FROM JOE
5/14/2006
Happy Mother's Day to all, or at least, kindly convey same to yours' from the Hot Stove. This actually brings up something I've wondered about: How many women are into fantasy
football?
If my experience at the inaugural WCOFF tourney is any indication, its more than men think. At my table of twelve teams, there were four women; one with a Steelers hat [which pretty much explained her deal], two with laptops, and one that giggled a lot [which I thought explained her deal, until she selected an unknown backup RB in round 6, whom I was hoping would stay under the radar for me to snag, two picks before me. Absolutely floored me], kind of like what you might find at the Hot Stove…
This gig has proven to be quite interesting right from the start. To summarize the inquiries/responses so far, they primarily involve changes to existing situations, and how might they impact fantasy projections. [One question I'll leave to answer last]. Not bad, guys.
I've always looked at coaching changes, particularly offensive coordinators, to begin. The backgrounds of these men often suggest underlying philosophies of attack -- systems -- likely to be implemented. If you're lucky, they'll reveal something in interviews. Most of the time, they'll drop into
coach-speak and talk about staying balanced, stretching the field, etc. The most exciting coaching change, in my view, is Martz to DET [presumably installing his 'dome-ball, a timing/multiple scheme], to answer one [excellent] question.
The coaching changes all occur in Jan-Feb, as the new regimes need the free-agency and draft to acquire the attack attributes -- the skill players -- they wish to deploy for their system, if they don't have them already. Based on my research, there appears to be 3-5 different approaches across the NFL; each having different requirements for its skill players. Thus, the impact of prominent players moving to new teams, the subject of several questions, must first be evaluated in terms of system fit.
To give you authoritative responses to your inquiries on the impact of Edge, Culpepper, Brees, the Bus, and J. Smith [you think the Jags, having drafted two WRs high in the last drafts, might have suspected something?] moves right now is silly. Its just too early to tell. There are internal issues that we as observers have no clue about.
One question though, "Addai or Rhodes in 2006? Get this right and I’m sold"…now this one I love. I want the 'tude, the implied challenge to my cred'. Bring it on! I don't think the coaches know what they have right now, let alone me. The fact that IND apparently didn't want to invest the cap space on the RB slot, and ARZ now does should speak volumes. Rookie backs, particularly in certain systems, will struggle to get on the field. You think QB Manning is thrilled with the idea of a rookie back figuring out the hot read on third down? He wanted WR Wayne back, so this is what he gets. To expect a solid #1 back out of the IND backfield this year is remote. Which one of the two? At this point, I would not draft an IND back as a #1 going into the season, if that helps you, "Edge Replacement" reader. Don't reach for either. Expect #2 production out of the serviceable Rhodes, and tuck away Addai [on your taxi squad or in your mind] for delayed gratification. No scatback here, Addai was OC Moore's consolation pick, and based on reports from sources far more connected than me, appears to be groomable. The upside in him and the system he's in means you should probably [fantasy] draft into this mess; don't wait for the waiver frenzy when Rhodes has his inevitable ding. You'll be giving up a decent #2WR slot for Addai [in a decent league, that is]. Your decision, not mine.
Which brings me to my first "put it out there" segment, something I want to do a lot. The apparent emergence of running-back-by-committee [RBBC] situations, particularly in historically fantasy-rich backfields of DEN, IND and MIA, saddens me. Fantasy-wise, which RB emerges depends on the matchup, and then the game situation, things one cannot comfortably hang their hat on when choosing their starts. Most of the top rookie RBs in the last few years have been drafted into these RBBCs. Is this the league-wide trend? As compared, to say, five years ago? Ten? The NFL GMs justifying these picks certainly say so. What do you think? How might this affect your draft? With the help of the 4for4.com "Stat Analyzer", we'll give you the stat trend.
And remember, women drink for free on Thursday nights at the Hot Stove.
Some of your responses to Joe's "Apreciation"
personname = El Queso Grande
comments = Good to have you on board, Joe! Greg's approach to fantasy football has
helped to make me a year-in-year-out winner in my FF leagues. Great stuff.
