4for4.com - Fantasy Football

Table I -
2006 Strength of Schedule
(ranking on change from 2005 to 2006)

Rank (schedule going easier to harder)	Team	%Change from 2005 to 2006	2006 Opponents Prior to Season	2005 Opponents Prior to Season	2004 Opponents Prior to Season	2003 Opponents Prior to Season
1	MIA	-0.078	0.469	0.547	0.531	0.516
2	NYJ	-0.07	0.465	0.535	0.512	0.541
3	NE	-0.066	0.473	0.539	0.512	0.527
4	SD	-0.055	0.488	0.543	0.506	0.486
5	BUF	-0.054	0.477	0.531	0.512	0.504
6	GB	-0.047	0.449	0.496	0.508	0.449
7	CHI	-0.035	0.445	0.48	0.496	0.48
8	MIN	-0.023	0.457	0.48	0.496	0.478
9	IND	-0.02	0.484	0.504	0.508	0.518
10	JAX	-0.016	0.488	0.504	0.516	0.537
11	DET	-0.015	0.473	0.488	0.492	0.473
12	CLE	-0.015	0.512	0.527	0.488	0.48
13	OAK	-0.011	0.516	0.527	0.512	0.482
14	KC	-0.008	0.527	0.535	0.488	0.475
15	BAL	-0.008	0.523	0.531	0.508	0.48
16	DEN	-0.007	0.516	0.523	0.49	0.494
17	SEA	0.0	0.457	0.457	0.516	0.443
18	SF	0.006	0.477	0.471	0.512	0.451
19	ATL	0.008	0.508	0.5	0.488	0.523
20	CAR	0.012	0.504	0.492	0.492	0.524
21	HOU	0.019	0.523	0.504	0.51	0.533
22	CIN	0.02	0.543	0.523	0.508	0.508
23	PIT	0.023	0.531	0.508	0.476	0.473
24	DAL	0.027	0.504	0.477	0.469	0.541
25	TEN	0.035	0.527	0.492	0.486	0.524
26	NO	0.047	0.539	0.492	0.504	0.52
27	TB	0.047	0.539	0.492	0.484	0.539
28	WAS	0.051	0.516	0.465	0.492	0.537
29	ARI	0.051	0.5	0.449	0.523	0.443
30	NYG	0.055	0.543	0.488	0.48	0.522
31	STL	0.063	0.508	0.445	0.512	0.457
32	PHI	0.067	0.52	0.453	0.472	0.541

A few thing to keep in mind as you examine Table I…

* If you liked the Dolphins offense last year, you'll enjoy the 2006 season. Miami looks to benefit from their 2006 schedule as long as they keep their offensive momentum going and they stay healthy. Ronnie Brown will face plenty of teams that can’t stop the run. Compared to their opponents in 2005, Miami has a much easier schedule this year. Also keep in mind the Dolphins ended the 2005 season winning their last six games in a row. It’s hard not to be impressed with what the Dolphins new coach Nick Saban has done in just one year.

* The Packers offense might do better than some might think. The schedule makers certainly did their part. Green Bay’s schedule looks much easier in 2006 than it was last year (44% vs. 50%). In fact, outside of week’s 1 and 17 (against the Bears), the Packers have plenty of good matchups. Coming down the stretch in your fantasy season Green Bay faces the Lions, Jets and 49ers!

* In part, as a result of winning the Super Bowl last year, the Steelers will face their toughest schedule in four years. Prior to 2005, the Steelers always seemed to enjoy a major scheduling advantage. Not this year. Week 15 is always a critical week for fantasy managers and that week the Steelers face Carolina. And in week 16 they play the Ravens. Both the Ravens and Panthers look to have above average defenses in 2006. If you have Steeler players and they are doing well, the time to trade them is after week-11. From that point on, their defensive schedule gets harder.

* Due to a very disappointing performance in 2005, the Bills have an easier schedule in 2006. Willis McGahee and Company will battle foes with a 47% win rate. Last year, entering the season, Buffalo faced teams with a 53% win rate. In week 16, with many FF Super Bowls hanging in the balance, McGahee and Lee Evans face the Titans.

* In a case of the rich getting richer, things look very promising for Colts offense. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison will work their magic against the easiest schedule they have seen in four years! In week 16 the Colts face their easiest defensive foe all year - the Texans. It doesn’t get much easier than that and it hardly seems fair. I’ll have more on Peyton Manning later in the article. You won’t want to miss it.

