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  2008 Rookies. An Early Look.


Ranking 2008 NFL Rookies
Short Run Fantasy Value (1-3 years)


History is replete with promising rookies gone bad. Despite respected scouts saying, “He can’t miss,” no sure bets exist.

When you layer in NFL team needs and other factors, determining a rookie's three-year fantasy value becomes even more challenging. All that said, we’ve been working it hard and below we offer up our Top-50 Post Draft Rankings.


RUNNING BACKS REIGN
As you’ll soon see, our Top-50 list once again leans heavily toward RBs.

Why?

First, the 2008 RB class looks decent. On the flip side, overall the 2008 QB, WR and TE class looks rather pedestrian.

Compounding this, we know from prior analysis that highly drafted rookie RBs, especially 1st round selections, generally make a more positive impact than other offensive skill positions.

Consider this: Less than 15% of all quarterbacks peak before the age of 25. Wide receivers and tight ends aren’t much better – on average they reach their peak in their mid-twenties. Running backs on the other hand typically reach their prime several years earlier.

The punch line is clear. When you rank on short-term fantasy value, rookie running backs rule.

1

Raiders

RB

Darren McFadden

The Raiders selected RB Darren McFadden with the 4th pick overall in the 2008 NFL Draft. We believe McFadden was clearly the best RB available coming out this year and he’s a potential NFL franchise player. Highly versatile, McFadden has game-breaking speed and explosiveness. Since he’s not that great running parallel to the line, we look for the Raiders to send him up the middle more often than not. Without question, McFadden will have every opportunity to start come week one of the 2008 regular season. McFadden ranks with the likes of Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush when they came out of college.
2

Panthers

RB

Jonathan Stewart

In the first round of the 2008 NFL draft the Panthers selected RB Jonathan Stewart. The selection was a slight surprise but tells us Carolina is fully committed to its power running game this season. Look for Stewart and DeAngelo Williams to battle in camp for playing time but don’t be shocked if Stewart wins the starting job at some point this year. He’s a power runner with great upper body strength and at a minimum he’ll be a good complement to Williams who is more of a scat-back runner and receiver. Stewart’s pass blocking skills should also keep him on the field. No doubt about it, Stewart could become a banger in the NFL and he’s a decent fit for the Panthers current scheme.
3

Steelers

RB

Rashard Mendenhall

In the first round of the 2008 NFL draft, the Steelers went for RB Rashard Mendenhall. From the looks of it the Steelers made a nice value pick. Mendenhall is a power runner and will compete with Willie Parker who is coming back from a leg injury. One thing is for sure -- the Mendenhall pick does not help Parker's fantasy stock. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers go to an RBBC with Parker only getting 60% of the carries in 2008. If your league awards big points for red zone production get Mendenhall on your radar screen – he figures to be a decent short yardage and inside runner.
4

Cowboys

RB

Felix Jones

Cowboys RB Felix Jones With the 22nd overall pick in the 2008 Draft the Cowboys picked RB Felix Jones from Arkansas. Jones is a big play threat with great burst in the open field. Dallas may look to Jones as a kick returner in addition to a change of pace complement to Marion Barber. Jones reminds us a little of Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook. However, due to his upright running style, he might never become a consistent 20+ carry/game guy in the NFL.
5

Titans

RB

Chris Johnson

In the first round of the 2008 NFL draft the Titans picked RB Chris Johnson from East Carolina. Johnson has blazing speed and decent hands for a running back. If he can hold up, he could become a serviceable NFL running back. Short term, combined with LenDale White, the Titans could have a true Thunder-n-Lightning committee in 2008. Johnson may only get a maximum of 5-7 carries/game in his rookie season but keep in mind he runs a legitimate 4.2-40 – one of the best times we’ve ever seen from a first round running back. One big opening in the o-line and Johnson could take it all the way. In addition, he’s more than capable as a receiver out of the backfield. While at ECU Johnson actually played some WR in addition playing in the backfield. If your league rewards huge points for big runs, keep Johnson on your radar screen.
6

Ravens

RB

Ray Rice

The Ravens went for depth at RB having landed Ray Rice in round two of the 2008 NFL draft. Rice will back up Willis McGahee to start but he could eat into McGahee's touches as the season moves along. Despite his size, Rice is a powerful North-South runner who is very compact and can make people miss. Down the line, if all goes well, we believe Rice is capable of carrying the ball 15-20 times per game in the NFL. If Rice were drafted in 2007 he would have ranked with the likes of Marshawn Lynch.
7

