So, it’s draft day in your favorite league and you are picking from the #5 spot. Sure, you may think that it isn’t any fun drafting at #5. You can’t even catch a glimpse of LaDainian Tomlinson or Steven Jackson from #5, and you don’t even get the consolation prize back-to-back picks that go to the team at #10. However, never fear. You should be in position to acquire some great players in the first few rounds, and you can probably find yourself a bargain or two while you’re at it. Let’s use ADP to simulate what a great draft might look like selecting from the #5 spot in a 10-team league.

Using the ADP as a guide, the first four picks fall like this:

1 – LaDainian Tomlinson
2 – Steven Jackson
3 – Larry Johnson
4 – Frank Gore

A year ago, Shaun Alexander would have been considered a steal at #5, but times have changed. Combine the foot fracture that cost him six games last year, the fact that he will be 30 by the time the season starts, and last year’s 3.6 ypc avg., and we will let someone else invest their first round pick on Alexander.

Brian Westbrook is certainly a consideration here. It scares us a little that Westbrook seems to constantly be dinged up – he battled knee and ankle injuries for most of last year but still managed to play in 15 games. Westbrook is a multi-talented RB who will give you good production on the ground and near WR production in the passing game. This year rookie Tony Hunt may steal a few of his rushing TDs, so Westbrook won’t be our selection at #5.

I may be alone on this, but I think this is way too early for Reggie Bush.

Now, Willie Parker has to be a serious consideration at #5. Fast Willie put up 16 total TDs and almost 1500 rushing yards last year, and that may not be his ceiling. However, there are a couple of factors we have to consider. First, the Steelers are saying that they are going to put more emphasis on the passing game this year. Secondly, the Steelers end of the year schedule (i.e., your playoffs) features tilts against some very tough rushing defenses.

Joseph Addai enjoyed a very nice rookie season (1081 rushing yds, 7 rushing TDs, 40 rec., 1 rec. TD) that could have ended with him being named Super Bowl MVP. Addai accomplished this while sharing ball with the now departed Dominic Rhodes. How much will Addai’s workload/production increase this year? Well, Addai averaged 14 carries/game last year while Rhodes averaged 12 carries. With Rhodes out of the picture I look for Addai to at least match the 24 carries a game that Edgerrin James had in his last season as a Colt. Those carries should translate to old Edge-like production. That is good enough for us to choose Addai over Parker by a very small margin.

Round 1, #5 overall – Joseph Addai, RB

Here’s how the next ten picks would play out according to ADP:

6 – Westbrook
7 – Reggie Bush
8 – Willie Parker
9 – Alexander
10 – Laurence Maroney
11 – Peyton Manning
12 – Rudi Johnson
13 – Clinton Portis
14 – Willis McGahee
15 – Maurice Jones-Drew

That gives us a couple of options at #16. We could take the first WR off the board. Chad Johnson would make a lot of sense here. QB Carson Palmer is now fully recovered from the knee injury that slowed him last year, and Johnson will have to pick up some of the slack left by the suspended Chris Henry. If there were no RBs that we really liked still on the board we would take Ocho Cinco in uno momento.

Ronnie Brown was a top-10 fantasy pick last year, but his performance was generally underwhelming. His NFL career so far has consisted of two seasons hovering around the 1000-yard mark with 5 TDs in each year. Maybe this year Cam Cameron turns Brown into LaDainian II, but we’re not gambling our second round pick on that happening.

Veteran fantasy football coaches fondly (or some cases, not so fondly) remember the days when having the Denver starting RB was akin to striking fantasy gold. Of course, that was before Mike Shanahan began playing his own personal starting RB shell game with the likes of Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, Mike Anderson and Ron Dayne.

This year, however, it looks like we may see the return of the one-RB system to Denver. Travis Henry produced for lowly Tennessee last year, and he should really produce for the Broncos this year. If Shanahan can resist the urge to mess with us we could see something approaching Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis-like production from Henry. Sounds like a second round pick to me.

Round 2, #16 overall – Travis Henry, RB

Back to the rest of the draft…

17 – Johnson
18 – Steve Smith
19 – Brown
20 – Larry Fitzgerald
21 – Cedric Benson
22 – Torry Holt
23 – Reggie Wayne
24 – Marvin Harrison

Now that we have two solid starting RBs it’s time to take a look at other positions with our third round pick. This is a great spot to take a receiver since the last of the premium WRs are still on the board.

Roy Williams certainly has the all the qualifications to be a great #1 WR. He finished fourth in the NFL with 1310 receiving yards last year, and at only 25 years old he still has tremendous upside. The big question mark is how the arrival of rookie Calvin Johnson affects Williams. No matter how great Williams is, the Lions didn’t take Johnson at the top of the draft to be a decoy.

