So you want sleepers, right? The Coaches Primer
June 12, 2006
In an earlier era, several NFL head coaches known for certain philosophies changed their schemes if certain offensive skill players became available, usually in the draft and particularly at the QB spot. Shula/Marino, then Levy/Kelly and then Parcells/Bledsoe. For those of you familiar with what happened next in these cases, suffice it to say that, as a fantasy player, you wanted to be in front of these pivotal events. Success was immediate. Potent offenses were born literally overnight.
Concurrently, the "system" guru came into prominence, most notably Bill Walsh and his version of the West Coast Offense. Again, the team's success was immediate once the offense was installed. What was unique in Walsh's case was that his team took off once he installed a QB, Joe Montana, who wasn't drafted in the "franchise QB" slot [i.e. high first round], but "fit" the system Walsh was deploying.
Growing up during this time and having played in a more traditional style, that of a power back, conservative style in my youth, I was intrigued with what was happening, particularly at the RB position. I had played on both sides of the ball, RB and linebacker, which I'm told is not unusual, and was acutely aware of running styles.
Walsh's WCO "system" backs, most prominently Roger Craig then Ricky Watters, and to a lesser extent the serviceables Garrison Hearst and Charlie Garner, would actually lead their teams in receptions as well as being the primary ball carrier, albeit with 10-15 carries rather than the glorified 25-30-carry "stud hoss" the TV announcers would gush over.
Around this time, the fantasy football movement rose up, and I was asked to join a league. I realized very quickly that while Troy Aikman, the handsome, successful QB of America's Team, was winning championships [as a guy, who didn't want to be Troy Aikman for one day?], he was a dog as a fantasy QB, due to OC Norv Turner's "system". What empowerment! You could dis' the guy, and smirk at the guy who drafted him onto his fantasy roster.
Fantasy football is less about the stars. My heroes were the Chris Warrens of SEA, Jimmy Smiths of JAX… absolute money. I found myself givng a &^%$ about the late games because of players like them, and I'm sure the NFL didn't mind that, did they?
Watching RB Marshall Faulk, a smallish, small-college guy picked in the second round, rise quickly to stud fantasy status got me scrambling to understand why. I found out that another "guru", old war horse Ted Marchibroda, was known for using his backs in similar fashion over the years -- Lydell Mitchell, Wilbert Montgomery, and to my surprise, Thurman Thomas, whom of Levy's K-Gun attack with Jim Kelly…..and Marchibroda specifically drafted Faulk after he had seen enough of Roosevelt Potts…..
For those of you old enough to have experienced this: you know when you finally see that girl, and she looks at you, and you just know that's it, its over? To my "close personal friends" in cyber world, I'll admit that I got the same feeling once I read this stuff. I was hooked.
While watching the Lion's #1 WR Herman Moore light up the NFL in the mid-90s [I knew him as "H. Moore" only, from the Monday morning box scores] with a #2 WR Brett Perriman actually a core fantasy starter from the same team [at least I knew him as he was a former 'Cane], I knew that someone smart had to be behind this passing "system": OC Tom Moore, who moved on to IND a few years later to lead an attack that remains fantasy heaven. Hmm…. does "T" Moore have any assistants I should be aware of?
A few years ago, not coincidently after a relatively unknown QB coach, Mike Martz, left an apprenticeship with Norv Turner's timing/multiple in WAS to unleash his version in STL to unbelievable fantasy levels, the Hot Stove has tracked these coaching movements, with the sole purpose of predicting fantasy breakouts, what you guys refer to as "sleepers".
When a Martz brings in a Marshall Faulk specifically to jump start his scheme [a RB, not a QB], as he did in '99 which made even his #3 WR fantasy relevant, not to mention his journeyman-level QB, take note. If you know mentor Norv Turner's scheme, as a fantasy owner you historically want his RB, not his QB, at all costs, since he prefers power backs and rides them hard. And take note if he specifically brings in a stretch WR-type guy, because he'll use him because of his attack formula. We have just defined your prototypical E-factor #3 WR match up guy, folks.
Would you believe that Tom Moore was part of the IND management that actually traded away Faulk in '99? They drafted the Edge [another Cane], and used the trade for D help in the draft. Moore did it his way.
Years ago, it used to be the players. In this era of specialization, salary cap dynamics, parity, RBBCs, impatient owners, and proven over night success stories, more and more it’s the offensive-oriented coaches whom the fantasy player must track first -- if you're really into it -- to take on your world. Or, at least, subscribe to those that will.
The franchise altering events are with the OC changes.
Seventeen of thirty-two NFL teams changed their OCs following the '05 season, likely a record number. Owners have taken note of teams that have made big improvements in scoring from '04 to '05 [NYG, ARZ, MIA, JAC and WAS -- yes, we track this], and they want their's. Its like one big poker game, the cards are shuffled, and everyone has a new hand for '06. The Hot Stove will look at a couple of the more intriguing situations in the weeks ahead.
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