Wearing a big hat and no cattle
July 13, 2006
There's been some discussion today at the Hot Stove regarding the news of a back up UM linebacker, a controversial and formerly highly recruited prep stud, seeking to transfer, ostensibly because he wants a better opportunity to start, and it brings up certain issues in my mind.
That a guy wanting a shot at playing time somewhere else is not what's provoking to our gang; of course this happens a lot, and even for the reasons that are brought forth publicly. No, what's noteworthy of blog-discussion is the idea of unmet expectations, and to what degree outside factors can be blamed. The potential is what is intoxicating for us, and why we care about a coach, a player, or a fantasy performer.
I am weary of waiting for Ravens' head coach Brian Billick to re-create the high-powered Vikings offense in Baltimore, the apparent reason he was given his shot there, apart from the fact that he's extremely bright. Yes, he's won a title, but producing relevant fantasy performers, apart from the workhorse RB Jamal Lewis, have been few and far between ever since his arrival, riding high in the saddle.
But it's high time we see some QSV. Is bringing in the Titans' very successful circa-2003 offensive playmakers really the only play left for coach Billick to convince us that he's the offensive genius we thought he was? For those old enough to remember, OC Billick ran a prolific Vikings offense for four years, culminating in 1998 by scoring the most points in NFL history, while doing it with re-tread quarterbacks. I know it’s a blue-collar town and all, but hanging your hat on a "tough defense, a punishing ground game and great special teams" style is so old-school --read Don Shula, 70s 'Fins, for those of you even older to remember-- and that doesn't cut it for me, the hip, MySpace fantasy guy. I hear Eddie George is still available….
I am weary running backs Julius Jones and Chris Brown, still-young guys on clubs that are just dying for both to seize the moment and become stud hosses. Worse, in my mind, is that they play for coaches and have the benefit of systems that create stud fantasy backs in their sleep, yet both are eerily similar in the way they are unable to lead their herd; struggling to learn the hot read as rookies, having fumbling issues, and demonstrating a lack of durability.
Maybe it's my own fault --I drafted Brown as a sleeper keeper -- but if ranch barons Parcells and Fisher can place their faith in them, why can't I? The rub, it appears, is that Jones, a second-round pick, and Brown, a third rounder, went in rounds that say to me that they have ability, but each are missing something in their packages. We now see Jones facing the prospect of competing for PT with an '05 fourth-round throwaway back, and Brown's team drafting a bruiser in the '06 second round, likely to fill in the gap that Brown has in his package. Their clubs are not waiting around for them, and, frankly, nor should we.
Lastly, I am weary of thinking about whether this is the year quarterback Michael Vick puts it all together, and becomes a fantasy stallion. I spend too much time in July, looking up what his club has done for him to get better. Most galling, in my view, is that in '04 the club installed a West Coast system that would "better utilize his unique skills", excused him in '05 for "still learning the nuances" of the WCO, and now is saying, heck, maybe we should just let him run it after his first check-down craps out, like he's been doing all his life. And, maybe, to themselves, why don't we spend a little more time now with that Schaub kid? You know, the guy we wouldn't trade for a high pick, and has that high 7's Y/PATT. Who would you rather have riding shotgun beside you?
Forward to me your big-cowboy-hat fantasy guys, and why.
Lingering Thought:
I've just about had my fill of the diva-soccer culture, and its going to take a lot of convincing to get me to think that the game, in its present form, will ever appeal to us dumb American cowboys. I resorted to Media Center-taping of the final game, and I was struck by the number of times some guy fell down writhing in pain, while whipping through the video in order to catch the one or two goals that are scored.
Soccer is to football as "Brokeback Mountain" is to the Marlboro Man. And what's with that Zidane wuss over-reacting to some mean words from an opponent like some French Zorro, "defending the honor of his mother"? We then get a "he said, she said" post-game re-counting. Please, go away, World Cup soccer. Just go away.
