2007 Rookies. An Early Look.


Ranking 2007 NFL Rookies
Short Run Fantasy Value (1-3 years)


History is replete with promising rookies gone bad. Despite respected scouts saying, “He can’t miss,” no sure bets exist.

When you layer in NFL team needs and other factors, determining a rookie's three-year fantasy value becomes even more challenging. All that said, we’ve been working it hard and below we offer up our Top-50 Post Draft Rankings.


RUNNING BACKS REIGN
As you’ll soon see, our Top-50 list leans heavily toward RBs.

Why?

First, the 2007 RB class looks decent. On the flip side, overall the 2007 QB, WR and TE class looks rather pedestrian.

Compounding this, we know from prior analysis that highly drafted rookie RBs, especially 1st round selections, generally make a more positive impact than other offensive skill positions.

Consider this: Less than 15% of all quarterbacks peak before the age of 25. Wide receivers and tight ends aren’t much better – on average they reach their peak in their mid-twenties. Running backs on the other hand typically reach their prime several years earlier.

The punch line is clear. When you rank on short-term value, rookie running backs rule in 2007.

1

Minnesota

RB

Adrian Peterson

A potential NFL franchise back, Peterson is a downhill slasher with power, speed and decent hands. He reminds some of us of a young Ricky Williams. However, Minnesota coach Brad Childress has already said Chester Taylor will also be in the mix this year. Bottom line. It's hard not to like Peterson running behind the Vikings talented offensive line.
2

Buffalo

RB

Marshawn Lynch

Buffalo landed a workhorse runner in Lynch however he may split time with Anthony Thomas and fellow rookie Dwayne Wright in 2007. Lynch looks to be a decent NFL inside runner but he's clearly not in the same class as Peterson at this stage. Still, everything we've seen suggests Lynch has what it takes to carry the ball 20+ times per game and not wear down.
3

Detroit

WR

Calvin Johnson

He'll start week one opposite Roy Williams in Mike Martz's spread system. Last season Mike Furrey put up decent numbers for Fantasy owners and Johnson has far superior skills. He's one of the five best college WR prospects to come out in the last ten years.
4

GB

RB

Brandon Jackson

He starts out #2 on the Packers depth chart behind Vernand Morency. Jackson is a good one-cut and move inside runner and he's a good fit for the Packers zone-blocking run scheme. He could be a hot rookie this winter once he works his way into the starting lineup.
5

Oakland

QB

JaMarcus Russell

He should see plenty of playing time in 2007 however the Raiders offensive line is still laughable. Russell reminds us of a young Daunte Culpepper with far superior intangibles. In three years he could be a top-5 Fantasy QB due to his exceptional arm strength.
6

Tennessee

RB

Chris Henry

If he beats out LenDale White you could be looking at the Titans go-to runner in 2007. Henry projects well to the NFL as a decent inside and outside runner. Still, he’s far from a lock, as he needs to improve his running style. Keep in mind he only had 269 carries his entire college career and only averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt.
7

Indianapolis

WR

Anthony Gonzalez

Electrifying open field runner that will work the slot and have Peyton Manning throwing him the leather. With Harrison and Wayne both over 30, Gonzalez could come up huge in a few years.
8

KC

WR

Dwayne Bowe

He should eventually become KC’s go-to possession receiver and see plenty of playing time. Bowe has a nice size/speed ratio and he could see his share of throws in the redzone via play action. While he may be a little slow off the line, and he doesn’t excel in any one area, Bowe has few weaknesses.
9

Buffalo

RB

Dwayne Wright

A hard-nosed power runner, Wright has the skills to become an adequate insider runner. In time, he could become a featured short-yardage and goal line back. Wright lacks great speed but he has plenty of grit to go with his powerful running style. He's an inside runner who could develop into a decent short-yardage specialist in the NFL. He might also steal away a few touches working as a Fullback at the next level. Long term, because Wright is hard to tackle but lacks open field speed, he has more fantasy value in TD-heavy scoring leagues. For now, we see him behind fellow rookie RB Marshawn Lynch and veteran RB Anthony Thomas on the Bills depth chart.
10

