Fantasy Football Scouts


The Tony Finn
 Column

Ghosts and Injuries
Posted 09/04/06
4for4.com Exclusive
You’re an experienced fantasy owner. You’ve participated in your share of free and pay leagues -- many of you compete in the weekly challenge of the FFTOC format. You come prepared to your favorite and most competitive annual draft by doing your homework, subscribing to 4for4.com, and utilizing the tools provided by Greg Alan and his staff. But there is one thing you can’t seem to overcome when the bell rings and the selection process begins: ignoring that walk down memory lane and remembering the good old seasons filled with stud names like Priest Holmes, Brett Favre, Corey Dillon and Curtis Martin.

These players always seem to stop by your fantasy locker and remind you just how good they were. Although you didn’t plan on including these players in your draft day strategy -- as the draft process slowly progresses towards the middle rounds you begin to question your plan and the ghosts of fantasy performances past stand on your shoulder and whisper sweet lies to your ear.

Names like Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin and Brett Favre staring back at you from your desk or laptop monitor may be nostalgic, but they are now ghosts of what they used to be and represent fools gold and risky late round selections.

Most desperately want to see the young player in the old body and find a way to rationalize the use of a late round pick on these fantasy Hall of Famers. While most won’t make early round reaches for Martin or Favre, you can bet a small fortune that there is always one in the league that will draft Martin in the late rounds and follow the pick with a comment like, “just in case”, “you gotta believe” or “he has upside if he gets healthy.”

As soon as the summer long anticipated selection process is complete these same owners wonder if that mid-round ’homer-pick’ might cost them a championship.

One of the most underrated processes when evaluating talent for an upcoming draft, or weekly lineup decision is 4for4.com’s, “Player Performance and Age” and the injury and risk grades that are built into the 4for4.com preseason player rankings.

Avoid high maintenance players – read this classic article:
http://www.4for4.com/members/injuryguide.php  

To this day, no other research in this area comes close.

 Remember
Make a plan and stick to it. Patience is a virtue (don’t give up on a player(s) after one underachieving performance).

You don’t have to date or marry a cheerleader to be cool. In other words, just because the package is pretty, doesn’t make it reliable or trustworthy.

Trust that over the course of a season the 4for4.com forecasting model will give you the best chance to get the most from your player personnel. Use the 4for4.com Weekly Assistant Coach (WAC).

Lessons can and should be learned from each fantasy season, just as reality offers us lessons. Discipline, hard work, and trust go a long way in forging fantasy success.


A quick look-see at some fantasy injuries to monitor this week:

QB Drew Bledsoe was bloodied in the preseason but Bledsoe said that other than his neck being somewhat sore -- he'll be ready to play in the season opener.

QB Matt Leinart (shoulder) had an MRI which showed that he has a slight sprain -- but not to his shoulder, but to his brain. The newest addition to the rookie Millionaire Club will be writing a check soon to settle a palimony case with his college girlfriend. No wonder he was looking for a contract that was above and beyond the typical overall 10th pick of the draft.

QB Ben Roethlisberger (appendectomy) at a minimum will miss the first week of the regular season while WR Hines Ward (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game vs. Miami. Ward will likely be active but is a risky fantasy start.

RB Ron Dayne (toe) who was claimed by the Houston Texans could emerge but only if Wali Lundy falls from grace very quickly. Dayne is familiar with the offense and has a history with Kubiak and the zone-blocking scheme the Texans use.

RB Brian Westbrook (foot) is good to go after putting in a full week of practice.

RB Cedric Benson (shoulder) is starting to experience some youthful frustration. The Bears announced that Thomas Jones (hamstring) would start Week 1.

RB Jamal Lewis (hip) wasn’t expected to take full-term practice, but felt good enough last week to being contact work. He will start at close to 100 percent when the Ravens play Tampa Bay in Week 1.

‘Skins Coach Joe Gibbs says RB Clinton Portis (shoulder) has a chance at playing in Week 1.

RB Laurence Maroney (leg) is day-to-day, but the team could lean towards inactivating him insuring him an extra week of recovery.

My sources at the Charlotte Observer report that WR Steve Smith (hamstring, toe) could have played in the final two-preseason games had they counted. He has been and will be ready for the season opener.

WR Terrell Owens (hamstring) is a lock to start in Week one barring a setback to his hamstring.

WRs Torry Holt (chest) and Isaac Bruce (hamstring) will both start when the Rams host Denver in Week 1.

WR Joe Horn (back contusion) will not only be ready for the Saints season opener, he told me he was as healthy as he’s been in over a year.

WR Darrell Jackson (knee) is questionable for Week 1 at Detroit. Expecting Jackson to be in early-season form might not happen until mid-season. His lack of conditioning and camp time leans in a direction that leads me believe his knee injury is more serious than Holmgren and the Seahawks are letting on. Why else would the Seattle brass make an offer to New England and Deion Branch that actually met the outlandish asking price for the undersized wide out?

Rookie WR Chad Jackson (hamstring) has practiced all of one full day in training camp. While his conditioning is improving expecting him to play in Week 1 is the epitome of the glass being half full.

WR Braylon Edwards (knee) is well ahead of schedule and could dress in Week 1. But, he has a long way to go before he is completely healthy and a slam dunk start in traditional fantasy formats.

Seattle TE Jerramy Stevens (knee) is not expected to be back in the starting lineup until October at the earliest and backup TE Itula Mili (knee) is iffy to play in Week 1.

K Mike Vanderjagt (groin) is still questionable for Week 1. When the Dallas brass kept K Shaun Suisham on the roster Saturday it spoke volumes about the worries they have with Vanderjagt.

K Adam Vinatieri (ankle) has done enough at practice to be ready for Week 1. Plus, the Colts brass release backup K Shane Andrus on Saturday.