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This
article will focus on the overall talent level of the players coming into the
league and how they may make an impact as a rookie and help your fantasy team. This
is the second draft of this article and is meant as a more accurate depiction
of a players value now that we know which teams drafted these players. A final
revision will happen just before the start of the regular season and in time
for many of you to use the knowledge towards your respective fantasy draft. By
this time we have seen just how a player seems to be fitting in during the
preseason, injuries or other roster movement could mean increased/decreased
playing time for the player.
Category 1: Sure Shots (7)
1. Joseph Addai Running Back Indianapolis
Colts
Addai
was the fourth running back selected in the Draft but he comes into a situation
where he will have a chance to succeed immediately. With Edgerrin James now in
Arizona it created a void in the backfield and many people predicted the Colts
would be looking for a running back. The Colts have already said that Addai
would be splitting time with running back Dominic Rhodes. Addai can succeed as
a rookie and for proof he has to look no further than Rhodes. Rhodes was a
rookie in 2001 when he ran for 1,104 yards while Edgerrin James was recovering
from a torn ACL. I expect Addai to split carries when the season begins but he
has a shot at getting more and more work as the season rolls on.
2. Reggie Bush Running Back New
Orleans Saints
Did you
honestly think Bush wouldnt be listed here even though he wound up in a
different situation than many of us anticipated. Bush gives the Saints instant
credibility in a backfield that was previously full of question marks with
Deuce McAllister returning from his knee injury and Michael Bennett signed
after his inconsistent tenure in Minnesota. Bush should be the top player taken
in your rookie draft because of his receiving ability. Even if he doesnt get
all the carries in New Orleans, his ability to split out as a wide receiver and
play in some multi-back sets make him so versatile and valuable. Bush seeing a
double digit touchdown total as a rookie isnt far fetched.
3. Vernon Davis Tight End San Francisco
49ers
He may
be a tight end but the player poised to make the most fantasy impact right now catching
the football is Vernon Davis. Davis ran a faster 40 than 90% of the wide
receivers at the combine with a 4.38, and he did that at 255 pounds. Davis can
be lined up as a tight end, he can play the h-back position or can be split out
wide like a wide receiver. This versatility will help him, especially in San
Francisco where he could be the #1 receiving target by the end of the season. I
also feel the signing of Trent Dilfer helps the value of Davis. If Alex Smith
struggles with the pace of the NFL as he did a season ago, he could wind up
getting the hook quickly and getting more time to learn behind Trent Dilfer.
Dilfer brings more credibility to the offense and is a quarterback who in the
past has shown some love for the tight end position. It doesnt matter who is
behind center in San Francisco, Davis has a shot at Offensive Rookie of the
Year honors and is an immediate threat to opposing defenses.
4. Devin Hester Cornerback/Return Man Chicago
Bears
Special
teams is an area you can never overlook on the football field and this is true
in the world of fantasy football. If you are in a league where you need to
draft individual players for the sake of punt and kickoff returns then Devin Hester
is a lock to make an impact. Hester left school a year early for the 2006 Draft
and even though his cover skills at cornerback are still under development he
wound up being drafted in the 2nd round. Its obvious the Chicago
Bears thought highly of his return ability and it is the reason he was drafted
a little higher than many people thought he would go. Hester will be a return
threat for many years to come and deserves a look in your league.
5. Santonio Holmes Wide
Receiver/Return Man Pittsburgh Steelers
Along
with Chad Jackson, Santonio Holmes was seen as the top receiving prospect in
this draft. Holmes was not only the first wide receiver selected in this draft
he may be coming into the best situation. Holmes goes to a Championship team
with a fantastic young quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The team struggled to
find a consistent #2 wide receiver once Plaxico Burress left for the New York
Giants and found themselves in a deeper hole once Antwaan Randle-El cashed in
after his Super Bowl performance. Holmes has the opportunity to battle Cedric
Wilson for a starting job opposite Hines Ward and will likely see time as a
return man in Pittsburgh. This all adds up to big fantasy production as a
rookie.
6. Chad Jackson Wide Receiver New England
Patriots
I find
it ironic that leading up to the draft I called Chad Jackson a more athletic
version of David Givens, now he winds up with the Patriots where he is viewed
as the long term replacement for David Givens. Jackson gets the luxury of
playing with a team with a multitude of weapons yet the Patriots dont have a
true #2 receiver on the depth chart behind Deion Branch. This bodes well for
Chad Jackson as does playing with one of the most underrated quarterbacks in
NFL history, Tom Brady. Givens was a popular red zone target for New England and
his streak of seven consecutive playoff games with a touchdown is proof.