Cleveland

QB

Brady Quinn

Opinions vary greatly on Quinn. However most agree he has above average field vision and pocket awareness. It's only a matter of time before Quinn wins the Browns starting quarterback job away from Charlie Frye. Quinn ranks with the likes of Alex Smith and Rex Grossman when they came out of college. With emerging weapons in Cleveland and an upgraded offensive line, Quinn could generate decent numbers in two to three years.
11

Miami

WR

Ted Ginn

Ginn ranks in the same ballpark as Lee Evans, Troy Williamson and Santana Moss the year they came of college. Unquestionably, Ginn is an explosive open-field runner and he should immediately add a spark to the Dolphins special teams. That said, he doesn’t figure to be more than the #4 option in the Dolphins passing game in 2007. Despite all his speed, Ginn is still rather raw as a receiver. While Ginn has huge upside potential and Coach Cam Cameron really likes his new weapon, they may have reached drafting him #9 overall.
12

SD

WR

Craig Davis

With good size and speed, Davis will have every opportunity to win a starting job with the Chargers in 2007. Davis is best suited for man-to-man coverage and in SD's system, he should see plenty of single defender coverage as long as the ground game is going strong with LaDainian Tomlinson.
13

Chicago

TE

Greg Olsen

The best Fantasy TE prospect to come out of the 2007 NFL Draft, Olsen should see plenty of balls thrown his way when he's on the field. While he's not much of a blocker, Olsen has what it takes to get open at the NFL level. Think a mix of Todd Heap and Dallas Clark.
14

NO

WR

Robert Meachem

A speedster with good size, rookie Robert Meachem will be playing his home games inside on the turf and that's to his advantage. In addition, Meachem is on track to become the Saints #2 WR playing along side of Marques Colston. Because the Saints have a number of weapons, opposing defenses will not always be able to jam Meachem and that should cover up one of his weaknesses. On paper, he has all the skills needed to start in the NFL.
15

Miami

QB

John Beck

Beck is Miami's eventual starting QB and he could nail down the job some time during the 2007 season. Beck is a mix of Philip Rivers and Marc Bulger. On the plus side, he's a very accurate passer when it comes to shorter routes and he excels at getting the ball out in a hurry. In addition, Beck has the ability to read and react to opposing defenses. On the down side, he may not be able to stand up to an NFL pounding and he could struggle on his deep throws.
16

Minnesota

WR

Sidney Rice

The Vikings need help at WR. With last year's early 1st round draft pick Troy Williamson struggling, they reached for Rice mid-way into the 2nd round of the 2007 draft. Rice is a tall receiver and at times he was very hard to stop along the sidelines in college. Still, he needs plenty of work to become a distinguished NFL receiver -- his route running certainly could improve. Because the Vikings depth chart is currently thin at WR, Rice should see his fair share of action as a rookie.
17

Cincinnati

RB

Kenny Irons

With RB Chris Perry still nursing his ankle, the Bengals selected Kenny Irons to compete for the backup RB role behind Rudi Johnson. Irons has decent speed and has good presence in the pocket blocking. In addition, he’s a decent receiver especially in the flat. When you add it all up, Irons looks well positioned to be the Bengals 3rd down back. If he can hold up to the pounding of the NFL, he could eventually become a starting NFL back. The big question is his lack of upper body power.
18

Detroit

QB

Drew Stanton

He has size and decent mobility however he’s a project in the works at the NFL level. Stanton needs to get rid of the ball quicker and improve his consistency. That said, he’s stepping into a pass-happy Mike Martz offensive scheme with several highly talented receivers currently on the roster. Any way you cut it, this was a nice spot for Stanton to land in. He'll be working with veteran QB Jon Kitna and learning from Martz. Fantasy wise, Stanton probably won't fully register on the radar until 2009. Still, if Kitna were to get hurt and Stanton develops quickly, he could beat out backup Dan Orlovsky and be throwing the ball 35-40 times a game.
19

