Marvin Harrison … 60-yard touchdown!

Randy Moss … 80-yard touchdown!

Watching one of your wide receivers haul in a long touchdown pass is one of the most exciting parts of fantasy football. However, there are only a handful of true superstar wide receivers that routinely make these kinds of big plays.

One of the keys to fielding a great roster is strength at the wide receiver position.

Unfortunately it’s not always easy to obtain a superstar wideout. If you want a player like Chad Johnson, Steve Smith or Terrell Owens you had better be prepared to draft them early this year. Of course, doing so can leave your squad weak at the all-important running back position.

Those playing in keeper leagues may not even have that choice, since the owners of the elite wide receivers will be very reluctant to ever let them go to another team.

So…

If you can’t have Randy Moss or Marvin Harrison, how do you find the next Randy Moss or Marvin Harrison?

Is it possible to buy low on a young wide receiver that has the potential to become one of the game’s next true superstars? And, if so, how do you find these players?

To answer these questions, let’s examine the wide receivers that are currently at the top of the NFL rankings.

THE CURRENT STARS
The chart below lists ten of the best wide receivers now playing.

Some, like Santana Moss, had banner efforts in 2005.

Others, like Owens and Randy Moss, are included because of their historical track record.

There are also some receivers who had very good years in 2005, but are not included in our summary. Donald Driver had a nice season, but with all due respect, who really goes into a draft looking for the next Donald Driver? It is the next true game-breaker that we are in search of.

All that being said, here is my chart…



Next to each name you will see various pieces of information about each receiver. We are looking at this information so we can find common attributes. What do these great receivers have in common? What mutual traits do players like Larry Fitzgerald and Marvin Harrison share? And can this information about these great wide receivers help us find other young players who may soon be joining their ranks?

For the sake of this discussion, I’ll call my results “rules”, even though they certainly are not hard and fast facts. There are exceptions to each one of them. However, I believe we can benefit most from the rules, not the exceptions.


THE CATEGORIES

COLLEGE/CONFERENCE
It should come as no real surprise that most of the game’s star wide receivers come from the premiere football universities and conferences. Our chart shows that this is definitely the case.

It is interesting to note that three of our ten, Santana Moss, Boldin, and Holt, all played in the ACC. The biggest exception? The walking exception himself, Terrell Owens, who played at Tennessee-Chattanooga in the Division 1-AA Southern Conference. However, our rule here is clear: Great wide receivers tend to come from the major universities and conferences.

DRAFT ROUND
Before you decide where to draft a young wide receiver in your fantasy league, wouldn’t it make sense to see where he was drafted in the NFL? This is important because it shows you what professional football scouts and teams saw as each player’s potential.

Six out of our ten superstar wide receivers were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. None were drafted lower than the third round (Smith and Owens). A general rule that we could take from this information is that superstar wide receivers are taken no later than the third round of the NFL Draft, and most are taken in the first round. For the sake of this particular comparison let’s narrow our rule down to this: Great receivers tend to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

HEIGHT
Hey, I like short people as much as the next guy, but the chart pulls no punches. Seven out of these ten great wide-outs are at least six feet tall. Santana Moss, Smith and Galloway all use their great speed to make up for their height differential, but once again, we can see the overall pattern. The average height of these ten receivers is just a shade under 6’1”. For simplicity’s sake let’s round up and say that our rule is: Great wide receivers tend to be at least 6’1” tall.

OUR RULES
So let’s put our three rules together and see what we have:

Rule #1
Great wide receivers tend to come from the major universities and conferences.

Rule #2
Great wide receivers tend to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Rule #3
Great wide receivers tend to be at least 6’1” tall.

So now that we have these nifty new “rules” - what should we do them?

We can apply them to the young receivers in the NFL to see who matches up. In other words, these rules are our glass slipper, and we are looking for wide receivers for whom the shoe fits (on second thought maybe we should call the rules our glass cleats).

Our pool of candidates will be made up of receivers drafted since 2003.

When screened against the rules, 11 wideouts make the cut. I’ll examine each of these receivers and rate them 1 to 5 on our Breakout Meter.

The 2006 NFL draft can be summed up very quickly for the purposes of this article. The only wide receiver drafted in the 2006 first round was Santonio Holmes by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he is listed at 5’11” tall. In other words, Holmes is a victim of Rule #2 (which keeps us from making up a fourth rule about the number of times arrested in one offseason).


The Candidates…

Michael Clayton
NFL Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
College, Conference: LSU, SEC

NFL Draft Year, Round: 2004, Round 1 Height: 6’3”
Breakout Meter: 4 stars

Clayton certainly looked like he was on the fast track to superstardom during his 1193 yard, seven-touchdown rookie campaign. Unfortunately his sophomore season (32 receptions, 372 yards, 0 TDs) was a huge disappointment. Who is the real Michael Clayton? It turns out a knee problem and fitness issues contributed to his underachieving 2005, and those problems appear to be corrected. Look for a return to form and possibly beyond in 2006.


Braylon Edwards
NFL Team: Cleveland Browns
College, Conference: Michigan, Big Ten
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2005, Round 1
Height: 6’3”
Breakout Meter: 2 stars in 2006, 3.5 stars in 2007

Edwards was just picking up steam last year when he tore a knee ligament in December. He will return to the Browns in 2006, but it is unknown exactly when he will be able to get back on the field. Edwards could be a valuable late season addition if he can pick up where he left off last year. Don’t expect too much, though, since he will be coming off rehabilitation of the knee injury. He should be a definite breakout candidate in 2007.