Jackson will have every opportunity to be the #2 wide receiver before the
season is through.
7. DeAngelo Williams Running
Back Carolina Panthers
While I feel players like Laurence Maroney and LenDale
White may be better overall running backs than DeAngelo Williams, this article
is all about opportunities laid out before these players after they were
drafted. Williams is technically not the starter in Carolina at running back
but if history repeats itself (which it often does) it wont be long before
Williams is the workhorse for the Carolina offense. DeShaun Foster enters the
season as the #1 running back but he has a list of injuries that seems to be
pages in length. Injuries plagued Foster in college (caused him to drop from a
1st to 2nd round selection) and the injury bug has
followed him in the pros. The Panthers drafted a running back in the 2nd
round last year and after he struggled in the preseason he too was lost for the
year due to injury. Williams is long-term solution at running back for the
Panthers and due to attrition he may get a chance to start right away.
Category 2: Good Bets (14)
8. Jeremy Bloom Wide Receiver/Return
Man Philadelphia Eagles
Everyone
knew this pick was coming in the 5th or 6th round and
Jeremy Bloom wound up in one of the best situations he could ask for. The
Philadelphia Eagles receiving corps is very young. Todd Pinkston is the veteran
of the group with only five years of experience as Bloom has a chance to assert
himself as a big play threat as a fourth wide receiver. The Eagles had a draft
steal a few years ago when they took J.R. reed from South Florida whose rookie
season was filled with promise as a return man. A freak off-the-field injury
has left his NFL career in jeopardy so a return man is needed in Philadelphia
and this is the area where Bloom shines. Expect Bloom to see action as a
kickoff and punt return man in Philadelphia as a rookie.
9. Maurice Drew Running
Back/Return Man Jacksonville Jaguars
Drew ran the 40 in 4.39 at the combine and weighs over 200
pounds despite being a shade under 5-7. This looks like a carbon copy of the
situation Darren Sproles was in last season, a prospect with blinding speed
that due to size may need to make his presence felt on special teams. Drew was
pegged to go to Jacksonville in my last mock draft and it is exactly where he
ended up. With Fred Taylor perhaps in his final season in Jacksonville, it
looks like Drew and Greg Jones will be the running back combo of the future in
Jacksonville.
10. Stephen
Gostkowski Kicker New England Patriots
With
Adam Vinatieri gone there is a void at the kicker position for the Patriots.
Martin Gramatica is on the roster but it looks like an insurance policy at this
point. Gostkowski has excellent range and if he shows more consistency under 40
yards he will walk away with the job. Kicker isnt a glamorous position but you
are guaranteed to get point production from them and with a team like New
England expect Gostkowski to be among the AFC scoring leaders if he secures the
job.
11. Derek Hagan Wide Receiver Miami
Dolphins
Terrific
route runner with size and strength. Could be one of the receivers we see make
an impact immediately because of the top tier receivers in the draft he may be
the most pro-ready prospect. Consider he is now on the Dolphins, a team is
desperate need of a #3 option behind Chris Chambers and Marty Booker and you
can see why Hagan will get a look in most leagues.
12. Greg Jennings
Wide Receiver Green Bay Packers
I said
Jennings was moving up many draft boards but winding up in the 2nd
round was still a bit surprising. Anytime you land on a team with Brett Favre
you have immediate production potential. This is a team that I feel will
struggle once again in 2006 even though they are improving. I see Green Bay
playing catch up football often which means a lot of passing in the second half
of football games. Javon Walker is gone as is Antonio Chatman so there are
holes in the depth chart to be filled. Jennings will get a long look in the
preseason and if he shows he is ready he could catch at least 40 passes as a
rookie.
13. Joel Klopfenstein Tight End
St. Louis Rams
Klopfenstein
is not the ideal tight end because his skills as a blocker are somewhat lacking
but in the world of fantasy football your tight ends ability to block means
very little. Klopfenstein is a sure handed receiver who wound up in St. Louis,
a team without a consistent threat at the position since the days of Ernie
Conwell. Klopfenstein is penciled in as the starter but he will be sharing time
with fellow rookie Dominique Byrd (wonder if he will be in the countdown
later). Since Klopfenstein is a starter his value is high right out of the
gate.