NYG

WR

Steve Smith

With Amani Toomer pushing his mid-30ies and Sinorice Moss underachieving, rookie WR Steve Smith should get his chance to start for the New York Giants sooner than later. While he’s not in Marvin’s class, on good days in college, Smith looked like he was cut from the same mold as Marvin Harrison. On the down side, he’s had an ankle injury, lacks elite raw speed and has a diminutive frame. Time will tell if his game transfers to the next level, but he’s one guy to keep an eye one.
20

Carolina

WR

Dwayne Jarrett

Good hands, a big frame and a hard worker who likes to run block, Dwayne Jarrett will be a possession receiver in the NFL. As a 2nd round draft pick, the word around Carolina is they expect him to become the team’s #2 WR this season. From a fantasy standpoint, with outstanding size and marginal speed, he’ll do most of his best work in the red zone and on short third down routes.
21

Miami

RB

Lorenzo Booker

He’s much better running outside the tackle box, Booker has good hands for a RB coming out of the backfield. At present, Booker projects to be a third-down back in the NFL. The Dolphins hope he can eventually become a player in the mold of Warrick Dunn. Booker is a dangerous runner when out in space however his small frame makes him an injury risk.
22

Chicago

RB

Garrett Wolfe

In college he showed excellent skills as a runner averaging 6.6 yards per carry three seasons in a row. Wolfe is a flashy, elusive runner and plays bigger than his 5’ 7’’ frame suggests. Thanks to his cuts, he could be a potential big-play option in the NFL. However, durability and blocking will be a major issue. For now, he’s behind Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson on the Bears RB depth chart.
23

Saints

RB

Antonio Pittman

Pittman is a decent RB with adequate all-around skills. While he’s not blessed with elusive moves, we’ve seen him get the job done running inside and outside the tackle box. From a fantasy standpoint, the Saints are loaded at RB with Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and Aaron Stecker. The upshot? New Orleans drafting Pittman may be bad news for Stecker. Pittman could make for a nice value pick for those drafting rookies in a keeper league after some of the big names come off the board.
24

Oakland

TE

Zach Miller

Miller isn’t the fastest rookie TE and he’s not the biggest, but his receiving skills and agility make he a legitimate threat working against NFL zone coverage. Our biggest concern with Miller is injuries. He’s not been able to stay health. Overall as an NFL prospect, he ranks behind Vernon Davis and Heath Miller when they came out, but is ahead of TEs Anthony Fasano, Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens when they were drafted into the NFL.
25

Oakland

RB

Michael Bush

If he had not hurt his leg his senior year in college, he might have been the 2nd RB drafted in 2007. Overall, we still consider Michael Bush a solid short-yardage NFL prospect. He has powerful legs and is a physical runner. Think Jerome Bettis late in his career. Long term, if you’re looking to land this rookie on your Fantasy team, he’s going to be most valuable in TD-heavy leagues. Short term, he’s coming back from injury and figures to be deep on the Raiders depth chart as he battles LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes, ReShard Lee and Justin Fargas for playing time.
26

Packers

WR

James Jones

In the very best case, he’ll take Donald Driver’s #1 WR spot away in 2008 or 2009. Jones is a very powerful guy for a WR and he’s not afraid to work over the middle of the field. Think Anquan Bolden, but without as much speed and with hands that still need plenty of work. Because the Packers need help at WR now, Jones will be given every opportunity to see his fair share of playing time in 2007. In the most likely case, he doesn’t look like a Fantasy stud WR, but he should be able to make the Packers roster this year as a possession and short-yardage route runner.
27

StL

RB

Brian Leonard

The most complete Fullback on the 2007 NFL draft board. About the only thing Leonard lacks is top-end speed. Good vision and moves, Leonard is certainly NFL material, but don't expect him to be a fantasy RB stud any time soon as he’ll be used more as an H-Back, FB and TE in the NFL. His best attribute is working as a receiver out of the backfield. A highly versatile offensive weapon, Leonard should become the Rams #2 RB this season. Leonard may steal touches away from Stephen Jackson on third downs.
28

Tennessee

WR

Paul Williams

Wide receiver may have been the Titans biggest need going into the 2007 draft. Given that, Paul Williams will have every opportunity to compete for playing time this season. In addition, the Titans like Williams’ size and strength. All that said , we still feel Williams has a lot to prove. He was rather inconsistent at Fresno State. Keep in mind despite all his physical talents he only scored one TD his senior year.
29