We clean out the in-box:
personname = Bill
comments = Joe, I think you hit on a great point, to identify the three down
starting backs in the league. I'm aware of most, such as Lamont Jordan,
Steven Jackson, L.T., to name a few. I want guys that dont come out on third
down. Just wondering if you had a more comprehensive list. Can't forget
Brian Westbrook.
Joe:
Thanks, Wild Bill Hickock. You have just identified what I categorize as the "#1 fantasy back" group. For your list, well, email me again once the paying customers come into the saloon. You can try this at home, though. It's safe to do so. Look for the 20-25 carry guy. The ones who average 4.5-5.0 per tote, you have your #1's. Draft as many as you can. Then, the ones who catch 3-5 times, the #1As. Beg, borrow or steal for these.
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personname = Ben
comments = Joe, I am the 9th pick out of 10 in this years draft. Running backs usually are taken with the first 8. Assuming this happens do I take Payton Manning? Keep in mind my 2nd pick will come 3 picks later and then I won't pick again for 17 selections. My initial thoughts say that I can't pass up on Manning, but in terms of value I wonder if I could get a comparable quarterback later on and take 2 mid tier running backs with 9 and 12th picks? Thanks
Joe:
You're a smart guy. It's impressive that you could explain this dilemma in such a coherent way. Just like the patriarch Ben in the old Bonanza westerns. The problem you have here is that you have a crappy draft position, and there's no way around it. Don't compound it by drafting yourself out of a solid #2 back, which will be impossible to find by your third pick. There's an expression that's apt for you, in your position; let the draft come to you. Make up for the bad draft slot in rounds 3-5, when you choose those WRs and QB that will perform like those players drafted at a much higher cost. Or, play with our 4for4 Draft Simulator, it's really interesting to use.
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personname = foursixzero
comments = I'm in a keeper league in which I probably will be keeping
Westbrook, Brady, and Ronnie Brown. Looking at the suggestion for
selecting players based on bye week (having the most starters on a bye
week all at once), which bye week of teams would be the best to select the
rest of my team, keeping in mind the already listed keepers. I'm in a 10
team league with the starting squad being 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 flex RB/WR, a TE,
a kicker and a defense with 8 bench positions. Thanks
Joe:
First, check out: http://www.4for4.com/pre06/notesf06/byemgmt.php
Another smart guy. Mr. 460 [that was actually my 40-time in school], you have touched on an issue that one can draft for, depending on your philosophy. I, myself, don't like to give away anything. I worry about bye weeks so that I can avoid that week-8 when I realize I don't have a starting RB, or when I have my hammers out in week-11 when I really need a win to clinch a playoff spot.
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personname = The Irish
comments = Hello Joe,
Last year, like so many others I missed the play offs by 1 total point. I
was in a three way tie for record & division record. My first pick at number
three spot was Priest, my second pick was J. Lewis ( WHAT A WASTE) third was
Mr. Walker from GB, fourth was Mr Claton from the Bucs and I got a ripping
for taking Larry Johnson in the fifth! I have been in this league for 7
years, so I do not have that much back ground. My question is if you feel a
better vibe for someone lower in the RB in the first round would you take
the next best RB or drop 3-6 lower to grab the fellow you feel is worth the
pick? (A RB that you feel will out perform the ones listed a head of him)? I
am enjoying your site and I am a new member of 4for4. With some good advice
and a few tips I am hoping that I can succeed this year.
Thank you for your time
Best regards
The Irish
Joe:
I'm not familiar with how the Irish "rip" their rivals. Upon further review, I don't think I want to know. Anyway, great question. This is called "reaching", a calculated risk. There are many instances in a draft where there is little differentiation from the guys you rank 10-15, or 30-35. Rankings can be pretty subjective, and some lists do not take into account specific scoring rules for your league. Don't beat yourself up over last year; Walker got hurt, which was a surprise, and Clayton just tanked, which I think even the Bucs coaches were surprised with. After seven years, McLucky Man, you should know your league. Go with the gut feeling, although the top 8 guys are pretty set, so don't reach out of that group.
Whew. You guys made me think this week. Nice going.
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