This early in the fantasy football season, it’s tough to start putting together a draft list because of how much time there is between now and the start of the regular season. So many things could happen. Will someone emerge as the go-to guy in the Green Bay backfield or will it be running back by committee? Are Drew Brees, Daunte Culpepper and/or Carson Palmer going to be able to prove they’re recovered from last year’s injuries? Will TO cause problems in Dallas before the season even starts? Right now, there are more questions than answers when it comes to the 2006 season. That’s why now is the time to look back to 2005.

Previous year’s stats are too important to ignore when projecting a player’s fantasy value for the upcoming season, but one of the biggest mistakes fantasy owners often make is placing too much stock in a player’s previous performance. Check out 4for4.com’s articles on “Consistency Factor” and “Prior Year Factor” for more on this. Both articles provide some great insights into the pitfalls of relying too heavily on stats from previous years and also let you know some of the things you should be looking for when examining a player’s statistics.

Armed with that information, here are some players who could be overvalued and some who could be undervalued based solely on last year’s statistics.


Overvalued

Last year was one of Brunell’s best seasons statistically. His 23 touchdowns were a career high and he eclipsed the 3,000 yard mark for the first time since 2001. On top of that, the Redskins added receivers Antwan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd to go with Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. Seems like Brunell is in for another big year in 2006, right? Don’t be so sure. Even with the addition of Al Saunders as OC, this is still Joe Gibbs’ team and it will be a Joe Gibbs offense.

The article “Consistency Factor” article mentioned earlier warns about giving too much weight to Dazzling Finishers and Fading Heroes, but take a look at Brunell’s last five weeks of 2005 and compare them with Portis’ numbers over those weeks. Portis averaged 26 carries per game over those five weeks and rushed for over 100 yards in each game and only failed to score a touchdown in one of them. Over that same span, Brunell never threw for more than 163 yards in a game and while he did toss eight touchdowns, four of those came in one game.

As Dan LaBert mentioned in his profile of Brunell, the additions of Randle El and Lloyd will now prevent defenses from loading up the box to stop the run and will allow Gibbs to continue to rely on his $50 million running back for offensive production. You also can’t forget about the fact that Brunell will turn 36 this season and former first-round pick Jason Campbell is just waiting for his opportunity to take over.

Jones had the best season of his career last year and was a solid fantasy contributor in just about every game he played. Jones would easily be a top 15 back, possibly top 10, based solely on his 2005 numbers. As tough as it is to find good running backs in fantasy football, a 1,300-yard, nine touchdown guy is hard to pass up, but you might want to consider a couple of things before you use an early pick on Jones.

First of all, despite being a non-factor last year, Cedric Benson is still in Chicago and he’s making an awful lot of money for a benchwarmer. Teams do not draft players in the first round, let alone with the fourth overall pick, to have him waste away on the bench. Benson held out longer than any other first-round pick last year then suffered through some injuries as the season wore on and he never really challenged Jones for the job. This year will be a different story.

Further complicating the matter is Jones’ displeasure with his current contract. Jones has been skipping voluntary workouts this offseason and that has not made head coach Lovie Smith happy. It remains to be seen if Jones will be willing to hold of training camp for a new contract, but it’s obvious he wants to cash in on what he did last year. Could Benson looking over his shoulder maybe have something to do with that?

All of the same concerns regarding Mark Brunell above apply here as well. As Portis gets more touches, there will be fewer opportunities for Moss. In week-16 last year, Moss had 160 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Other than that game, he only scored in one touchdown after week seven and never had more than 83 yards receiving.

After his breakout season in 2003 when Moss finished with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns, he was held to 838 yards and his touchdowns were cut in half to five in 2004. Don’t be surprised if Moss experiences a similar slump in 2006 as defenses key on him and the Redskins turn to their running game and other receiving targets (Randle El, Lloyd and Cooley).


Undervalued

After breaking his ankle during the team's first play of its week 12 game against the Cardinals, Leftwich was sidelined for the rest of the regular season leaving fantasy owners to scramble right around playoff time. Injury concerns will undoubtedly drop Leftwich on many people’s boards and that is going to leave the young quarterback available at a very reasonable spot in the draft.

The Jaguars offense is loaded with young talent and Leftwich has already proven capable of putting up big numbers when he’s in the game. From week 1 to 11, Leftwich failed to throw a touchdown only once and he scored multiple touchdowns in six games. Although he never broke 300 yards, he racked up over 200 passing yards six times as well. Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams make up one of the most talented, young group of receivers in the NFL and they’re only getting better. In addition, Leftwich will have rookie tight end Marcedes Lewis to throw to and Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, LaBrandon Toefield and another rookie, Maurice Drew, in the backfield.

Despite the injury last year, Leftwich is a tough QB who can play through pain and should prove to be a consistent performer for several years to come.

After rushing for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2004, Jones suffered a sophomore slump in 2005 in which he was held to 664 yards and five touchdowns. Owners only concerned with last year’s numbers will be scared away from Jones and drop him considerably on their draft boards.

However, Detroit is one of the best examples of why previous year’s numbers can only get you so far. The Lions of 2006 will be significantly different from the squad that took the field in 2005. Rod Marinelli has taken over as head coach. Mike Martz has taken over as offensive coordinator. Jon Kitna will most likely be taking over at quarterback.

Kitna will do a better job of managing the offense and not allowing defenses to stack up against the run. Martz will find a way to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers – that means Roy Williams and Kevin Jones. This team isn’t going to be the second coming of “The Greatest Show on Turf”, but Jones is going to provide excellent value as a cheap number two back.

Sixteen tight ends finished last year with more receiving yards than Miller. While his six touchdowns were fifth best among his position, Miller didn’t score once after week eight. Based solely on his numbers, there are quite a few options out there more enticing than the Pittsburgh tight end.

However, Miller was a rookie last year and is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Add in the fact that Antwaan Randle El went to Washington in the offseason and Miller’s role in the offense should expand even more in 2006. While Willie Parker and Duce Staley still provide the Steelers plenty of talent in the backfield to keep defenses honest, Jerome Bettis’ retirement should open up some opportunities in red zone situations, which is where Miller should really thrive.