Bears

RB

Matt Forte

The Bears picked RB Matt Forte from Tulane in round two of the 2008 Draft. Forte will be given every chance to compete with Cedric Benson for the starting job this year and he might just win it. We like Forte’s size/speed ratio and he timed well in the 40. In addition Forte proved to be a fairly durable runner in college. At Tulane, Forte also flashed decent hands as a receiver and averaged over 6-yds per carry his senior year.
8

Lions

RB

Kevin Smith

Short term, the Lions 3rd round pick could prove to be the Fantasy sleeper of the 2008 draft. Smith is a powerhouse and looks to be a capable inside runner. In fact, after Darren McFadden, we believe Smith is the best inside rusher coming out of the 2008 class. Smith is on track to be the Lions starting week-1 RB in 2008.
9

Falcons

QB

Matt Ryan

The Atlanta Falcons selected QB Matt Ryan of Boston College with the 3rd pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. We believe Ryan was clearly the best QB available in the college draft this year. He’s a complete package and his throwing accuracy helps separates him from the pack. Despite little help from the Boston College wide receiving core, Ryan dominated in school and he’s also one tough guy. He reminds us of a poor man’s Carson Palmer and he’s also similar to Drew Brees. Long term we have him ranked below last year’s #1 rookie QB JaMarcus Russell, but ahead of Brady Quinn when he was drafted.
10

Rams

WR

Donnie Avery

Avery was the first WR taken in the 2008 NFL Draft. The Rams selected the dangerous high-speed threat in the 2nd round. Avery will attempt to replace the Rams long- time stud Isaac Bruce (who went to SF). Avery ranks a little behind Lee Evans, Troy Williamson and Santana Moss the year they came of college and is in the same tier as Ted Ginn as a college prospect. Unquestionably, Avery is an explosive open-field runner and he’ll have every opportunity to start the 2008 season playing behind Torry Holt and Drew Bennett in the Rams offense. Due to his speed, in time, Avery could become a good fit playing inside the Rams dome.
11

Ravens

QB

Joe Flacco

In the first round of the 2008 NFL draft the Ravens may have reached a little for QB Joe Flacco. The move sends Kyle Boller's fantasy stock falling. Flacco has great arm strength but needs time to learn the NFL game. If you like QBs with a strong gun you’ll like Joe. That said, we believe he’s still got some learning to do, especially against more complex NFL defensive schemes. The Ravens will need to be patient with Flacco and move him along slowly. If they do and Flacco’s rocket arm lives up to its potential, Baltimore will have drafted one heck of a bargain.
12

Bills

WR

James Hardy

The Bills need a WR and they hope rookie WR James Hardy from Indiana will step in. Hardy, selected in round two of the 2008 draft, has talented but he's also had his share of off-field problems. His best attribute is his monster size. He stands over 6ft 5in and has long arms. If he manages to get his head together he could be a threat in the redzone. Buffalo took a huge risk with Hardy. Time will tell.
13

Bengals

WR

Jerome Simpson

The Bengals went for small college prospect WR Jerome Simpson in round #2 of the 08 Draft. Simpson went to Costal Carolina College and is said to be a high character guy. He could compete for the Bengals #3 WR spot sooner than later if all goes well for him. On the down side, he really needs to work on his open field blocking skills. The Bengals hope that Simpson will replace Chris Henry.
14

Redskins

WR

Devin Thomas

The Redskins picked WR Devin Thomas from Michigan State in round two of the 2008 NFL Draft. Thomas is a powerful possession-type receiver and the Redskins hope he'll blend well with their smaller down field receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El. In short, the Redskins see Thomas as another Dwayne Bowe in the making.
15

Eagles

WR

Desean Jackson

The Eagles went for WR Desean Jackson from California in round two. Jackson may also contribute on special teams as a return man. In time he could become Philly’s #3 WR in 2008. Jackson has quick feet and good open field speed however he lacks size and could be outmatched on the line against NFL press coverage. Still Philly would be wise to get him several touches a game on reverse and trick-plays as Jackson is dangerous in open space.
16

Jets

TE

Dustin Keller

In the first round of the 2008 NFL draft, the Jets reached for TE Dustin Keller from Purdue. Keller has decent hands so he could someday become a modestly serviceable fantasy TE. Long term he’ll need to improve his blocking skills otherwise he’ll only amount to a role player working in the slot at the NFL level. Short term, barring a trade, Keller will be competing against the Jets veteran TE Chris Baker for playing time. At this stage we’d give the advantage to Baker.
17

Chiefs

RB

Jamaal Charles

We believe Charles will end up being Larry Johnson’s main backup in 2008. He has talent. While he may never be a 20+ carry guy in the NFL, we really like his open field explosiveness and ability to explode outside the tackle box. Down the line, if Charles ever averages 10+ touches a game, he’ll be a somewhat viable fantasy option especially in yardage leagues.
18