How much of a dropoff (if any) do you think Gates will have now that he has Rivers pitching him the ball?
personname = Righetti
comments = I remember the Oilers offense. What offense will be most like them in 2006? Also, what do you
think about the Jaguars Matt Jones now that Jimmy Smith is retired?
personname = The Vader
comments = Welcome Joe, great going. How about giving us some unseen advantages when drafting.
personname = Mike T.
comments = Hey Joe, what coaching change is going to make the biggest difference this year? Thanks in advance.
personname = REZ
comments = Joe when should you favor using a defense against an opponent’s QB, RB or WR?
I’m interested in what you can offer here.
personname= Casserly Killer
comments = Did Charley Casserly get kicked out because he passed on Reggie Bush and went with
Mario Williams? Is Bush really going to be that good? Fodder.
personname= Edge Replacement
comments = Addai or Rhodes in 2006? Get this right and I’m sold.
personname = Jim
comments = Hey Joe, I'm in a dynasty league and I have the luxury of drafting first this year. Our league is set
up like the pro's, so I draft 1, 11, 21...etc, instead of serpentine. My question is I need an RB as I only have
Julius Jones and Cadillac Williams. Available are Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Willie Parker, Tiki Barber and of course
the rookies (Mr. Bush). Whom would you grab? I agree with you, grabbing 1st rate receivers are a must I
have R. Moss, L Fitzgerald, Lee Evans.
personname = Ray
comments = Will Culpepper come back this year? How many passing TDs are you thinking?
personname = RB Lover
comments = Joe, congrats and thank you for your time. With the exit of the "Bus", what's your opinion
on the running game in Pit? Does Willie Parker favor greatly here?
Appreciation
May 11, 2006
Fifteen years ago, we started out as two guys watching three NFL games simultaneously, transplanted Easterners in a rough-and-tumble Tobacco Road sports bar -- actually, it was a strip-mall Cheer's knockoff, but things get embellished in the re-telling -- both thinking that their way was the best.
We didn't know it at the time, but each guy represented the extremes of the philosophical spectrum of fantasy football -- stats vs. instincts. Rivals were made, and over the years, the inevitable disputes often raged.
It was in the second season when I began to develop a greater appreciation for the stats-centric approach to fantasy football. Sitting there watching the late games, it became very clear to me that my [then] old-school ways -- I had played college ball as a linebacker, albeit undersized -- needed changing, fast. The run-and-shoot Oilers were going up and down the field, and nobody could stop them, at least until their O-line was finally asked to drive block, like real men, in the red zone, and couldn't do so. Worst of all, my rival had four of the five skill guys on the Oilers, and their kicker to boot [couldn't resist], as his fantasy starters. I was helpless.
I vowed to better understand the ways of the fantasy stats world -- I would not become another Buddy Ryan, punching my OC and despising the "chuck and duck" -- Yes, Gilbride's system proved it could not win in the NFL playoffs, but who cares? My fantasy season was over by then. My rudimentary research found that the same system was being implemented by Mouse Davis in Detroit and June Jones in Atlanta. If the system could make [fantasy] winners out of Scott Mitchell and Jeff George, I'm there.
I've come to appreciate the counter-puncher RBs, and weaned myself off of power rushers. As my rival has taught me, you can then hoard the diva #1 WRs while your opponents are drafting plodding #2 backs, and catch the explosive "delta" of fantasy points -- what I call E-Factor -- oh so necessary to win out in the playoffs.
But, lastly, I appreciate the offer of my rival, your Greg Alan, to allow me the privilege of imparting my take on the fantasy landscape to you, the 4for4 community. There's always another stool open for you at the Hot Stove. The only ground rules we have are these: No rants. No cliches. No questions like "Which two do I start among Tiki, LJ, LT or Edge?" [For the record, my response is: Get yourself into a real league, or why haven't you traded for a WR yet, you fool?] And, no nursing one beer through three ball games. As a blog is intended to do, let's see where this goes. Hopefully, it will evolve.
Let's think outside the box, shall we?
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