T.J. Duckett is falling out of favor with the coaching staff.  

27. Maurice Stovall – Wide Receiver – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Big target going to a team with depth issues at the position. Only excelled one year at Notre Dame is a bust/boom pick.  

28. David Thomas – Tight End – New England Patriots 

They always find a way to get all of their tight ends involved in the offense.  

29. Leon Washington – Running Back/Return Man – New York Jets 

It doesn’t look like it took long for Derrick Blaylock to fall from grace. Washington is a great change of pace back who can catch the football and moves well in open space.  

30. Jeff Webb – Wide Receiver – Kansas City Chiefs 

Not the most attractive receiver in this draft but he fills a need and fits the Kansas City prototype at the position.  

31. Brandon Williams – Wide Receiver – San Francisco 49ers 

Currently a lot of turnover at the position. Williams has a chance to make a name for himself and see game action right away.  

32. Vince Young – Quarterback – Tennessee Titans 

Has tons of potential but will probably sit behind Billy Volek for a year. If Young moves ahead of Volek on the depth chart then he moves into a higher bracket, keep an eye on Young.  



Category 4: Dark Horses (12) 

33. Jason Avant – Wide Receiver – Philadelphia Eagles 

The Eagles receiving corps is crowded but opportunities are there for young players to grab some time and catches. Pay attention to Avant, he has lots of big game experience.  

34. Dominique Byrd – Tight End – St. Louis Rams 

Even though he gets picked behind Joe Klopfenstein this was a good place for him to go. These guys are interchangeable and we could see them both move between tight end and h-back.  

35. Brian Calhoun – Running Back – Detroit Lions 

Goes to a team moving in a new direction. Artose Pinner and Shawn Bryson both have durability issues, Calhoun could find himself as the third down back.  

36. Jay Cutler – Quarterback – Denver Broncos 

I think he was the best quarterback in this draft and will have time to learn behind Jake Plummer the way Carson palmer did in Cincinnati. Long term impact is great, this season it is minimal.  

37. Mike Hass – Wide Receiver – New Orleans Saints 

Big play ability and going to a team with a thin receiver depth chart.  

38. Jeff King – Tight End – Carolina Panthers 

A team with needs at the tight end spot, especially in the red zone.  

39. Wali Lundy – Running Back – Houston Texans 

Lundy is a better receiver than Vernand Morency, could wind up as a third down option.  

40. Brandon Marshall – Wide Receiver – Denver Broncos 

Denver likes big physical receivers, Marshall’s style of play will be a nice fit in with the Broncos.  

41. Michael Robinson – Wide Receiver – San Francisco 49ers 

The team took a chance on Arnaz Battle a few years ago (a converted quarterback to receiver) and he is now a starter. Give Robinson a few years and the same thing could happen.  

42. Brad Smith – Wide Receiver – New York Jets 

I had the Jets taking Robinson but they wound up with Smith after Robinson went off the board a few selection before they were on the clock in round 4. the jets are looking for more athletes at wide receiver who can make something happen after the catch.  

43. Todd Watkins – Wide Receiver – Arizona Cardinals 

Watkins is going to a team that could be looking for a #3 receiver by next season. With a year under his belt and big play ability they may have found their man in Watkins.  

44. Demetrius Williams – Wide Receiver – Baltimore Ravens 

Great value pick in the 4th round. Has the ability to work the middle of the field and go deep.  



Category 5: Sleepers (6) 

45. Devin Aromashodu – Wide Receiver – Miami Dolphins 

Has shown big play ability his whole career and the Dolphins need weapons, Could find himself on the practice squad for a year and then contribute in 2007.  

46. Brodie Croyle – Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs 

Comes into a perfect situation with Trent Green aging and their backup (Todd Collins) dealt away in the offseason. Green has been very durable in Kansas City so the chances of Croyle on the field this year are slim.  

47. Tarvaris Jackson – Quarterback – Minnesota Vikings 

Minnesota moved up into the 2nd round to take Jackson so you know they have big plans for him. Brad Johnson is currently the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL and the unreliable Mike McMahon is behind him.  

48. Martin Nance – Wide Receiver – Buffalo Bills 

Top undrafted receiver available, scooped up by the Bills right away.  

49. Charlie Whitehurst – Quarterback – San Diego Chargers 

Someone to groom behind Philip Rivers.  

50. Travis Wilson – Wide Receiver/Return Man – Cleveland Browns 

Goes to a team with some question marks at the position. Could help special teams as a return man as a rookie.

 


 


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