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Staying on top of your fantasy league by obtaining key information in the offseason is critical. Tracking player movement and injury developments are important but what about when a team changes coaches? Coaching changes can affect a
team's offensive and defensive philosophies which directly impact your players results. This offseason saw a total of ten teams make a change at the top of their coaching staff. Let’s breakdown what to look for with these coaching changes.
Brad Childress – Head Coach – Minnesota Vikings
After three seasons of being rumored as one of the “hot” coordinators in the NFL, Brad Childress finally gets an opportunity as a head coach. Childress was a key piece for the Philadelphia Eagles during their run of NFC dominance when they reached the NFC Championship Game 4 consecutive seasons. Childress served as the offensive coordinator in each of the four seasons but he was one of the few coordinators in the NFL not calling the plays, a role filled by coach Andy Reid. Even though Reid has the final say when calling plays from the sideline the stamp of Childress could be seen on the Eagles.
Childress had numerous coaching stops before Philadelphia (Indianapolis-NFL, Northern Arizona, Illinois, Utah-NCAA) and all his positions revolved around the offense as a position coach or a coordinator. The offensive unbalance we saw from Philadelphia last year was not all of Andy Reid’s doing. Childress has always installed and excelled with pass-first offenses and was one of the early innovative minds to spread the West Coast offense from the pro to college ranks. The trademark to the Childress offense is short high percentage passes designed to draw in the opposing secondary and waiting for the right time to hit them with a deep ball. The one risk seems to be starting quarterback Brad Johnson. Johnson is now the oldest starting quarterback in the league and he isn’t known for his mobility, another trait Childress seems to like in quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see how the mobility issue will play out in Minnesota but you can see by the backups (Mike McMahan and rookie
T. Jackson) that mobility is essential to Childress.
The defense has some playmakers but they to will be under new leadership as Mike Tomlin takes over defensive coordinator duties from Ted Cottrell. Tomlin is a defensive coordinator for the first time after serving as a defensive backs coach in Tampa Bay. This should result in more interceptions for the secondary and players like Antoine Winfield could have big seasons.
Herm Edwards – Head Coach – Kansas City Chiefs
The term “players coach” seems to follow some coaches and that is the best term used to describe Herm Edwards. Edwards comes over from the New York Jets where he enjoyed some success but was criticized for not being a disciplinarian. The Chiefs worked out a deal to bring Edwards to Kansas City and Edwards knows he is in a better situation after a terrible 2005 in New York.
On offense the biggest loss for the Chiefs was offensive coordinator Al Saunders. With Herm Edwards guiding the team his M.O. in Kansas City should be the same, play to your teams
strengths. This bodes well for Larry Johnson owners. Johnson plays behind what many consider to be the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL and Johnson proved that by leading the AFC in rushing in 2005. This could prove to be a little detrimental to Tony Gonzalez owners. I expect Gonzalez to get more touchdown opportunities but his receptions will go down as Kris Wilson and Samie Parker see more balls coming their way under Edwards.
The focus will be on defense, the side of the ball Edwards is most familiar with. Kansas City has a secondary that lacks speed but has been showing more physicality in recent years, a trait that made Edwards a great cornerback. I expect the defense to be better but it is still a unit I wouldn’t recommend for your
league because of the high powered offenses in their division.
Dick Jauron – Head Coach – Buffalo Bills
This is Dick Jauron’s second time as a head coach. Jauron piloted the Chicago Bears from 1999-2003 and compiled a 35-46 record. Jauron had served as the Detroit Lions defensive coordinator for the last couple of seasons and this emphasis will help a Buffalo team that was 29th in total defense a season ago.
Six of the nine players taken by the Bills on draft day were defensive players and the three players drafted on offense all play on the offensive line. This seems to indicate that the focus will be on the defensive side of the football, and especially in the secondary where Jauron was a standout in his NFL career as a player.
While the defense is getting most of the attention it is noticeable as to how little attention the offense got during the draft. The Bills added lineman and look to be playing to the strength of their team which is running the ball with Willis McGahee. Even though McGahee ran the ball for over 1,200 yards last year the yards were harder to come by as his YPC dropped to 3.8 and his rushing touchdowns from 13 to 5. The Bills need to be a threat throwing the football or McGahee will be stopped on a consistent basis.
J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcombe bounced back and forth in the starting lineup at quarterback and now Craig Nall has been brought in to compete and make this a three person race.
Until the Bills have some stability at quarterback it doesn’t matter who the coach is because Willis McGahee and wide receiver Lee Evans will see a drop in production.