Dallas

RB

Tashard Choice

The Cowboys went for depth in the 4th round when they selected Georgia Tech RB Tashard Choice. Choice has good vision and seems to understand the game well. In addition, he’s a decent pass catcher coming out of the backfield. On the down side, he hasn’t shown the ability to break many tackles and he’s not going to out run many NFL defenders. The Cowboys see Choice as a runner who could carry the ball 20+ times a game if Marion Barber were to get injured. For now, he’s going to be deep on the depth chart behind Barber and fellow rookie RB Felix Jones.
19

Packers

WR

Jordy Nelson

The Packers picked WR Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft. The Packers see Nelson as a possession receiver and a player that can return kicks on special teams. Worth noting, he caught an amazing 122 passes his senior year at Kansas State. Nelson will compete for the Packers #3 WR spot playing behind Donald Driver and Greg Jennings in 2008. Long term he could have some fantasy value in leagues that award points per reception.
20

Seahawks

TE

John Carlson

The Seahawks selected TE John Carlson from Notre Dame in round two of the 2008 NFL draft. At this early stage, fellow rookie TE Dustin Keller looks to be the better fantasy option however Carlson’s Seahawks have more offensive power than Keller’s Jets and Seattle wants Carlson in the starting lineup sooner than later.
21

Steelers

WR

Limas Sweed

The Steelers landed WR Limas Sweed in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft. The Pittsburgh coaching staff focused on drafting offense and they really liked Sweed. While Sweed is a tall powerful receiver with talent, the Steelers already have depth with Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Nate Washington so barring injury, we don’t see Sweed being a huge fantasy factor this year.
22

Broncos

WR

Eddie Royal

In round two of the 08 NFL Draft the Broncos selected WR Eddie Royal from Virginia Tech. If he makes it in the NFL he’ll become a slot receiver. He also could contribute as a return man on special teams.
23

Giants

WR

Mario Manningham

Loaded with raw talent, Manningham will have every opportunity to compete for the Giants #3 WR job in 08. Teamed with Plaxico Burress, the highly talented rookie is more than capable of making big plays. Given Amani Toomer’s age, Sinorice Moss, Steve Smith and Manningham all have a shot at becoming the Giants clear #2 WR in 2009. On paper, we believe Manningham is the favorite. He’s a good blocker, has above average hands and runs excellent patterns. On the down side, some question his character and he lacks ideal NFL size. If you want to take a flyer on a rookie WR, Manningham is a decent choice.
24

Cardinals

WR

Early Doucet

The Cardinals made out like bandits selecting Doucet late in the third round of the 2008 draft. We believe he has all the skills required to become a serviceable slot receiver in the NFL. He’s a mix of Anquan Boldin, Brandon Stokley and Reggie Wayne. Doucet has excellent hands and won’t drop many passes. At LSU, he often times outplayed NFL rookie stud Dwayne Bowe and former 1st round pick Craig Davis. On the down side, Doucet lacks ideal straight-line speed.
25

Redskins

WR

Malcolm Kelly

Trying to upgrade their WR corp, the Redskins selected WR Malcolm Kelly from Oklahoma in round two of the 2008 NFL Draft. Kelly needs to work on his route running but we believe he has athleticism and good hands. In addition he has decent size. Still, Fantasy fans should keep in mind Kelly is currently more know for his blocking skills than down field receiving accomplishments. On the flip side, his size and powerful hands give him upside potential as an NFL possession receiver and red zone target.
26

Dolphins

QB

Chad Henne

The Dolphins landed QB Chad Henne from Michigan in round two. This can't be good news for Miami QB John Beck. For his part, Henne has good arm strength but his throwing mechanics still need work. Henne fits Bill Parcels mold as a “tough guy” who competes hard on every play. Long term our concern is his throwing accuracy and overall pocket awareness. Don’t expect much any time soon.
27

Broncos

RB

Ryan Torain

Torain is a strong guy with powerful legs. On the down side, he lacks the ability to make quick moves. The Broncos are hoping Torain’s Lisfranc injury in 2007 is a thing of the past. Denver sees him as a long-term project. Given the team’s history at producing stud RBs late in the draft, Torain is worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. As a rookie, he’s clearly behind Travis Henry and Selvin Young on the depth chart.
28