Minnesota

WR

Aundrae Allison

He’s going to need some coaching at the next level, but given the Vikings lack of depth at WR, Allison could emerge as a wide receiver down the line. Because he’s not a great route runner but has excellent quickness, he’ll be more of a threat in man coverage and not against zone schemes. Bottom line. We like his speed and hands but short term, he looks to become a return specialist in the NFL.
30

49ers

WR

Jason Hill

SF made a decent pick drafting for need and landing Hill. He had a solid college career and is one of the best route runners in the 2007 rookie draft. Hill could see his fair share of playing time even as a rookie given the looks of SF’s current depth chart. Still, Hill only has average hands so don’t count on that much for now.
31

Jacksonville

WR

Mike Walker

He has good size and amazing speed for a 6-ft 2-in WR. What he lacks is big-time college football experience coming from the University of Central Florida. On paper Walker has it all including good hands working as a possession receiver and near elite 40-time posting a 4.3 40. Walker is not easy to predict. That said, most small college kids with similar raw talent as Walker don’t end up making a big splash in the NFL as a wide receiver. The Jags like his physical skills and they always seem to need help at WR so time will tell.
32

Philadelphia

QB

Kolb Kevin

Philly is known for its short-passing game via the West Cost system. Kolb excels at the short passing game. In fact, he completed over 67% of his throws his senior year at Houston. In addition to his accuracy Kolb also has decent arm strength. For now, Donovan McNabb is firmly placed as the Eagles #1 QB, however Kolb will get his chance down the line and he fits Philly's offensive scheme.
33

Atlanta

WR

Laurent Robinson

Robinson has a huge upside given his excellent speed and height. On the downside, he needs work as a receiver. He could become a go-to for Vick, but not this year. In 2007, he figures to be a third, fourth of fifth receiving option. Robinson is worth keeping your eye on.
34

Buffalo

QB

Trent Edwards

He’s tall, strong and well built. Still, Edwards made plenty of ill-advised throws in college and will need to cut down his INTs to make it in the NFL. Learning the Bills system might help. Other than his hulking size, Edwards fits the bill as a guy who's decent in all areas, but not great in any. Don't count on him being an NFL starter as long as JP Losman is held in good esteem in Buffalo.
35

Houston

WR

Jacoby Jones

He’s a project in the making. Jones has excellent burst and with NFL coaching he could become a steal for the Texans. He could be dangerous after the catch but he lacks upper body strength and he could get muscled out in the NFL. In drafting Jones, the Texans were willing to roll the dice in hopes of landing a WR with big-play potential. Jones is a nice fit for Houston so keep his name on your radar screen. Bottom line. Huge upside potential but could also be a bust.
36

Philadelphia

RB

Tony Hunt

Landing Hunt in the 3rd round was a respectable value pick for Philly. He might become a decent change of pace runner to give Brian Westbrook a blow during games in 2007. Hunt is a power runner with decent hands working as a receiver. On paper, he looks to complement Westbrook’s flashy outside running style. Worth noting, as the season goes on, Hunt could take some goal-line work away from Westbrook.
37

Packers

K

Mason Crosby

Crosby has a strong leg and was the best kicker to come out of the 2007 class. He has a better than 50-50 chance to beat out Dave Rayner for Green Bay FG kicking duties in 2007. If he wins the job he’ll be best in leagues that give big points for long FGs.
38

Baltimore

WR

Yamon Figurs

Figurs is the fastest runner among the 2007 WR class. He has a huge upside do to his exceptional open field skills. That said, he might not do much on offense aside from returning punts and kickoffs in 2007. He'll compete for the Ravens #3 job this season but likely fall a little short as a rookie. Because he’s only 175-pounds, he’s going to have some problems beating press coverage if he lines up as a wide receiver. If he contributes as a wide receiver down the line, look for Figurs to be working from the slot.
39

