One of the most popular topics in fantasy football this time of year is potential sleepers. Chances are, if you’re thinking about your draft, you’re thinking about those late round gems nobody knows about but you. Well it’s true that a diamond in the rough here or there can often make your draft, but it’s also true that a bust here or there can also kill it.

So what exactly is a bust? How about a guy who finishes the year as the 12th best running back? He must have put up some pretty good numbers. But what if you drafted that guy with the fifth overall pick? That means you left seven other running backs on the board who put up better numbers. That’s a bust.

Sure it’s great to know when to pull the trigger on that sleeper pick you’ve been waiting on, but knowing when to let that big name guy with BUST written all over him pass by can be just as important. With that in mind, here are some names you might want to avoid:

Edgerrin James, RB, AZ
OK, don’t get me wrong here. I love Edge and I think he’s one of the best backs in the league. He’s been a keeper of mine for years, but here’s a snapshot of what he’s walking into in 2006: The Cardinals had probably the worst offensive line in the NFL last season. This team averaged a league worst 3.2 yards per carry and 71.1 total rushing yards per game. On top of that, they scored a whopping two rushing touchdowns all season. I don’t care what you want to say about Marcel Shipp and rookie J.J. Arrington, they’re not entirely to blame for those kinds of numbers. Also consider this: Edge carried the ball 360 times in 2006 - 243 of those carries came with his team ahead on the scoreboard. The Cardinals, with a defense that gave up over 24 points per game last year, tend to be playing from behind a lot. For that reason, the Cardinals led the league with over 40 pass attempts and 277 passing yards per game last year. Despite possessing the best passing offense in the league, the Cards’ drafted a quarterback in the first round and a pass-catching tight end in the third. Now they’ve got Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart at quarterback, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson at receiver and Leonard Pope at tight end. Does this really sound like a team looking to drastically alter their offensive game plan? Throw in the fact that Edgerrin just got the big payday he’s been looking for and you’ve got to question whether or not he’s going to have the same motivation he’s had in previous years. Remember that a bust isn’t determined just by the numbers a guy puts up, but also by the position in which he’s drafted. James is currently being drafted, on average, around the fifth overall spot right now. That’s awfully early to be taking risks. Let somebody else make that mistake.

Jamal Lewis, RB, BAL
It’s hard to imagine labeling Lewis as a bust in 2006 after he had such a terrible season in 2005. Lewis failed to reach 1,000 yards rushing and scored only three TD’s on the ground. However, the addition of quarterback Steve McNair and the fact the Lewis finally seems to have his legal troubles behind him apparently have many people thinking the Baltimore running back is ready to return to his old form. I don’t see it. The addition of McNair will improve the fantasy value of receivers Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton and tight end Todd Heap. I might be able to say an improved passing game would help open things up for Lewis on the ground if were not for the addition of Mike Anderson. Now Lewis will not only be competing with an improved passing game, but even when the Ravens do run the ball, he’s not necessarily going to be the guy getting the call. If nothing else, Anderson should see a significant amount of action around the goal line. Lewis has an ADP of 28 right now. That’s still too high for me.

Trent Green, QB, KC
This isn’t Dick Vermeil’s and Al Saunders’ Chiefs anymore. Herm Edwards has taken over and while that’s great news for Larry Johnson it’s not so great for Green. Edwards has already spoken of Johnson getting more than 30 carries per game and that’s got the fans in KC talking about a 2,000 yard season. That doesn’t leave a whole lot left over for the passing game. Johnson took over for the injured Priest Holmes last year and Green finished the season with 17 touchdown passes. That was his lowest TD total since 2001, his first year with the Chiefs. Green is 36 years old, his favorite target, tight end Tony Gonzalez, made 30 this year and number one wide receiver Eddie Kennison is now 33 years old. This is a passing offense on the decline. Green’s ADP is currently 78 which makes him about the 11th QB off the board. Believe it or not, there are better options available. Drew Bledsoe, for example is currently ranked fifth overall in the 4for4 quarterback rankings. His ADP is 90.

Marc Bulger, QB, STL
Like Green, Bulger will have a new head coach this season as Scott Linehan replacing Mike Martz. Martz probably places more of an emphasis on the passing game than any coach in the game. Linehan will look to get running back Steven Jackson more involved in the offense so Bulger will definitely have fewer opportunities than he has in past years. On top of that, Bulger missed half the season last year and is coming off of a pretty severe shoulder injury. That’s very bad news for a guy who didn’t exactly have a cannon for an arm to begin with. Bulger is also not a very big or mobile guy which doesn’t help with the injury concerns. It’s tough to let a young guy like this, who has put up some really great numbers in the past, slide down the draft board, but that’s exactly what you should do. Right now, with an ADP of 58, I’d say Bulger is being drafted at least a couple of rounds too early.

Javon Walker, WR, DEN
The move to Denver seems like it could be a good one for Walker and I wouldn’t necessarily mind having him on my roster in 2006, but not at his current ADP of 43. This is a guy who got to where he is by starting a feud with the front office in Green Bay, bickering with Brett Favre in the offseason and basically whining his way into a trade. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan is not one to tolerate immature players and if Walker starts any trouble in Denver he’ll be in the dog house real quick. Don’t forget the Broncos still have Rod Smith and Plummer will still be getting the ball to him in 2006. Then of course there is the concern over Walker’s injury. Walker missed basically the entire 2005 season with a torn ACL. That’s a tough injury to come back from especially for a player who relies on his speed and cutting ability so much. Walker is also a tall guy at 6’3” and he can expect to take plenty of low hits from shorter cornerbacks this season.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, KC
For years, Gonzalez was the standard for fantasy tight ends and the easy pick for first tight end off the board. Times have changed. Gonzalez caught two touchdown passes last year. Yes, you read that right – two touchdowns in 16 games. Last year, defenses started jamming Gonzalez at the line and got him off his routes. Also, as I talked about with Trent Green above, new coach Herm Edwards will place more of an emphasis on the running game and Gonzalez is not known for his blocking ability. On top of that, Gonzo will be 31 years old in February and while he hasn’t missed any playing time, he has had some nagging injuries that could begin to catch up with him. Gonzalez being drafted around the 50th pick right now. That makes him the second tight end off the board. That’s a typical mistake of drafting a player based solely on reputation. Don’t make that mistake.