14. Matt Leinart Quarterback Arizona
Cardinals
We
finally get a quarterback to look at on our list with former Heisman Trophy
winner Matt Leinart. Even though Leinart wasnt the first quarterback taken he
seems to be the most pro ready of the bunch. Leinart will also start the
season behind Kurt Warner on the Arizona depth chart and Warner has only played
in all 16 games in just 2 of his 7 NFL seasons. Odds are Leinart will get his
shot at some point.
15. Marcedes Lewis Tight End Jacksonville
Jaguars
Kyle
Brady is 34 years old and George Wrighster has failed to fill his shoes as the
top tight end on the roster. Lewis will be given every opportunity to shine in
Jacksonville although next year may be his breakout season.
16. Laurence Maroney Running
Back New England Patriots
I think
next to Reggie Bush, Maroney was the best running back available in this draft.
Maroney will have an impact with the Patriots because he is the heir apparent
to Corey Dillon. We saw what happened to the offense last year when Dillon was
hurt. In the five games Dillon did not start the starting running back averaged
54.8 YPG as opposed to Dillon averaging 72.8 YPC in the 11 games he started.
The biggest disparity was touchdowns where Dillon had 12 rushing TDs in 11
games and the other starters had 2 in 5 games. Maroney gives the Patriots the
inside running presence they are lacking without Dillon in the lineup and I
expect both to see a considerable amount of time in 2006.
17. Garrett Mills Fullback New
England Patriots
Mills
broke all kinds of records as a tight end at Tulsa but he is too small to
project to play tight end at the NFL level. Mills spent most of the time
playing fullback at the Senior Bowl and various other All-Star games and that
is where the Patriots would like to use him. Mills will be especially valuable
if you play in a fantasy league where you score points for receptions. Mills
has the tools in the right offense to put up receiving numbers like we used to
see from Larry Centers.
18. Sinorice Moss Wide Receiver/Return
Man New York Giants
Latest in a line of small receivers who could do more
damage entering the league as a return man than a wide receiver. The Giants
traded up for him on draft day with the idea of using him in the slot as a
receiver as well as utilizing his return ability. Moss will attract a lot of
attention in leagues this season and the success of his older brother Santana
in Washington wont hurt his stock.
19. Leonard Pope Tight End Arizona
Cardinals
The
tight ends in Arizona before Leonard Pope arrived were Eric Edwards and Adam
Bergen, this should indicate why he has a shot at producing in his rookie
season. Pope will need some time to develop his blocking technique but with
Arizona looking to more two tight end sets with Edgerrin James in the offense
it should mean an increase in production from the tight end position.
20. Tony Scheffler Tight End Denver
Broncos
Want to
talk about a tight end going into a good situation? We have seen mediocre tight
ends posting a number of touchdowns since the departure of Shannon Sharpe in
Denver and Scheffler is the best one they have drafted in the last 10 seasons. Stephen
Alexander is currently ahead of Scheffler on the depth chart but he is a
blocking liability and showed little in the way of yards after the catch.
Scheffler could unseat Alexander as the starter by midseason and looks to be a
big contributor in this offense in the years to come.
21. LenDale White Running Back
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee had more pressing needs than the running back
position but they made a great choice in opting for White. Travis Henry was
unproductive when he had his chances with the offense last year and Chris Brown
is an injury concern. Whites hamstring problem should be all healed by the
time the exhibition season rolls around. While he may not start as a rookie he
could become the short yardage specialist for the team and rack up some
touchdowns while behind Brown on the depth chart.
Category 3: 50-50 (11)
22. Kellen Clemens Quarterback
New York Jets
Kellen
Clemens was the hot name moving up the draft boards at the quarterback position
and he may have a chance with the Jets right away if he can beat out Patrick Ramsey
in camp and if Chad Pennington gets injured (again).
23. Owen Daniels Tight End Houston
Texans
Has the
ability to make a big contribution if he fits in as an h-back. Gary Kubiak
offense looks like a fit for Daniels, could make some serious noise in the
future.
24. Anthony Fasano Tight End Dallas
Cowboys
Fasano
could turn into the tight end called upon to make the tough catches over the
middle while Jason Witten stretches the field looking for the big play.
25. Skyler Green Wide Receiver/Return
Man Dallas Cowboys
Green
is very elusive and fast in the open field and teams saw he was a big play
waiting to happen. If Green excels on special teams he could see more time as a
slot receiver where he can work the middle of the football field.
26. Jerious Norwood
Running Back Atlanta Falcons
Perfect compliment for the Atlanta offense and can catch
the ball well. Warrick Dunn is now over 30 and T.J. Duckett is falling out of
favor with the coaching staff.
