Fantasy Football Scouts


The Parker Hillery
 Column

Exploring Draft Day Bargains
Posted 08/19/06
4for4.com Exclusive

We are now right in the middle of fantasy draft season, which, to fantasy football coaches, means it's time to start bargain hunting. Anyone with a cheat sheet can scroll down a list and draft the highest ranked player available, but it's the true bargain hunters who will be able to put together the best teams on draft day. To that end, 4for4.com provides its Draft Day Bargains data sheet. This report calculates a bargain score for the top 139 overall players by subtracting each individual player's 4for4 ranking from his average draft position (ADP). A positive score indicates that player is typically being drafted lower than his estimated value (a bargain) while a negative score means that player is being drafted higher than his estimated value (a reach).

Sorting the list by "Bargain Score" will quickly show that Falcons running back Jerious Norwood has the highest score of +60 because he is currently ranked 90th overall, but he has an ADP of 150 (It is interesting to note the Mike Anderson had the exact same ranking and bargain score last year. He finished with over 1,000 yards rushing and 13 total TD’s!!!). Anderson was a pretty good bargain last year and now you know to keep an eye out for Norwood in the later rounds of your draft.

Next, let's take it a step further.

Obviously, most of the players with the highest bargain scores are going to be later round picks. Twelve of the top fifteen bargain scores belong to players with an ADP of over 100. However, that doesn't mean you can't find a good bargain in the fourth or even the second round.

To find these players, we can't rely on bargain scores alone. Instead, I've tried tweaking this report a bit to bring some of the bigger names to the top. First, I separated the report by position and ranked each Bargain Score among each position with the highest score receiving a ranking of one. For example, among the quarterbacks, Mark Brunell had the highest Bargain Score so his "Bargain Rank" is one. And since I'm looking for bargains here, I scratched any quarterback with a Bargain Score of zero or less off the list. After ranking the Bargain Scores, I then added each player's Bargain Rank with his Position Rank from the "Pos" column to create an "Adjusted Bargain Rank" (ABR). After sorting the list by ABR, here is what I was looking at for the quarterbacks:



Using this formula, the lower the ABR, the better. Because of that, Daunte Culpepper tops the list with an ABR of 9. He gets this score because he is the fourth rated quarterback overall and he is the fifth best bargain at the position, being drafted and average of 32 spots lower than his overall ranking. So, going back to the chart, if you're thinking of waiting a while to draft your first quarterback, you should consider Culpepper, Drew Bledsoe Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady who are all currently rated among the top ten quarterbacks, but aren’t typically being drafted any higher than 48th overall. Now you can combine this knowledge along with your insight into your own league and each player's individual ADP to determine when and where to make your moves in the draft.

Now let's take a look at the running backs. Applying the same calculations as before, here is what my chart looks like:



If you're looking for a steal at running back, and Shaun Alexander and Tiki Barber top the list. This might seem strange since both players are being drafted in the first round, but in Alexander’s case, you’re getting the number one overall player with the third pick in the draft. That’s a pretty good bargain. If you’re a risk taker and you end up with the top pick in your draft, you might want to consider trading down a couple of spots and see if you can get an extra pick or two. Barber is also a top five back who’s being taken a few spots later than his value would suggest and the same goes for Ronnie Brown – a top ten talent.

Warrick Dunn, Reggie Bush, De’shaun Foster, Willie Parker and Thomas Jones are in that next tier of backs you should keep an eye on as your draft progresses.

Next, let's take a look at the wide receivers:



Terry Glenn tops the list as a top 20 receiver who is even being drafted in the first ten rounds of a typical ten-team league. Chris Chambers, Larry Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson are next on the list. All are top-five receivers being drafted around one round later than their estimated value.

Finally, let's take a look at the tight ends:



Todd Heap, Heath Miller, Jeremy Shockey and Alge Crumpler all jump out as top-five players at the position. However each one of them is being drafted at least 14 picks later than their value would suggest. Any one of them would make an excellent starting tight end and now you know you won’t to have to overpay for them.

What you are trying to do here is predict what options will be available to you at different points in your draft. You need to know when you can afford to take a gamble on that high-risk talent you really want and when you need to play it safe. It's all about maximizing the value of every one of your picks and putting together a well-rounded, complete starting lineup for your particular league.

To accomplish that, you need to go beyond just reading off the top name on your cheat sheet. Try putting together a separate list of players that you think could end up being bargains. Write down where you think each player will get selected in your league and keep track during the draft. You obviously don't want to waste a pick on a guy if you think he or three other guys just like him will still be available two rounds later. Often times, just one or two key picks here or there can turn an average draft into an awesome one. It's great when a bargain unexpectedly falls into your lap on draft day, but it can be even better when you plan for it to happen.