Comments from Burke Griffin - 7/22
Ahman Green is a huge question mark heading into the 2006 season. And as the 2nd leading rusher in GB Packer history, Green feels as though it’s a matter of when, not if he becomes the Packers all-time leader rusher.
Green suffered a patellar tendon tear in his knee in 2005 that sidelined him for the most of the season.
Prior to the injury against the Vikings on the turf of the Metrodome, Green was mostly ineffective and didn’t have a carry over 13 yards. This was partly because of the Packers inexperience and lack of continuity on the offensive line. It signaled the first major sign of Green's decline as a viable plug-n-play FFL running back. If you recall, going into the 2005 season, Green had an Average Draft Postion (ADP) value of 10 when you looked across 100’s of leagues around the country.
FANTASY UPSIDE
From 2000 to 2004 Green had more rushing yards and yards from scrimmage than any player in the NFL, and he was always worth a 1st or 2nd round pick in almost every league.
The Packers training staff hasn't set any sort of a timetable for Green, and his first action carrying the football was in the last minicamp from May 30th to June 21st.
At that time, Green looked like he was well on target for a return to "live" action during the regular season, although Head Coach Mike McCarthy did not say whether or not Green would see full-contact until late in the pre-season.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
Green has always had a great work ethic in the traning room, so if there is one RB who can return from the kind of tear he sustained, it’s probably Ahman. That said, very few players ever return to their prior form with a patellar tendon tear. Two players from Green Bay's recent history come to mind and both of those guys were defensive lineman. Santana Dotson and Steve Warren; neither had any sort of career after their injury.
MY BOTTOM LINE
Green is a major gamble that could payoff royally or have you searching the waiver wire. Investing anything more than a mid-round pick certainly isn’t advisable and considering his Average Draft Position is around 65, you might be able to grab him later in your draft.
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