Gary Kubiak – Head Coach – Houston Texans
Gary Kubiak gets his chance after spending years on the sidelines for the Denver Broncos as a player and a coach. Kubiak may be the head coach that has the most impact on his teams offensive production for the upcoming season. David Carr should be the benefactor after he has been handcuffed because of poor offensive play design and protection over the last couple of seasons.
Kubiak spent nine years backing up John Elway as a quarterback for the Broncos and has been the offensive coordinator there for years. Kubiak comes from the school of thought where a team passes to set up the run and in Denver Kubiak always had multiple backs to choose from when it came to hurting defenses.
Kubiak stresses using multiple backs and likes backs who can catch the football out of the backfield. This is why passing on Reggie Bush in the draft was surprising to some but the Texans have a capable receiver in Domanick Davis. Davis has played for three seasons in the NFL and has already caught 154 passes for nearly 1,300 yards.
Andre Johnson is another person who should benefit from the new offense this year but his increase in production could have more to do with the signing of veteran Eric Moulds than
Coach Kubiak. Johnson finally gets a chance to play with a proven veteran who has been one of the best at his position for
years. This is a situation that Johnson has never been fortunate enough to have in Houston.
The defense switches back to a 4-3 setting from a 3-4 and the Texans have a number of impact players including 2006 top pick Mario Williams. The problem with the Texans is depth on defense and a secondary that has been decimated by injury over the last few seasons. Expect the Texans to get more pressure on the quarterback but a questionable secondary leaves this defense as one fantasy owners should avoid.
Scott Linehan – Head Coach – St. Louis Rams
Scott Linehan successfully orchestrated offensive rejuvenations for Minnesota and Miami in recent years and this earned him a head coaching job after only 4 years of NFL experience as an offensive coordinator. While Linehan has coached with teams that seem to stress the passing game more than running the football, offensive balance is important in his system and Steven Jackson could see his numbers and production take him into the NFL elite among running backs. Jackson has the offensive versatility Linehan is looking for and his backup, Marshall Faulk, should also see more chances. Linehan is on record saying he would like Faulk to get “12 touches a game” on the football.
While running the football is a priority in St. Louis the Rams have an emerging star in receiver Kevin Curtis and Torry Holt may be the best receiver in the conference. This means quarterback Marc Bulger has plenty of targets to throw to and if he goes down to injury Linehan can turn the ball over to Gus Frerotte, a player who played under Linehan in Minnesota and Miami.
Former NFL coach Jim Haslett gets a chance to try and improve the defense. The Rams were dead last in interceptions last season and a big part of this was due to a lack of pressure from the defensive line. The Rams linebackers were also second in the NFC to Philadelphia in terms of missed tackles. Haslett was a linebacker himself for eight seasons with the Buffalo Bills where he was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1979 and a Pro Bowler in 1981. Expect the play of the linebackers in St. Louis to improve dramatically. While the defense should see improved results the Rams have a lot of teams on their schedule that had terrific offenses a season ago and four games against Seattle and Arizona won’t help.
Eric Mangini – Head Coach – New York Jets
Of the ten head coaches in new positions in 2006, Mangini is probably the one that people and fantasy players know the least about. At only 35 years of age, Mangini is the youngest coach in the NFL and he gets the difficult task of coaching in New York right out of the box. What will help Mangini is the number of coaches on the staff around him with a number of years experience. Brian Schottenheimer is the new offensive coordinator and he has extensive experience working with quarterbacks, a position that holds the most question marks for the Jets on offense coming into the season. Bob Sutton moves up to defensive coordinator after leading one of the best young linebacking corps in the NFL over the last few years. Mangini also has a defensive background, serving as the New England Patriots defensive coordinator in 2005. Mangini was a part of all three New England Super Bowl winning teams so success is no stranger.
It’s hard to get a gage on just how the Jets will do in 2006 and how the coaching staff will impact the production of the teams important fantasy players. Many Laveranues Coles owners are hoping for a turn around and Curtis Martin may be finally showing signs of slowing up after failing to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time in his NFL career. The retirement of Wayne
Chrebet also means added responsibility for Justin McCareins. I advise all owners of New York Jets players to be wary of the situation surrounding the team.
If Chad Pennington can stay healthy they may have a shot at making some noise, they were very close to the AFC Championship Game in 2004 and the defense is one of the fastest in the league.
Ron Marinelli – Head Coach – Detroit Lions
Marinelli gets his first coaching gig after staying on staff with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 10
seasons. Most of them were spent coaching the defensive line. Marinelli comes to the Lions as a sort of obscure hiring and is really second-fiddle in the minds of many outsiders looking at the coaching staff and the interesting changes that have taken place.