Packers

QB

Brian Brohm

The Packers selected QB Brian Brohm from Louisville late in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Green Bay incumbent QB Aaron Rodgers fantasy stock takes a hit as a result of Brohm being on the roster. Durability concerns do exist with Brohm and most of his problems have been soft tissue issues. That’s never a good sign and given his lack of mobility, we also share concerns about his long-term durability. Also on the down side, we’ve never been that impressed with his pure arm strength. That said, Brohm is a polished QB prospect and he could excel in the NFL when working in play-action situations. Also on the plus side, Brohm comes from a football family and he has displayed NFL-level vision while in college. If all goes well for Brohm he could press and overtake Rodgers during his rookie season.
29

Bengals

WR

Andre Caldwell

The Bengals are clearly looking for a #3 WR and they say Caldwell could help right away. Caldwell will compete with fellow rookie Jerome Simpson for Chris Henry's #3 WR spot. Some question Caldwell’s durability and he didn’t help himself during his pro-day workouts. The biggest knock we have on him --inconsistent hands. On the plus side, he’s a complete WR with big-play abilities. As long as the Bengals have Carson Palmer at QB, both Caldwell and Jerome Simpson have upside fantasy potential.
30

Cowboys

TE

Martellus Bennett

The Dallas Cowboys landed TE Martellus Bennett from Texas A&M with the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft. On paper Bennett has a ton of talent and we like his hands however he ranks behind the likes of Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen and Zach Miller when they came out of college. Dallas wants Bennett to step in for Anthony Fasano who went to the Dolphins in the offseason. If Dallas continues to run a two tight end package Bennett could produce a few serviceable fantasy games in his rookie season.
31

Texans

RB

Steve Slaton

At 5-9 195-lbs his size will work against him. In addition, his running mechanics need work. On the plus side, he’s more than capable of quickly making one cut and hitting the hole – exactly what the Texans like to see in their running backs. Translating all this to the NFL suggests Slaton will be most dangerous working on 3rd downs and when defenders play off the line. He’s not a 20-carry type prospect and short term he’s competing against the Texans Ahman Green and Chris Brown so don’t expect all that much.
32

Cardinals

RB

Tim Hightower

Hightower is a north-south runner who can pack a punch. Down the road, Hightower could be used in goal line and short-yardage situations if he makes it in the NFL. He also has decent hands and could be used as a receiver out of the backfield on third downs. Just don't expect him to break many long runs.
33

Bears

WR

Earl Bennett

Bennett is cut from the Hines Ward/Muhsin Muhammad mold. The Bears think he could start at some point this year and given Chicago’s depth chart, he’ll certainly have every opportunity. In college, Bennett was a great route runner and a top-tier possession receiver.
34

Chargers

RB

Marcus Thomas

The Chargers think he could make the team as a backup RB and a special teams player. Thomas is a better inside runner as he lacks big-play skills in open space.
35

Chiefs

TE

Brad Cottam

KC took a nice calculated risk in drafting Cottam in the 3rd round. Down the line, if Cottam can stay healthy, he could become a viable Fantasy TE. He’s a smart receiver with solid hands. If KC’s Tony Gonzalez were forced to the bench, take note and watch Cottam, he has the raw skills to average 2-4 receptions per game in the NFL.
36

Buccaneers

WR

Dexter Jackson

The Buccaneers picked WR Dexter Jackson from Appalachian State in round two of the 2008 NFL Draft. Jackson is a true speedster however his lack of size and inconsistent hands raises doubts. We believe he’s going to have problems beating press coverage if he lines up outside as a wide receiver. At 5-9 180 pounds we’re not sold on Jackson as an NFL fantasy prospect. He’ll likely be limited to working in the slot and as a possible special teams return man.
37

Vikings

QB

John David Booty

Booty is a pure pocket passer with decent accuracy. While he often lacks consistency on his deep ball, in time, he may have what it takes to be an effective game-manager at QB. The fact he ran a modified West Coast scheme in college will only help him once he gets into camp. The Vikings desperately need a dependable QB and in time, Booty will get his chance if he’s able to step up and focus.
38

Falcons

WR

Harry Douglas

Douglas is not real big. In fact he only weighs 180-lbs. Durability will always be a concern in the NFL. That said, he has excellent hands and could prove to be a dangerous slot receiver if he can adjust to the next level. The Falcons need immediate WR help so Douglas could get his share of playing time even as a rookie. Short term, he’ll be competing for the Falcons #3 WR job. He reminds us a little of Sammie Parker.
39

Redskins

TE

Fred Davis

In round #2 of the NFL Draft the Redskins selected TE Fred Davis from USC. The Redskins will be going to a new West Coast offense in 2008 so Davis has a chance to catch a few balls. That said, he’s been a major underachiever in college and under whelmed many scouts during his NFL workouts. Playing behind Chris Cooley, we don’t expect much from Davis this year.
40

