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WARRICK DUNN
RB - Falcons
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Comments from Parker Hillery - 6/22
FANTASY UPSIDE
For a guy who’s supposed to be too small to last in the NFL, Dunn has put up some pretty impressive numbers over his career including last year (his ninth in the league) in which he rushed for a career-high 1,416 yards. That was after rushing for over 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns in 2005. Dunn is a dangerous player when he gets out into open space and his ability catching the ball out of the backfield helps create some of those opportunities.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
Despite his 1,400+ yards, Dunn only scored three rushing touchdowns last year as he had to give way to T.J. Duckett in short-yardage situations (Duckett scored eight touchdowns on only 380 yards rushing). There have been some rumblings that rookie Jerious Norwood is pushing Duckett for the number two job, but Norwood is more likely the eventual replacement to Warrick Dunn as the featured back and could begin to cut into Dunn’s carries. Keep in mind Norwood is a blazer and a much faster straight-line runner than Dunn.
MY BOTTOM LINE
Dunn is not among the group of elite running backs but he has been a valuable number two fantasy back the last couple of years. Keep an eye on the Norwood/Duckett situation. If all three are on the team when the season starts, it could be an ugly situation for fantasy owners – the dreaded running back by committee. Dunn is already losing short-yardage carries and he can’t afford to lose any more touches. However, there have also been some trade rumors involving Duckett. If the Falcons deal Duckett before the start of the season, Dunn should hold down the starting job and put up solid numbers. I expect fewer yards than last year, but probably a couple more touchdowns.
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Comments from DJ Boyer - 6/22
FANTASY UPSIDE
Just when you think this is finally the year that the Falcons are ready to make T.J. Duckett the feature back, Dunn has a career-year. Dunn carried the football 280 times for 1,416 yards in 2005 both career highs. The team seems to be going away from T.J. Duckett when it comes to long-term plans so Dunn should still be a productive player in 2006. Dunn has always shown the ability to catch the football and makes people miss in the open field. Dunn had 13 plays of 20 yards or more from scrimmage last season so he still shows big play potential.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
Dunn may get all the yards but Duckett still gets the rushing touchdowns. Despite having over 1,400 yards in 2005 Dunn had only 3 rushing touchdowns; Duckett had 8. In the last 4 seasons Duckett has 31 rushing touchdowns to 22 for Dunn. Dunn also reached the 30-year old plateau last year and the Falcons did draft another running back in April with Jerious Norwood out of Mississippi State.
MY BOTTOM LINE
It’s going to be hard for Dunn to duplicate his numbers from 2005 but I expect another 1000-yard season with 5-6 touchdowns rushing and 1-2 receiving. Dunn is at the age where he may start seeing a decline in production in a couple of seasons. Many rank Dunn outside the top 30 overall at the running back position in Dynasty Leagues and outside the top 20 in Redraft leagues, both rankings which I feel are too low. I think questioning Dunn is the wrong thing to do because he has always proven his neigh Sayers wrong. Drafting Dunn in the 4th round (about 38th overall) looks like a value move in my book.
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What Next?
Be sure to check out the following...
a)
Full Impact Draft Simulator
b)
Full Impact Customized Cheat Sheets
c)
Ultimate Cheat Sheets
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