27. Maurice Stovall Wide Receiver
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Big
target going to a team with depth issues at the position. Only excelled one
year at Notre Dame is a bust/boom pick.
28. David Thomas Tight End New
England Patriots
They
always find a way to get all of their tight ends involved in the offense.
29. Leon Washington Running
Back/Return Man New York Jets
It
doesnt look like it took long for Derrick Blaylock to fall from grace.
Washington is a great change of pace back who can catch the football and moves
well in open space.
30. Jeff Webb Wide Receiver Kansas
City Chiefs
Not the
most attractive receiver in this draft but he fills a need and fits the Kansas
City prototype at the position.
31. Brandon Williams Wide
Receiver San Francisco 49ers
Currently
a lot of turnover at the position. Williams has a chance to make a name for
himself and see game action right away.
32. Vince Young Quarterback Tennessee
Titans
Has
tons of potential but will probably sit behind Billy Volek for a year. If Young
moves ahead of Volek on the depth chart then he moves into a higher bracket,
keep an eye on Young.
Category 4: Dark Horses (12)
33. Jason Avant Wide Receiver
Philadelphia Eagles
The
Eagles receiving corps is crowded but opportunities are there for young players
to grab some time and catches. Pay attention to Avant, he has lots of big game
experience.
34. Dominique Byrd Tight End St.
Louis Rams
Even
though he gets picked behind Joe Klopfenstein this was a good place for him to
go. These guys are interchangeable and we could see them both move between
tight end and h-back.
35. Brian Calhoun Running Back
Detroit Lions
Goes to
a team moving in a new direction. Artose Pinner and Shawn Bryson both have
durability issues, Calhoun could find himself as the third down back.
36. Jay Cutler Quarterback Denver
Broncos
I think
he was the best quarterback in this draft and will have time to learn behind
Jake Plummer the way Carson palmer did in Cincinnati. Long term impact is
great, this season it is minimal.
37. Mike Hass Wide Receiver New
Orleans Saints
Big
play ability and going to a team with a thin receiver depth chart.
38. Jeff King Tight End Carolina
Panthers
A team
with needs at the tight end spot, especially in the red zone.
39. Wali Lundy
Running Back Houston Texans
Lundy is a better receiver than Vernand Morency, could
wind up as a third down option.
40. Brandon Marshall
Wide Receiver Denver Broncos
Denver likes big physical receivers, Marshalls style of
play will be a nice fit in with the Broncos.
41. Michael Robinson
Wide Receiver San Francisco 49ers
The team took a chance on Arnaz Battle a few years ago (a
converted quarterback to receiver) and he is now a starter. Give Robinson a few
years and the same thing could happen.
42. Brad Smith Wide Receiver New York Jets
I had
the Jets taking Robinson but they wound up with Smith after Robinson went off
the board a few selection before they were on the clock in round 4. the jets
are looking for more athletes at wide receiver who can make something happen
after the catch.
43. Todd Watkins
Wide Receiver Arizona Cardinals
Watkins is going to a team that could be looking for a #3
receiver by next season. With a year under his belt and big play ability they
may have found their man in Watkins.
44. Demetrius
Williams Wide Receiver Baltimore Ravens
Great value pick in the 4th round. Has the
ability to work the middle of the field and go deep.
Category 5: Sleepers (6)
45. Devin Aromashodu Wide
Receiver Miami Dolphins
Has
shown big play ability his whole career and the Dolphins need weapons, Could
find himself on the practice squad for a year and then contribute in 2007.
46. Brodie Croyle Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs
Comes
into a perfect situation with Trent Green aging and their backup (Todd Collins)
dealt away in the offseason. Green has been very durable in Kansas City so the
chances of Croyle on the field this year are slim.
47. Tarvaris Jackson Quarterback
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota
moved up into the 2nd round to take Jackson so you know they have
big plans for him. Brad Johnson is currently the oldest starting quarterback in
the NFL and the unreliable Mike McMahon is behind him.
48. Martin Nance Wide Receiver
Buffalo Bills
Top
undrafted receiver available, scooped up by the Bills right away.
49. Charlie Whitehurst
Quarterback San Diego Chargers
Someone
to groom behind Philip Rivers.
50. Travis Wilson Wide
Receiver/Return Man Cleveland Browns
Goes to
a team with some question marks at the position. Could help special teams as a
return man as a rookie.
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