Week Nine Shoot Outs
October 31, 2008

As you can surmise by now, the Stove is primarily a passing attack advisory blog because we believe that the key differential in winning fantasy football is identifying the “delta” in your QBs and WRs performances over your opponents’ QBs and WRs.  That delta is usually chasing the big game and/or the big play out of your options.

We focus on the top “shoot outs” –the top overs of the week-- because odds makers choose those clubs involved more often than most over time, and you should always be aware of that.

We now have eight weeks of data to chase that “delta” fairly consistently, and if they involve the shoot outs, we get pretty excited.  Overlay the weekly “soft” data, like a major attack weapon like the Steelers’ RB Parker or the Rams’ RB Jackson down with an injury, and you might have some compelling opportunities, not to mention an entertaining Stove blog.

So let’s go hunting for some action, shall we?

We usually begin with a stats analysis on club tendencies, first, with how opposing clubs have over the past seven or eight games attacked those most through the air, and second, how effective are those clubs’ opponents themselves (YPPA) to best exploit the opportunity. But, it doesn’t always come out at you right away, and you have to dig a little.  Let’s illustrate.

The clubs with the highest passing attempts against per game are as follows:

Rank   Club                PATs    Week 9 Opponent

1.      Bears              41        Lions

2.      Chargers           39        Bye

3.      Titans              35        Packers

4.      Jets                 35        Bills

5.      Saints              35        Bye    

By and large, not exciting at all.  Yes, the Packers can throw, but the Titans are BEST in YPPA against. Just can’t see a WR Driver worth a start there.  At least we caught one of this week’s shoot outs, DET@CHI, but we have our doubts on the Lions holding up their end.  So let’s dig deeper.

The clubs with the highest YPPA against are as follows, as our toes get tingling now:

Rank        Club                YPPA   Week9 Opponent

1.      Lions                9.5       Bears

2.      Rams                8.5       Cardinals

3.      Dolphins            8.2       Broncos

4.      Cardinals           8.1       Rams

5.      Seahawks          8.0       Eagles

6.      Texans             7.9       Vikings

7.      Patriots            7.9       Colts

8.      Broncos            7.9       Dolphins

The Stove, by its own basic independent analysis, has quickly identified the odds makers shootouts!

The highest overs, in order:

MIA @ DEN

We identified Dolphins QB Pennington last week as a quickly emerging fantasy option, and if there are still doubts, Pennington has the second-best YPPA OVERALL in the league. Yes, WR Ginn was up against an absurdly gimpy corner all game last week for that proverbial break out, but the Broncos lost their best corner and there’s nothing left to cover the burner this week either.  Which Dolphin TE gets a TD (or two) is beyond us.  Heck, Pennington may get a TD rec in the Wildcat, so make sure your league’s scoring rewards it!

It’ll be interesting to see how guru Shanahan ends up attacking the Fins.  If there ever was a “good” play out of the Broncos WR2s (Royal) and WR3s (Stokley), its this week.  The only intrigue here is that Stokley is apparently healthier, but TE Scheffler is not.  Does the over-“sleepered” RB Torain emerge? Can’t wait to see the box score.

ARI @ STL

You kind of wish that the Cardinals’ QB Warner’s return to his former stomping grounds would give you more controversy juice, but bible-thumper Kurt just won’t have it I guess.  The Cards three-man WR corps is officially fantasy friendly, really, the only one of its sort this year.  Does the really over-“sleepered” R Hightower also emerge?

The “fact” that Rams RB Jackson is apparently still iffy is annoying to us, one, because of course coaches want the other team to keep guessing, and two, it simply deflects from the obvious, which is that a good passing team like the Cardinals will score against the 8.5 Rams secondary, and it doesn’t matter if the Rams wins the time-of-possession game and runs Jackson.  The Rams’ Bulger will have to match the scores to compete. End of story.  Hopefully, it’s not the end of the story, just yet, for WR Holt.

HOU @ MIN

One of those match ups where clubs cannot run, although they wish they could, So clubs pass.  And the Texans’ Schaub can do that, at least against weaker clubs.  Given Schaub’s recent success, he’s a great start, and WR Walter must have read our blog last week because he’s now fantasy worthy.  Oh, they might try to run RB Slaton, because then they’d see less of AD.  Here’s hoping that this week does not begin the expected decline of the Texans pass attack, a week early.

Vikings QB Frerrote and WR Berrian is an unlikely quality fantasy tandem, but we’re all over them now in our leagues. “Unlikely” because try to trade Berrian, and you won’t get value.  All you can do is start him, even over Owens or Ocho, and quietly collect the W’s out of your fantasy WR3 who’s playing like a WR1 right now.  Fantasiers could do worse than starting Gus in this one.  Trust us.  Just don’t trust any other Vikings WR, TE, etc..

NE @ IND

Nothing stays the same too long in the Not-For-Long league.  A year ago, this match up gave the Patriots WR Moss way too much attention.  Shoot out heaven.  Both teams’ QBs have dropped in fantasy relevance this year though.  The Stove never drafts divas, so of course we’re enjoying the front-runner’s struggles immensely.

You think that odds makers would have appreciated to hear that the Colts QB Mannign suffered from complications of surgery that adversely affected his early season ability to cover the over?  But the 7.9 Patriots secondary is too soft to ignore.  Its up to Belechick to decide who they wish to single on, Harrison or Gonzalez.  That’s the only intrigue here.  It’s going to be a dome shoot out, guys.

DET @ CHI

Happily for odds makers, the Bears show no qualms over scoring the entire over onto a divisional rival like the Lions, or they wouldn’t be in the Stove shoot outs.  We actually like the Eagles’ 8.0 Seahawks match up more than this one.  We like the “tandem” of Bears’ QB Orton and the Lions WR Johnson here.  Nothing else.  Here’s hoping Lions’ old-school HC Marinelli doesn’t do the desperate pants drop to try to motivate his grown(?) men.  And former old school Bear Singletary wondered why clubs never hired him as a HC until now as simply a stop gap interim?