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Dale Lolley from the Observer Reporter and Chris Kucharski from the Tribune Review and Fox Sports Radio jump in…
UNDERVALUED – WR Deion Branch
Comments by Dale Lolley
Looking for a bargain in this year’s draft? Look no further than New England wide receiver Deion Branch, who has an ADP of 60.
Coming off a solid 78-catch, 998-yard, five-touchdown season, Branch figures to fully blossom into a No. 1 receiver this season after David Givens signed with Tennessee and Bethel Johnson was sent packing.
Branch has been Tom Brady’s favorite target over the past couple of seasons, but because Brady likes to spread the ball around so much, that hasn’t yet added up to a 1,000-yard season for Branch – though he just missed it last season.
Without a proven No. 2 receiver, the speedy Branch will get even more looks from Brady this season. And given Brady’s uncanny accuracy, which allows him to squeeze the ball into the smallest of openings, that will add up to a season in which Branch approaches 90 receptions and easily eclipses 1,000 yards. Think Derrick Mason in his prime.
But considering Branch’s ADP is 60, that means he would be a sixth-round pick in a 10-team fantasy draft, a position way too low for a player of his talent.
Grab Branch a couple of rounds earlier than that and watch the points add up as he finally has his true breakout season. In fact, 4for4.com’s overall ranking of Branch shows he’s about the 40th best player and 15th best wide receiver in this year’s draft. That seems much more in line with his production. He’ll perform as a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver with Brady looking his way early and often.
OVERVALUED – RB Laurence Maroney
Comments by Chris Kucharski
The New England Patriots drafted Laurence Maroney in the first round with an eye toward the future. The problem for fantasy owners is the future just isn't 2006. And Corey Dillon has everything to do with it.
Dillon is the No. 1 back on the depth chart entering training camp. And although many analysts that feel Maroney could end up getting a good amount of carries, this will only happen if Dillon is not healthy.
Dillon did have injury problems in 2005 only starting 10 games. His yardage and yards per carry took a dramatic hit last season, but he still scored 12 touchdowns. The other factor with Dillon is pride. He thought the fans and media had written him off when Maroney was selected in the NFL Draft in April and feels he has something to prove. The situation is similar when Dillon left Cincinnati, where he also felt unappreciated. He will have that chip on his shoulder again.
Maroney (ADP = 69) will get playing time although it is uncertain how head coach Bill Belichick will use him. But his fantasy numbers will not be high enough to warrant him as the first or second back on your roster. He is attractive to those in keeper leagues, but as long as Dillon is healthy, Maroney will probably only play a couple series each game to give Dillon a breather and there are no specialty situations such as goal line or third-down, which will go to Dillon (24 touchdowns the last two seasons) and Kevin Faulk respectively.
UNDERVALUED – QB Mark Brunell
Comments by Tony Finn
At 36-years of age most want to frame Brunell as an aging and delusional quarterback that still believes he can single-handedly make plays with his feet and strong left arm. Conventional wisdom would validate this profile and announce the Washington signal caller nearing the end of his career.
However, conventional wisdom is overrated, and rarely rewards fantasy owners. The concept of “regression to the mean.” whereby the average of many inputs (conventional wisdom) moves—by definition—towards the normal, better describes the fantasy magazine carrying masses. Because you, the reader, are a subscriber of 4for4.com you aren’t the sheep that follow, you’re the Sheppard that leads. Sheep you see are exceedingly dumb, severely lacking in intellectual prowess, liable to follow whatever prompt they receive. The norms [sheep], the followers, are walking off the cliff; don’t follow or fall in line with those labeling Brunell over the hill.
The Redskins are loaded with offensive talent, and Brunell will have to trip over his own feet not to produce starting fantasy numbers this season. Brunell still has a strong arm, quick release, and even at his age can throw the deep out from a five-step drop, something OC Al Saunders will have in the offensive playbook.
While durability is an issue at 36-years of age, fantasy owners simply can’t ignore what weapons the Washington front office has surrounded him with. Throw in the addition of KC-import and offensive guru Saunders and the formula equates to, no, it screams fantasy success. The Redskins quarterback currently carries an ADP of 130 according to 4for4.com, and that calculation is generous compared to most of the early summer Mock drafts I’ve witnessed.
If you believe Trent Green can throw for 4000 yards in the Saunders scheme, and do it with an underachieving receiving corps, then why not imagine Brunell tossing for 3800- 4000 yards and 25 touchdowns in Washington. Worst-case scenario is that fantasy owner’s waste a late round draft pick on Brunell. The upside for those that believe is a late round quarterback that outperforms many of signal-callers taken 6-7 rounds before him.
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