The hiring of Marinelli is overshadowed by the Lions bringing in former St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz to take over as the offensive coordinator. Many (especially myself) have been critical of Martz since he took over the Rams after the departure of Dick Vermeil. Although his effectiveness as a coach can be
debated, there is little debate as to how important Martz was as the teams offensive coordinator, including the year they won the Super Bowl.
The defense is already undergoing a face lift and speed is being emphasized now more than ever before.
On offense the arrival of Martz could be bad news for the owners of Kevin Jones. Martz has long been accused on ignoring the running game and passing entirely too often. Speaking of passing, the passing game is not yet set in stone yet as Jon Kitna seems to have the inside track at quarterback but things are far from settled. I expect many receivers to see their numbers go up but I don’t see a dominant force unless Roy Williams can avoid injury.
Mike McCarthy – Head Coach – Green Bay Packers
McCarthy has experience as an offensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco
49ers. McCarthy has been a quarterback's coach with the Packers and the Chiefs
so explosive offenses aren’t new to him. What McCarthy will face is an offense depleted of superstars and many of the long time starters are coming off of injury.
If surrounding Brett Favre with a system that will allow him to succeed with the weapons he has at his disposal is key, than maybe he will play another couple of seasons.
It’s hard to predict what is coming for the Packers because players like Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are coming off of serious injuries and the
team is without wide receiver Javon Walker.
Brett Favre will find a way to throw for a ton of yards, so I expect a big season from Donald Driver. Robert Ferguson may be the player who benefits most from the offensive situation in Green Bay but the running backs have to stay healthy.
Sean Payton – Head Coach – New Orleans Saints
Sean Payton has been a hot name in the coaching ranks for years and in New Orleans, he goes to a team that has a lot of talented pieces on offense. Sean Payton was an offensive coordinator with the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys before landing his job in New Orleans.
Before that he was a QB-coach for the Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Payton is an offensive minded guy and the Saints have plenty of building blocks for him.
It starts with quarterback Drew Brees. Brees was a huge acquisition from the San Diego Chargers and with receivers like Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth he has reliable targets.
With the #2 overall draft pick, the Saints selected Reggie Bush, possibly the most anticipated offensive draft pick this decade.
Bush promises to be a threat both running and catching the football. Fantasy football owners should feel good about drafting offensive players from New Orleans, there will be plenty of chances for yards and touchdowns.
The defense is another story. The Saints have a formidable pass rush with Charles Grant and Will Smith but beyond that the play is suspect. It is conceivable that both players could reach double digits in sack totals with some help around them but as a unit I would avoid the Saints at all costs. This could be a situation like we’ve seen in years past in New Orleans. They are a team that seems to play catchup late in games and get big chunks of yards and “garbage touchdowns” when the game is out of reach.
Art Shell – Head Coach – Oakland Raiders
Not only is this the second time Art Shell has been a head coach, it’s his second time with the Raiders. Shell broke down barriers as the first African-American coach in the modern era and now he gets a second chance after having some success in his first tenure.
Shell is a no-nonsense coach who walks a fine line between being a disciplinarian and a
player's coach. He sets the bar high for his players but seems to always get results and players love to play for him.
The quarterback situation is a little unsettled with Aaron Brooks facing a ton of criticism in New Orleans. Brooks has a lot of natural talent but if the
Raiders struggle look for Andrew Walter to get some snaps.
The player to watch in Oakland will be LaMont Jordan and it shouldn’t be a surprise.
Since Shell was an All-Pro lineman as a player, he knows what a strong running game can do for a football team.
I expect a Raider to rise from obscurity on offense. He's a TE who has flashed some potential
and his name is Courtney Anderson.
The Raiders get to do this under new offensive coordinator Tom Walsh, who like Art Shell, in in his second stint with the Raiders. Walsh served as the offensive coordinator under Shell previously so the Raiders have some proven chemistry on the sidelines.
Shell knows the Raiders have to improve on defense to be competitive in the AFC West. If you are playing in an IDP league and tackles give you a lot of points then players like rookie Michael Huff and second year linebacker Kirk Morrison could be huge additions to your team. Derrick Burgess had 16 sacks for the
Raiders last year and that was tops in the NFL. This is the third year Rob Ryan has been the defensive coordinator and
if his secondary can play consistently this unit could be a pleasant surprise. For the record, Ryan's dad is long time NFL defensive
guru Buddy Ryan.
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