Last year Williams scored a relatively modest 7 TDs while super-sleeper Mike Furrey had 6 TDs. The addition of Johnson to the mix makes it seem unlikely that Williams will significantly exceed the 7 TD mark in 2007.

One WR who did score a lot of TDs last year is Terrell Owens. Don’t get so caught up in his drop problems that you forget that T.O. led the league with 13 receiving TDs last year. The Cowboys are saying that the ball will be coming to T.O. even more this year, so an increase over last year’s output is certainly possible. Owens has missed a few practices so far with hamstring soreness and back spasms, so keep an eye on that situation. However, he basically rode a stationary bike for most of last year’s training camp and still put up big numbers once the games started counting. As long as he stays relatively healthy in the preseason Owens is a great choice for our third round pick.

Round 3, #25 overall – Terrell Owens, WR

26 – Carson Palmer
27 – Williams
28 – Antonio Gates
29 – Edgerrin James
30 – Thomas Jones
31 – Anquan Boldin
32 – Marques Colston
33 – Andre Johnson
34 – Drew Brees
35 – Cadillac Williams

We still need a QB, and fortunately for us there is a great one still available in the fourth round. Tom Brady was fourth in TD passes (24) last year despite throwing to guys who might have as well been those kids from Peyton Manning’s SNL skit. This year Brady will be playing with serious deep threats in Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth. The first time Brady and Moss hook up for an 80 yard TD you will smile and think about what a steal Brady was in the fourth round.

Round 4, #36 overall – Tom Brady, QB

37 – DeAngelo Williams
38 – Deuce McAllister
39 – Javon Walker
40 – Marion Barber
41 – Marshawn Lynch
42 – Lee Evans
43 – Brandon Jacobs
44 – T.J. Houshmandzadeh

The first time Brady and Moss hook up for an 80 yard TD you will smile and think about what a steal Moss was in the fifth round. Put me down for Randy Moss!

Round 5, #45 overall – Randy Moss, WR

46 – Adrian Peterson
47 – Plaxico Burress
48 – Donald Driver
49 – Vince Young
50 – Marc Bulger
51 – Hines Ward
52 – Jerious Norwood
53 – Donovan McNabb
54 – Darrell Jackson
55 – Ahman Green

In 2003 Jamal Lewis was breaking rushing records in Baltimore. Three mediocre seasons later Lewis is the new undisputed starting RB in Cleveland. While that may not seem like a recipe for success, there is reason to believe that Lewis can carry the load for the Browns in 2007. The Browns invested heavily in their offensive line via free agency and the draft, and Lewis has reportedly been running well in training camp. We will probably never see the Lewis of 2003 again, but he still has great value as a sixth round pick.

Round 6, #56 overall – Jamal Lewis, RB

Here’s how our next few rounds unfold:

Round 7, #65 overall – Jeremy Shockey, TE

This pick works because a) Shockey is a great TE, and b) just think how entertaining it would be to have Owens, Moss and Shockey on the same team. The potential team names alone are limitless.

Round 8, #76 overall – Jerricho Cotchery, WR

Cotchery put up very similar numbers to teammate Laveranues Coles last year, and we’re getting the younger Cotchery a round and a half later than Coles went (#61). Sounds like a bargain to me.

Round 9, #85 overall – Jon Kitna, QB

Kitna was fourth in passing yards last year; those numbers should only go up with Calvin Johnson in Motown. Kitna should be somebody’s starting QB, but he’s our backup to Brady.

Round 10, #96 overall – Joey Galloway, WR

It may seem like he has been around forever, but the 35 year old Galloway still has it. He has managed to put up back-to-back 1000 yard receiving seasons with Bruce Gradkowski and Chris Simms as his QBs. Jeff Garcia should add stability to the Tampa offense and enable Galloway to reach the 1000-yard mark once again.

If you’re worried about the age factor, a viable alternative to drafting the veteran Galloway would be to take the best defense available here and then draft youngster D.J. Hackett in the 11th round.


How Did We Do?
So, here is the roster that we have assembled after ten rounds of drafting at the #5 spot.

QB – Tom Brady
RB – Joseph Addai
RB – Travis Henry
WR – Terrell Owens
WR – Randy Moss
WR – Jerricho Cotchery
TE – Jeremy Shockey
Bench – RB Jamal Lewis
Bench – QB Jon Kitna
Bench – WR Joey Galloway/DJ Hackett

Not a bad way to start a season. Defense, kicker and additional bench players can be drafted in the remaining rounds. This draft has the given us a nucleus of players that should be in contention to the end of the season. A little maintenance in the form of a few timely free agent pickups and/or trades could produce a championship caliber team.

Sure, it would be nice to pick at the #1 spot. But whether you’re picking at #1, #5 or #10 the key to the draft is to prepare and keep your cool once the picks start flying. Virtually everyone I’ve played with says that the draft is the best part of the fantasy year, so make sure that you enjoy the process while you are drafting your way to a championship.