May 19, 2006
Your responses continue to be interesting. The RBBC piece will follow shortly, and I plan to respond to some questions from you as well. Also, we are saving all responses, so we're not ignoring your's; they're giving us ideas which we can address as the hot summer rolls on.
Before we go on, I thought it might be beneficial to release my first of several primer pieces, this one on E-factor. It is a fundamental building block for fantasy football, and I'll be referring to this piece often in my blog responses, so let's get it on…..
It’s All About Explosiveness.
"You can't just sit in a meeting room and have a coach come to you. So much of the game is hidden, you've got to scratch and dig to find it".
Trace Armstrong, veteran sage NFL lineman
The beauty of fantasy football is its sweet reward for the rare and often unexpected big play. If you are in a league that does not value this explosiveness in its scoring, find yourself another league. It is this aspect of our beloved game of fantasy football that directly mirrors the reality of the NFL game…True success in fantasy football can be found in recognizing and owning explosiveness in your roster.
It is the ability to predict explosiveness (E-factor) and to exploit this advantage on a weekly starting basis that sets you apart from the rest. Over the next few months, the Hot Stove gang will challenge you to look at your keeper league and fantasy draft in a different manner than you might not have done in the past. Our ultimate goal, though, is to give you confidence in making those weekly starting decisions which will take the week even if your opponent had LT or Peyton…the essence of this compelling passion we call fantasy football.
For you, loyal 4for4 subscribers, we at the Hot Stove will scratch and dig to find clues to allow you to identify E-factor. NFL personnel gurus search far and wide for it, NFL GMs stake their reputations on it, and NFL coaches devise schemes to exploit it. We will lay out the pieces for you, and put the pieces together to solve the hidden puzzle that Mr. Armstrong alluded to above.
You will not find this kind of content anywhere else but here.
So, when you are ready after a long day, spark up another cold one, sit back, and ease into the E-factor world…..Enjoy the ride.
E-Factor Defined
1. The Passing Game:
NFL offensive coordinators will often claim that their gameplans are devised to produce 3 to 4 game-breaking plays, depending on field position and time of game. These are not to be confused with basic 3-yd TD plunges…or 11-yd out patterns for first downs. OCs will often wait, and set up the big play…barring the missed-tackle variety, rushing plays of +20-yds, and passing plays of +20- and +40-yds are no accidents. They are singularly regarded as the pivotal event to the outcome of games by head coaches, and create immense excitement and event immediacy for the fans.
It should come as no surprise then, that NFL policy makers set upon a goal prior to their 2004 season to build in more big plays to enhance the viewing experience of the younger fan.
The NFL wants more drama. NFL teams like DET and ATL have spent the last two and even three consecutive drafts selecting WRs in the 1st round. Follow the trend. The game-breakers are the WRs now.
2. TD Scoring:
As elusive as pinpointing the big play is, identifying the fantasy TD scorer can feel like a lottery at times. Apart from staying away from injuries and underperformance of core #1s, to consistently have TD scorers in your weekly fantasy starters is likely the key reason that keeps you in the upper half of your league.
3. Yards Per Pass Attempt:
Considered by several stat gurus as the best predictor for NFL team success, the team passing yards per pass attempt ratio [the higher the better], is tracked closely by those HCs statistically inclined, or should we say, by those enlightened.
Stat gurus may extoll the virtues of the coefficent of variation, or a regression analysis to explain the proven relationship between winning and a high YD/PAT ratio….we at the Hot Stove will tell you this: better offensive production on 1st down and 2nd down occurs with play-action passes, and these pass attempts are designed for bigger plays, and OCs like their chances to complete them, especially those OCs with stud RBs to keep D's honest. QBs forced consistently into 3rd down pass attempts into cover two schemes will not fare well. Winning teams max out E-factor in the former rather than the latter. The YD/PAT ratio is the scorecard.
So, let's look at the league performance:
2003 NFL Season
2004 NFL Season
Pass Yds
109,053
114,999
Pass Attempts
16,443
16,303
YD/PAT
6.63
7.05
Trust us when we say that the increase in league-wide YD/PAT is statistically significant. Strange but true: In the 2004 season where league policies freed up WRs and TEs, there were actually less passes attempted. But, QBs did better in passing yards, with less throws. If you look at the break out QBs, whom we often cliché as a fantasy "sleeper", its those QBs who max the YD/PAT grade. Keep them in your back pocket, and draft more #2WRs while your opponents draft the mediocre #2QBs.
E-Factor remains king in the NFL, and its in the passing game.
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