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My draft position was just determined, and I'm picking 10th in a 12 team league. If I'm not drafting top 4 then I'd just as soon be towards the back of the draft as I feel the talent drops off quickly, and I'd rather have an early second round pick.
I have been using PCDrafter now for a couple of years, and strongly believe it to be my #1 secret weapon in preparing me for the big day. I can stare at the numbers all I want, but nothing compares to actually sitting down and participating in a mock draft, making decisions based on who is available and who I think will be available when the draft gets back to me. Another huge advantage of mocking with PCDrafter is it doesn't hurl insults when I "steal" its player, and doesn't make Twinkie jokes when I take Lendale White in the 4th round (or Ron Dayne in the 15th). Both of these traits will be prevalent in my live draft.
For this draft I have set PCDrafter to use standard FFTOC scoring rules in a 16 round draft. I have set the max roster size to 2QB, 5RB, 5WR, 2TE, 2K, 2DEF with a starting lineup of 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K. I tried some other roster configurations, but found this one to best represent the tendencies of the my league.
Like any true Lions fan, the best day of the year is draft day. So lets get started...
Pick 1.10: Tom Brady, QB, NE
It has been all RBs off the board up until this point. In past years I have always looked to draft the best available RB with my first pick. However, the landscape of fantasy football seems to be changing with more RBBCs and injuries. Outside of LT I have questions about just about every RB in the draft. Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee are the next RBs on the board and I don't feel either is worth my first round pick. Tom Brady is on the board, and I am ecstatic to pick him. Brady plays every game, was the top fantasy scorer last season, and the Patriots don't let up when they are ahead late in games. While some don't feel Brady can repeat his 2007 numbers, I think he could surpass them. The Patriots should be on a mission after their Super Bowl letdown and their schedule is even easier this year. I am extremely confident in this pick and the Gold algorithm agrees.
Pick 2.3: Jamal Lewis, RB, CLE
With no RB in round 1, I feel I have to take one here. It's comes down to Brandon Jacobs or Jamal Lewis. While I would like Jacobs in this spot, he shares a buy with Tom Brady, my first round pick. This isn't a deciding factor for me, but it is in the back of my mind. Lewis had a monster year last year putting up over 1500 total yards and 11 TDs. His schedule is a bit tougher this year, but I still like him to repeat. Lewis is my pick.
Pick 3.10: Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI
Gold algorithm tells me to take Lendale White here, but ADP tells me he should be around at least one more round. The legit fantasy #1 WRs are going fast, and I don't want to end up with an unproven guy like Bowe or Calvin Johnson as my top option. Boldin should have a chip on his shoulder this year and in any given game can become ARI QB's (Warner/Leinert) #1 target.
Pick 4.3: Lendale White, RB, TEN
What do you know, Lendale White is still around for my fourth round selection. Gold algorithm ranks him as my #1 option here, and I don't want to wait any longer to get my #2 RB. Lendale should have another 1000 yard season and get the goal line carries. You've got to like that in a 4th round pick. The next RBs are Edge James and Earnest Graham and I certainly like White better than those options. Lendale White is my pick.
Pick 5.10: Lee Evans, WR, BUF
Oh boy. It seems like it has been forever since my last pick and all the #2 WRs I had hoped would fall to me are gone. Shockey could be a good pick here, but ADP tells me he should be around later. Evans is the top rated WR and my draft strategy tells me to favor young guys with upside over older players (Hines Ward) with similar draft value. With this pick I am betting on the development of Trent Edwards and hoping the Bills let him throw down field a bit more in his sophomore season.
Pick 6.3: Jericho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
I'm not completely enamored with Lee Evans as my full time WR #2, so I am looking here to get a solid #3 who I can rotate in on good match ups. Evans has a buy week 6 and plays the Patriots weeks 10 and 17. In these weeks Cotchery has the Bengals, Rams, and Dolphins. Even if my league doesn't score week 17, I like these match ups. Cotchery put up 1100+ yards last year but only had 2TDs. With Favre under center I expect those TDs to go up significantly. Cotchery is my pick.