* The Patriots have no excuses. They have a much easier schedule in 2006. In fact, they have the 3rd most favorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. Outside of week’s 9 and 12, good matchups will be had as New England faces the Bills, Jets, Packers, Lions, Titans and Texans in 2006. That should spell big fantasy points for Tom Brady and the New England ground game.

* Despite a losing season in 2005, the Eagles schedule actually gets much harder in 2006. Thanks to the competitive NFC-East, Philly has the most unfavorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. At the start of last season the guys from South Philly faced teams with a combined winning record for 45%. This year it’s up to 52%. The Giants are in the same boat – the Blue team from New Jersey plays their hardest schedule in four years.

* The Chargers should be able to pile on fantasy points the first two weeks facing the Titans and Raiders. In addition, a few weeks later they get the porous 49ers and then the Rams! If you own Phillip Rivers and he’s really kicking it after week nine, consider trading him and demand plenty in return. You might be able to pull a classic sell-high move.

* On the flip side, look at those Titans. They just can’t catch a break. Their schedule actually gets harder in 2006. Over a three-week period they face Indy, Washington and Dallas. 4for4.com has all three of those team defenses ranked in the top-8 this season. Adding insult to injury, the Titans also face the always-rugged Ravens a few weeks later.

* The Cleveland Browns have plenty of reason to gripe about their luck! If losing Kellen Winslow to injury in 2004 and 2005 wasn’t bad enough, the 2006 Browns schedule gets brutal towards season’s end. Fantasy owners should take note - starting in week 14 the Browns face Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tampa Bay! If any Cleveland players come out of the gate strong, be sure to trade them away for quality talent before week 14.

Against the Run / Against the Pass
Examining the 2006 Schedule using an opponent's record from the prior year gives you a reasonable idea of schedule difficulty. Sure, its far from perfect, still it offers you a "vaguely right" approach.

Ideally, for Fantasy Football purposes, we'd like to objectively segment defensive team pass and rush performance. Then, everything else being equal, forecast passing and rushing using last year's data. The problem is, in going from last year to this year, everything else isn't equal.

If you segment last year’s defensive pass and defensive rush performance and follow it blindly, you face the very real risk of being "precisely wrong." All that being said, year-to-year pass/rush data does offer a modest level of predictive accuracy. Given that, next up I offer up a few more observations.

* In this space in 2004, I identified the Colts as the team having the easiest pass defense schedule. I said, “Peyton Manning owners could really be loving life if this data holds up.” Well, Peyton Manning took full advantage and broke many of Dan Marino’s single-season records. Guess what? This season, the Colts again have the distinction of facing the easiest pass defense schedule in the entire NFL. Peyton Manning owners are you listening? On paper it looks like another ultra-elite Fantasy season for Manning. Wow!

* Presumably it’s DeShaun Foster or perhaps rookie DeAngelo Williams, but regardless of who it is, the RB that gets the bulk of carries in Carolina this year could turn out to be very special. The Panthers have one of the easiest schedules when it comes to opposing run defense. On the flip side, they face decent pass defenses. Again more good news for Foster and Williams as that plays right into Coach John Fox’s offensive scheme – run the ball.

* Seattle arguably had the best rushing attack in the NFL last year. In 2006, the rich could get richer. According to last year's data, Shawn Alexander and the Seahawks face the softest run defense schedule in the entire NFL.

* If Arizona Coach Denny Green can keep his offense on track and build from last year’s success, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald could put up huge numbers in 2006. The Cardinals face the 2nd easiest pass defense in the entire NFL. Add Edge James into the backfield and things look very promising. If Warner gets hurt and rookie QB Matt Leinart is forced to step in late, he could be a huge factor - the Cardinals face the 49ers in Week #16!

* We all know the Browns want to run the ball. But, on paper they face the most difficult NFL run defense schedule in 2006. Making matters worse for fantasy managers holding Cleveland RBs, weeks 13 to 16 look particularly hard for the Browns. All this could make veteran WR Joe Jurevicius a decent late round gamble as the Browns may be forced to pass more than they would like.

* Using last year's data and this year's schedule, the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Jets and Texans may have the biggest challenge running the ball. While prior year rush defense offers some forecasting validit

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