Michael Jenkins
NFL Team: Atlanta Falcons
College, Conference: Ohio State, Big Ten
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2004, Round 1 (4for4.com Audio with Jenkins)
http://www.ffscouts.com/mjenkins.ram
Height: 6’4”
Breakout Meter: 2.5 stars

Jenkins has all the physical tools, but unfortunately he as a few obstacles in his way to becoming a superstar. Namely…

1) The Falcons like to run the ball
2) Michael Vick likes to run the ball
3) When he does pass, Michael Vick likes to throw to Alge Crumpler
Despite these obstacles, Jenkins did progress from 2004 (7 receptions, 119 yards, 0 TDs) to 2005 (36 receptions, 508 yards, 3 TDs). A similar increase this year is not out of the question, but he will need help from Vick and the rest of the Falcons’ offense.


Andre Johnson
NFL Team: Houston Texans
College, Conference: Miami, ACC
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2003, Round 1
Height: 6’2”
Breakout Meter: 5 stars

Andre Johnson has been considered to be on the verge of really breaking out for the last couple of years. Unluckily for him he has had the misfortune of watching Texans’ offensive game plans routinely turn into David Carr sack-a-thons. Those days could be over with the debut of new offensive-minded head coach Gary Kubiak. Additionally, for the first time in his career Johnson will have another genuine threat lining up with him at the wide receiver position. The addition of Eric Moulds should take defensive coverage away from Johnson, thus opening the door for more big plays. I look for Johnson to explode in 2005.


Bryant Johnson
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
College, Conference: Penn State, Big Ten
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2003, Round 1
Height: 6’2”
Breakout Meter: 1.5 stars

If Andre Johnson was starving for more offensive talent in his huddle, Bryant Johnson may be smothered by it. Simply put, Johnson will have limited opportunities with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Edgerrin James around. To make matters worse, in three seasons Johnson has done nothing to show he will ever be more than a mediocre receiver (exactly one touchdown in each of his first three seasons). That being said, when he is on the field Johnson will have one-on-one matchups, and if he can beat them he could register a few scores.


Matt Jones
NFL Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College, Conference: Arkansas, SEC
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2005, Round 1
Height: 6’6”
Breakout Meter: 4 stars

For a former college quarterback Jones did a pretty good impersonation of an NFL wide receiver in his rookie year (36 receptions, 432 yards, 5 TDs). Jones is blessed with superior height and blazing speed, and he will also have an excellent opportunity in 2006. Jimmy Smith’s retirement leaves an open starting position, and Jones is on the fast track to win that job. Jones still has a lot to learn about playing wide receiver, but look for steady improvement and flashes of greatness.


Charles Rogers
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
College, Conference: Michigan State, Big Ten
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2003, Round 1
Height: 6’2”
Breakout Meter: 2 stars

We have now entered the Detroit Lions segment of our wide receiver evaluations. Please be warned - this could get ugly.

Rogers had two touchdowns in the first game of his NFL career. Sadly for him and the Lions it has been a downhill run of injuries, suspensions and attitude problems since then. The good news for Rogers is that the Mike Martz flying circus has set up its tents in the Motor City in 2006, and Rogers should have an opportunity to compete for a starting job. If he can manage to stay healthy, motivated, and on the team in 2006, Rogers could impress.


Mike Williams
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
College, Conference: USC, Pac 10
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2005, Round 1
Breakout Meter: 2 stars

See Charles Rogers. Williams is another wide receiver drafted in the first round by the Lions, another early disappointment.

Williams put himself in a difficult position by missing a year of football before the draft. He then allegedly reported to camp out of shape and with a questionable attitude. This led to a 29 reception, 350 yard, one touchdown rookie season. The Lions and fantasy owners had to be hoping for more.

Like Rogers, Williams will be given a new opportunity in the Mike Martz offense. However, he is not overly speedy or quick like Martz’s former Rams’ receivers, so it remains to be seen how well Williams can adapt to that system.


Reggie Williams
NFL Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College, Conference: Washington, Pac 10
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2004, Round 1
Height: 6’4”
Breakout Meter: 3 stars

Reggie Williams is another receiver who has yet to become the star his team hoped he would be. In his first two seasons Williams has scored a grand total of one touchdown. Nevertheless, much like Matt Jones, Williams will have an opening afforded to him by Jimmy Smith’s retirement. If he takes advantage of his opportunity Williams still has a chance to become an outstanding receiver.


Roy Williams
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
College, Conference: Texas, Big 12
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2004, Round 1
Height: 6’2”
Breakout Meter: 5 stars

Roy Williams has scored eight touchdowns in each of his first two seasons despite playing in a struggling Lions offense. He has to be licking his chops at the chance to be the featured receiver in a Mike Martz scheme. Plenty of passes will be thrown in Detroit this year, and look for Williams to catch a lot of them. I expect big things from Williams in 2006.


Troy Williamson
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
College, Conference: South Carolina, SEC
NFL Draft Year, Round: 2005, Round 1
Height: 6’2”
Breakout Meter: 3 stars

Williamson had his work cut out from him from the start since many people were expecting him to fill the shoes of Randy Moss in Minnesota. Williamson didn’t quite do that, but he did have a modestly successful rookie season (24 catches, 372 yards, 2 touchdowns) while occasionally appearing in former coach Mike Tice’s wide receiver by committee offense. With new, passing oriented head coach Brad Childress on board the lightning-fast Williamson should have a chance to easily surpass last year’s numbers.


THE BOTTOM LINE
There is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL, but some of the young wide receivers highlighted above should turn into the superstars of tomorrow. The best bets? Roy Williams and Andre Johnson, with Michael Clayton and Matt Jones not far behind.

You should be able to get these receivers for a bargain at your draft or auction. Find a place for them on your roster – you’ll be glad you did when they turn into superstars.