Pick 7.10: Fred Taylor, RB, JAX
The Gold algorithm has been screaming Shockey for a few rounds, and I know I just got done saying I liked young guys with upside, but I feel I need a RB #3, and Fred Taylor is too good to pass up in this spot. Has he finally figured out how to stay healthy? His second half numbers were great last year, and I hope they continue into 2008.
Pick 8.3: Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
Jeremy Shockey had a chip on his shoulder BEFORE he got run out of New York. Now in NO with a much better and more consistent QB he should perform with the top tier TEs. I am very happy to get Shockey in the 8th round.
Pick 9.10: Vikings, D, MIN
Gold algorithm is telling me to go RB here, but I'm not sold on Selvin Young. The top ranked Ds (SD & NE) are off the board, but I fully expect MIN to challenge for that top DEF spot by years end. MIN plays Detroit, Chicago, and a Farveless GB twice each. Oh yeah, let's not overlook week 16 when the league championship could be determined. They face the awful Falcons would could by then be playing for the #1 2009 draft slot.
Pick 10.3: Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL
Crayton will be Romo's clear #2 this year with the departure of Terry Glen. Romo should be just as good if not better than last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Crayton surpass his 07 marks of just under 700 yards and 7TDs. I see this as another upside pick. Crayton has a high ceiling, and is relatively safe to not perform much below his projection (if he, TO, and Romo can all remain healthy).
Pick 11.10: Chris Brown, RB, TEN
I have all my starter spots filled except for K, and I'm not going to reach for a kicker - ADP tells me I should be able to wait a couple of rounds on that. The #1 spot in Texas is anything but secured, and Ahman Green could go down at any time. I like Chris Brown in this spot, and hope he turns into a starting back with decent match up plug-in potential.
Pick 12.3: Trent Edwards, QB, BUF
A huge benefit of going QB in round 1 is that I don't have to worry about a backup for a long time. I fully intend to play Brady every week except for his bye. If Brady had a late season bye, I would be tempted to not draft a backup, and take the best match up I can on waivers when the week arrives. Because his bye is week 4, I will pick up a #2 in the draft and drop him to waivers before week 5. Gold suggests Tarvarias Jackson in this spot, but I much prefer Trent Edwards week 4 matchup - the St. Louis Rams.
Pick 13.10: Gostkowski, Stephen, K, NE
Every team has to field a kicker so I might as well take the #1 projected kicker on the highest scoring offense when he is available in the 13th round.
Pick 14.3: Reggie Williams, WR, JAX
Reggie Williams put up 600 yards and 10 TDs last year. He does have some injury concerns, but if he can stay healthy he could be a very solid WR option. No one else looks even close at this point in the draft, and if he can put up anywhere near 10 TDs in 08 he is an absolute steal in the 14th round.
Pick 15.10: Kevin Jones, RB, CHI
It's flier with upside time. Kevin Jones is convinced he can be the opening day starter in Chicago. While I'm not as confident as he seems to be, I'm even less confident in every other Bears RB. I see a huge ceiling for Kevin Jones in 08, and as my #5 RB I wont be hesitant to drop him if he gets hurt (likely) or I see someone I fancy on the waiver wire.
Pick 16.3: Redskins, DEF, WAS
Time for a backup defense. I'm pretty much only looking at MIN's week 8 bye here. Washington is playing the Lions, and as a born Lions fan I know that can only mean one thing... a monster fantasy week for Washington's defense.
While my draft position didn't allow for a top tier RB, I am very happy with my team overall. PCDrafter grades me out as the #1 team in both total points and starter points. Not bad for 10th in a 12 team league. My final roster looks like this:
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Outcome...
Starters:
QB Brady, Tom NE
RB Lewis, Jamal CLE
RB White, Lendale TEN
WR Boldin, Anquan ARI
WR Evans, Lee BUF
TE Shockey, Jeremy NO
D Vikings, Minnesota MIN
K Gostkowski, Stephen NE
Reserves:
QB Edwards, Trent BUF
RB Brown, Chris HOU
RB Taylor, Fred JAX
RB Jones, Kevin CHI
WR Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
WR Crayton, Patrick DAL
WR Williams, Reggie JAX
D Redskins, Washington WAS
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