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Fantasy football coaches are always looking for any edge when it comes to the draft. Late-round gems like the players Dan LaBert discusses in his column, “Flying Under The Radar”, can often be the key to fantasy glory. To that end, one of the most talked about trends in fantasy football is the “Third-Year Receiver” trend. While a talented running back can often make an impact in his rookie year, it usually takes a couple of full seasons for a wide receiver to blossom. Need some evidence? Allright, check out some of these numbers:
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First Year
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Second Year
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Third Year
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Player
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rod
Smith
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6
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152
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1
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16
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237
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2
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70
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1180
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12
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Eric
Moulds
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20
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279
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2
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29
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294
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0
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67
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1368
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9
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Terrell
Owens
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35
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520
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4
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60
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936
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8
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67
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1097
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14
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Santana
Moss
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2
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40
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0
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30
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433
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4
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74
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1105
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10
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Ashley
Lelie
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35
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525
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2
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37
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628
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2
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54
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1084
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7
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Javon
Walker
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23
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319
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1
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41
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716
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9
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89
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1382
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12
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A couple of these guys, like Owens and Walker, put up decent numbers in their second seasons, but Owens almost doubled his TD production in his third year while Walker almost doubled his yardage. The rest of these guys were hardly even viable fantasy backups before transforming into studs in their third seasons. It takes some time for most receivers to adjust to the speed of the pro game, the superior coverage corners and to develop chemistry with the QB.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some receivers who will be entering their third season this year:
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Michael
Clayton, TB
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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80
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1193
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7
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32
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372
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0
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??
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????
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??
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The Bucs signed David Boston in the offseason, but Clayton is the guy they will really be expecting big things from. After a tremendous rookie year in which he set team rookie records with 80 catches for 1,193 yards, Clayton suffered through injuries in his second year and his numbers went way down. The former LSU standout has been participating in offseason drills this year and has even dropped some weight. Clayton is a tough, young player who is mature beyond his years and should rebound nicely in his third season.
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Drew
Carter, CAR
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
|
TDs
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0
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0
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0
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9
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234
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2
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??
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????
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??
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Keary
Colbert, CAR
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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47
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754
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5
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28
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322
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2
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??
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????
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??
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After Colbert’s disappointing sophomore year, the Panthers signed Keyshawn Johnson in the offseason to play the number two role opposite Steve Smith. Colbert will now be battling Drew Carter for the number three spot in training camp. It will be interesting to see who wins this battle as Colbert is more of a possession guy while Carter has elite speed (Carter beat Smith in a foot race in last year’s training camp). Either way, Smith will continue to get most of the catches in Carolina, but whoever wins this battle could have some opportunities if either Smith or Johnson gets injured.
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Lee
Evans, BUF
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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|
48
|
843
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9
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49
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743
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7
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??
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????
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??
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Evans’ numbers over his first couple of seasons have been very impressive for a young receiver, especially when you consider the quarterback issues the Bills have had, flip-flopping between J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb. If new head coach Dick Jauron can get one guy to step up and take control of this offense, Evans could be in for a huge year. He’ll still have running back Willis McGahee to keep defenses honest and receiver Peerless Price is back in Buffalo to fill the number two role opposite Evans.
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Larry
Fitzgerald, AZ
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
|
TDs
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|
58
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780
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8
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103
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1409
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10
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??
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????
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??
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After his first two seasons, we can’t really say we’re looking for a “breakout” season from Fitzgerald. His projections for this upcoming season actually have him producing fewer receiving yards than he did in 2005 and he’s still the fourth ranked receiver in the 4for4 rankings. Not bad for a guy just entering his third season. The addition of Edgerrin James at running back could lead to a few less opportunities in 2006, but Fitzgerald is being drafted near the end of the second round of most drafts (18 ADP) and I’d take him there without a second thought.
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Michael
Jenkins, ATL
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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|
10
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145
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0
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36
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508
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3
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??
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????
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??
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The biggest thing working against Jenkins is having Michael Vick for a quarterback. He’ll also be battling second-year man Roddy White for the top spot in this receiving corps. Keep an eye on this situation in training camp. The Falcons want to see these young receivers step up and they’ll be given every opportunity to do so. Neither receiver is being drafted very high so whoever ends up as the number one receiver could end up being a decent late round pick.
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Samie
Parker, KC
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2004
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2005
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2006
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
|
TDs
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9
|
137
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1
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36
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533
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3
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??
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????
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??
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Parker has had some injury issues, but he still improved a great deal from his first season to his second. At 5’11”, 190, Parker is small, speedy receiver who can get downfield and gain yards after the catch. He’s not a real red zone threat, especially with guys like Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson around. Still, Parker has big play potential (currently ranked 23rd among all receivers) and he’s another guy worth taking a flyer on late in the draft.
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