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How not to manage BYE weeks when drafting!
Long before I became an NFL Analyst I obtained a Computer Science and Stats
Degree from a small school of 60,000 or so in Pennsylvania --- Penn State
University.
I always knew my Computer Science and Statistics degree would come in handy one
day – I just never knew it would be for Fantasy Football BYE Week Management.
Let’s dig in…
The truth is, drafting a Fantasy Team and trying to manage BYE weeks can
get you in trouble. Big trouble!
In short, favoring and drafting certain starters or backup players to cover BYE weeks
can really hurt your odds of winning.
Contrary to common opinion, in many situations, having 4, 5, 6 or 8 key NFL
players all on BYE in the same week actually INCREASES your odds of winning over
the season!
In other words, it’s a GOOD THING to have almost all your starters out on BYE
in one week!
I’m sure some of you are saying, “Greg you have no idea, what the heck are
you talking about! --- Everyone knows you should draft to make sure you manage
the BYE weeks properly. Leaving a big gap in say Week #5 is the sign of a
rookie.”
Before we go any further, I
need you to take a minute and form your own opinion on this…
Is it better to:
#1) “Properly” manage your BYE weeks, never have more than 1 starter out on
BYE each week
#2) Have a major gap in your starting lineup one week due to BYE
#3) None of the above, in the long run, it makes no difference
So, what’s you answer? One, two or three?
Okay, here’s the deal…
I used my old computer science degree and wrote a small but effective program to
simulate 50,000 8-week NFL seasons. In turn the computer gave me results from
50,000 virtual seasons. I will share those results here.
I used Monte Carlo (random number) Simulation to make this happen. In
other words, I let the computer simulate the results of three different drafting
techniques (Team-A, Team-B and Team-C).
Here Are The Assumptions
NOTE: The results are rigorous and should hold up across a wide range of league
rules and situations.
- A starting lineup consists of 8 players.
- Each Team Drafts 16-players (8 Starters and 8 Benchwarmers).
- All Starters average 20 points/game, with scores varying from 15 to 25 each
week.
- All Benchwarmers average 12
points/game, with scores varying from 7 to 17 each week.
- Teams always play their Starters, unless the Starter is on BYE. When the Starter
is on BYE, a Benchwarmer is inserted into the starting lineup.
TEAM-A
This team made sure they only had one player on BYE each week of the Virtual
Season. In other words each of the 8 starters went on BYE in different weeks.
So, this team never had more than one player on BYE each week. Some might say
this team managed BYE’s “properly.”
In total, this team missed 8 starters due to BYE during each virtual
season.
TEAM-B
This team had two starters on BYE for 4 weeks and no Starters on BYE the other 4
weeks. So, for 4 weeks this team was at full strength and for 4 weeks this team
had two starters on the bench. Like Team-A, Team-B missed using 8 starters due
to BYE each virtual season.
TEAM-C
This team paid no attention to BYE weeks during their draft! As it turns out,
all 8 of their Starters go on BYE the same week. In that week, the team is in
trouble. That’s the bad news. However, during the other seven weeks, this team
was at full strength. Like Team-A and Team-B, this team also missed using 8
starters due to BYE each season.
So, all the teams have identical talent – the only difference is how each team
managed to spread out BYE weeks among Starters.
To best measure which method works best, the highest scoring team that week went
2-0, the team in the middle went 1-1 and the lowest scoring team went 0-2.
So, after 50,000 seasons, which team did best?
As it turns out, Team-C is the clear winner -- it’s not even close! The
results are statistically significant.
The table below shows how many wins each team had over 50,000 8-Week seasons.
|
Wins |
| Team-C |
501,247 |
| Team-B |
361,972 |
| Team-A |
336,781 |
| Total |
1,200,000 |
The take is clear, drafting players to spread out your BYE weeks is not the way
to go! It’s much better to get your BYE weeks out of the way all in one week
and then run on all cylinders the rest of the season.
For those interested in the code…
DEFINE SIM PROGRAM
teamwins=0
_i = 0
while _i lt 50000
do
_wk=1
while _wk le 8
do
teamscore(team
'a') = random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(15 25) +
random(15 25) -
+ random(15 25) + random(15 25)
+ random(15 25) + random(7 17)
if
_wk eq 1 or _wk eq 2 or _wk eq 3 or _wk eq 4
then teamscore(team 'b') = random(15 25) + random(15 25) +
random(15 25) + random(15 25) -
+
random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(7 17) + random(7 17)
else teamscore(team 'b') = random(15 25) + random(15 25) +
random(15 25) + random(15 25) -
+
random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(15 25)
if _wk eq 1
then teamscore(team 'c') = random(7 17) + random(7
17) + random(7 17) + random(7 17) -
+
random(7 17) + random(7 17) + random(7 17) + random(7 17)
else teamscore(team 'c') = random(15 25) + random(15 25) +
random(15 25) + random(15 25) -
+
random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(15 25) + random(15 25)
sort team a teamscore
"tbl teamscore
teamwins=teamwins + statrank(team) -1
"tbl teamwins
_wk
= _wk +1
doend
_i=_i+1
doend
sort team d teamwins
tbl teamwins
END
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