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JAKE DELHOMME
QB - Panthers
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Comments from Jeff Owens - 7/15
Whether it is the in-game mental blow-ups on teammates or his penchant for getting the job done at all costs, there is no mystery to Jake Delhomme. He’s a gamer, a guy every coach, albeit fantasy owner, would love to have. While some may question the talent, you can’t question the consistency. His three years in Carolina have averaged out to over 3,500 yards passing and 24 touchdowns per season.
FANTASY UPSIDE
With Muhsin Muhammad in 2004 (93-1,405-16TD) and Steve Smith in 2005 (103-1,563-12TD), Delhomme arguably had the league’s top receiver the last two seasons. But the problem has been getting production from a No. 2 receiver. The free-agent signing of Keyshawn Johnson, a possession receiver with 18-3rd down conversions last season, takes care of that. Johnson’s 2005 production in Dallas alone (71-839-6TD) eclipses the 54 receptions and 826 yards in the combined efforts of Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert, and the up-and-coming Drew Carter.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
In 2005, only three NFL quarterbacks fumbled more than Delhomme’s 12, six of which were lost. Also of note is that Carolina’s division, the AFC South, has excellent pass-defensive teams in Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans.
MY BOTTOM LINE
Johnson will give Delhomme more one-on-one matchups with Smith this year, which is scary considering Smith is 4for4.com’s leading receiver in value with an Average Draft Position (ADP) ranking of 14th overall. Johnson will also get in on the action with 60-70 catches and RB DeShawn Foster, (34-372-1TD) or if Foster gets hurt again,1st round pick DeAngelo Williams, will apply the necessary receiving threat out of the backfield. Simply put, Delhomme has a goldmine of targets and should challenge his numbers of 2004 (3,886-29TD-242ypg).
I fully expect Delhomme (#76 in ADP, 10th QB overall) to have a career year and exceed several QB’s projected ahead of him. Look for 3,900 yards and 33 touchdowns, making him a top five QB and a major steal outside of the Top 5 rounds.
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Comments from Kevin Rosebrook - 7/14
Over the past two seasons, only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have thrown for more touchdowns than Jake Delhomme. In that same period, Delhomme ranks 6th in passing yards. Great fantasy numbers, right? So how can Jake be so low on our ADP, coming in as the 10th ranked QB at #76?
FANTASY UPSIDE
So why take Jake in 2006? Is it because he’s third in TDs over ’04 and ’05, or because he’s got Steve Smith to throw to, or because he’s one of the most consistent NFL QBs on a pre-season favorite to win the Super Bowl? The main reason I want Jake on my fantasy team this year is simply because I can draft him at #76.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
Under Coach John Fox, the Panthers are and will continue to be a defensive team first, with a primary focus on running when they do have the ball. The result: 22nd in Total Offense in 2005. The fantasy fact, however, is that Jake scores points, period.
MY BOTTOM LINE
I do think average draft position is right on. So if you’re in a 10-team league that means that you can draft seven players before you get to Jake. That’s practically your entire starting lineup.
Every good fantasy player knows that RBs win Championships. In each of my three leagues last year, Larry Johnson carried his fantasy team to the Championship, one of which was mine.
Peyton’s not going to win a title for you this year, I can almost guarantee it. You need two solid RBs to win the title, and being able to get a QB as consistent as Delhomme, who’ll bring you 2 TDs and 200 yards with your seventh pick is too incredible to pass up.
Want more reasons to take Jake? Keyshawn Johnson, and Keary Colbert. Keary will be back to form. X factor is Keyshawn. All 6 of his touchdowns last year came in the red zone. I look for plenty of Jake-to-Keyshawn when Carolina gets inside the 20.
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Comments from Stan Feldman - 6/25
FANTASY UPSIDE
Jake Delhomme is the perfect example of a third-tier fantasy player. He isn't going to win you more than a game or two, and he certainly will not carry your team to the playoffs. But his value is there as a fantasy role player, especially considering the supporting cast surrounding him on one of the NFC's most talented teams.
As a QB, Delhomme's value hinges on the offensive weapons around him. Last year, Steve Smith was the most explosive receiver in football. Without a true second threat, Delhomme produced 24 TD passes, good enough for 4th in the NFL. Smith's presence alone is enough to garner the trust of fantasy owners, but in an attempt to take a largely one-dimensional offense to the next level, Carolina added Keyshawn Johnson through free agency and DeAngelo Williams in the draft. This is an offense ready to take an enormous leap in 2006 with Delhomme at the helm.
The aging Johnson can still provide the receiving corps with a lot of muscle, especially in the red zone where Delhomme will look for the large receiver both in the corners and over the middle. Williams will begin the season as the second back on the depth chart. He should be given plenty of opportunities considering DeShaun Foster's injury history and his own youthful speed and agility which could translate to a number of receptions, especially on third down. His potential to break the big one plays very favorably into Delhomme's value.
FANTASY DOWNSIDE
Foster, however, is the key to Delhomme's season. Coming off surgery for a broken fibula, he is expected to be ready for training camp. If he can stay healthy (a BIG if), he could make a Pro-Bowl leap. His ability to catch balls out of the backfield will give Delhomme a versatile third option, and his home-run rushing style, showcased against the Falcons and Giants at the end of last season and in the playoffs, should open passing lanes across the field, especially deep routes for Smith.
MY BOTTOM LINE
Overall, Delhomme has the potential to be a top-5 QB but will most likely fall between the 7th and 9th player taken at the position. Consider him a solid value around the 7th round and a steal anytime later than the 9th.
As far as 4for4.com's ADP, Delhomme is without a doubt worth more than questionable running backs such as Fred Taylor and Chris Brown. Ultimately, he should surprise many owners this season and will probably finish ahead of QB's such as Marc Bulger (who lost pass-happy Mike Martz) and Michael Vick (who has yet to prove himself reliable by any scale).
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What Next?
Be sure to check out the following...
a)
Full Impact Draft Simulator
b)
Full Impact Customized Cheat Sheets
c)
Ultimate Cheat Sheets
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