Chargers

RB

Jacob Hester

If Hester makes it in the NFL it will be as a fullback so we don’t see that much fantasy value here. On the plus side, he has decent hands so he might catch a few balls in the flat. Bottom line? At best, Hester will become LaDainian Tomlinson's backup in 2008.
41

Falcons

RB

Thomas Brown

Another smallish RB, Brown lacks the ideal size/speed ratio to become a star NFL running back. That said, he reminds us of a more powerful version of Darren Sproles but with less flash and burst. The Falcons like his quick acceleration and that could come in handy playing in a dome. Still, durability will be an issue assuming he makes an NFL roster as a third-down back and special teams return man.
42

Chiefs

WR

Will Franklin

Decent speed but very inconsistent hands. He may be a year away but KC has a thin stable of WRs so Franklin will have a chance to move up fast. We see him more as an NFL slot receiver, not a deep threat along the sidelines.
43

Packers

TE

Jermichael Finley

Green Bay cut Bubba Franks and Finley runs great routes getting off the line so he could develop into a fantasy TE option. If Finley makes it in the NFL it will be because of his receiving skills. Short term, he’s clearly behind Donald Lee on the Packers depth chart.
44

Patriots

QB

Kevin O'Connell

New England went for a high upside sleeper pick in the third round. As a solid physical talent with good arm strength, O'Connell is going to be a welcome project for the Patriots. In time he could bump Matt Cassell as the Pats #2 QB. O’Connell has good vision and the ability to move around in the pocket. On the down side, his throwing mechanics need work. Given his natural pocket awareness skills, the selection is a best-case scenario for O'Connell.
45

Rams

WR

Keenan Burton

The Rams need depth at WR and they hope Burton will develop into a possession receiver. He lacks speed but runs decent short routes. If he makes the Rams roster in 2008, he’ll earn his spot due to his special teams return skills.
46

Ravens

WR

Marcus Smith

The Ravens like his power. He’s one of the stronger WRs coming out so he should be able to handle NFL press coverage. That said, he lacks explosiveness and his route running needs some work. If he makes it in the NFL it will be due to his special teams play and abilities as a short-yardage possession receiver.
47

Craig Stevens

TE

Craig Stevens

The Titans drafted Stevens for his blocking ability but their system also looks to the TE as a safety valve. Otherwise, at this stage, he’s nothing that special as a Fantasy prospect.
48

Browns

TE

Martin Rucker

Do the Browns have some real health concerns about Kellen Winslow? At least that would explain why they reached for Rucker in round 4. The knock on Rucker is he’s slow. That said, having Rucker on the field could help open a few more things up for the Browns wide receivers. In college Rucker was seen as a premier tight end for most of the season because of his ability to get open and his terrific size. Long term, as a pass catching tight end Rucker has some Fantasy potential in leagues that require you start a TE. Barring injury, Rucker will need to beat out Steve Heiden for playing time in his rookie season. Overall, the Browns may have reached a little on this pick.
49

Bears

TE

Kellen Davis

The Bears rolled the dice on a boom or bust player. Davis has great size and good speed but he’s more of an athlete than a football player. Chicago must be willing to give him several years to learn the position. Bottom line. A very captivating NFL prospect but a very risky NFL selection.
50

Raiders

WR

Arman Shields

The Raiders reached when the selected Shields in the 4th round. He's a small school prospect coming out of Richmond where he only averaged 40 receptions per season. To make matters worse, Shields missed almost his entire senior year due to a knee injury. Even when healthy, Shields only had modest speed. His best attributes are his hands and route running. Oakland is betting he’s made a full recovery and they see him as a long-term project.
51

Titans

WR

Lavelle Hawkins

Hawkins has serviceable route running speed and he’s good coming out of his cuts. The Titans hope he can be a deep threat and they’d like to line him up in the slot as well. The problem is he’s never been a consistent receiver and he’s prone to drops. At 5-11, he has his work cut out for him making an NFL roster.
52

Colts

TE

Jacob Tamme

The Colts hope Tamme will be able to fill in for Ben Utecht who they lost to free agency. Tamme is a marginal NFL prospect with modest raw skills. He’s a long shot for Fantasy players despite being on the Colts.
53

Panthers

TE

Gary Barnidge

The Panthers consistently draft TEs in the 5th round and this year was no expectation. From the fantasy angle Barnidge is more of a blocking TE so don’t expect many receptions even if he moves up the Panthers already crowded TE depth chart.
54

Lions

WR

Kenneth Moore

Great hands but he lacks size and only possess modest speed. He's a long shot to make the Lions roster in 2008. If he does he'll be returning kicks on special teams to start.

 


 


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