KC

RB

Kolby Smith

With Larry Johnson and Michael Bennett in front of him, barring injury, Smith won’t be seeing many rushing attempts in 2007. In 2008, he should become KC’s #2 RB. Smith reads blocks well and is going to be most effective working outside the tackle box in the NFL. Capable of the big-play and being on a team that thinks run first, Smith could be useful to select in your rookie fantasy draft, but don’t expect that much any time soon.
40

SF

RB

Thomas Clayton

The 49ers took a gamble on Thomas, a guy with some off-field baggage. On the plus side, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry while playing with the Kansas State Wildcats. If he gets his act together, Thomas could become the 49ers #2 RB this season. With good power, speed and receiving skills, he has the physical tools needed to become an NFL RB. Still, he also has a history of not playing up to his natural ability.
41

Oakland

WR

Johnnie Higgins

At only 185-pounds, he projects more like a kick return specialist and perhaps a #3 slot receiver in the NFL. On the plus side, Higgins is very quick and a big-play threat in open space. Due to his great first step, he might be able to work in the slot down the road but for now, at best he looks more like a 4th receiving option for Oakland.
42

Tennessee

WR

Chris Davis

Another smallish WR, Davis lacks the size/speed ratio to become a star NFL receiver. However, Davis could evolve into a #3 WR down the line. In addition, he might be able to contribute returning kicks. Also on the plus side, he gets off the line well and is harder to jam at the line than most guys his size.
43

Packers

WR

David Clowney

A decent looking receiver, Clowney has good hands and good speed. However, he lacks upper body strength and his blocking, durability and ability to avoiding the jam could all limit his upside in the NFL. Short term, he’ll be competing for the Packers third receiving spot.
44

Carolina

WR

Ryne Robinson

The team sees him more as a punt return man. He’ll compete with fellow rookie WR Dwayne Jarrett and veterans Keary Colbert and Drew Carter for playing time at WR. Right now, Robinson looks to be #4 on that list. Long term, if he can’t make it on special teams, he will have to fight just to make the team. At 5-9 he lacks ideal NFL size however he’s a very competitive player in the mold of teammate Steve Smith. Despite his good hands and elusive running style, don’t count on Robinson for more than special teams and punt returning in 2007.
45

Cardinals

TE

Ben Patrick

The Cardinals will look to him more as a receiving TE. In addition, Patrick has good size and decent speed. The bad news, he needs plenty of work as a blocker and that will limit his playing time. Given the Cardinals lack talent at TE, Patrick should make the team and could perhaps steal a few TDs away from AZ’s big guns.
46

Indianapolis

WR

Roy Hall

The Colts see him as a long-term project that could pay off some day. On paper, Hall has all the requirements to be an NFL receiver including size and speed. A very raw talent, he is a true boom or bust pick that could pay off in maybe 2-3 years.
47

SD

WR

Legedu Naanee

He only made 74 receptions in four years at Boise State. Naanee is a real NFL long shot, boom or bust pick. On the plus side, he has great size and speed. Basically, he’s a great athlete and the Chargers must be willing to give him several years to learn the position. Bottom line. A very captivating NFL prospect but a very risky NFL selection.
48

KC

K

Justin Medlock

As a rookie Medlock will compete with KC's Lawrence Tynes. Medlock has above average leg power but must improve his accuracy. He could start out as a kickoff specialist than become a starting field-goal kicker. Worth noting, Medlock is more than capable of making 50+ yard field goals in the NFL.
49

Dallas

QB/WR

Isaiah Stanback

He only completed 51% of his throws in college but he has excellent speed and has the potential to be a playmaker in the NFL probably as a WR or "slash" type player. He's easily the best running QB in the 2007 draft. If Stanback plays QB, he'll be a great scrambler and he's capable of making some nice thrown on the run. For now, he’s going to be deep on the bench, as he really needs to improve his throwing accuracy to make it as an NFL QB. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys try to work him into the lineup as a third receiver or on a handful of trick plays this year. If he shows anything in camp, he should make the team.
50

Pittsburgh

TE

Matt Spaeth

The team sees him as a blocking TE first and a possible redzone target second. Speath has huge size and could be a decent weapon around the goal. Otherwise, he’s nothing that special as a Fantasy prospect.