|
So the big day is just around the corner.
You’ve spent a lot of time, and plan even more time, grazing 4for4.com’s Web pages looking at every article and stat you can possibly find to prepare yourself.
But, once the draft starts you’re on your own when it comes to picking the players. As of now, 4for4’s scouts can’t be rented out (although maybe in the future).
So, you’ll be the one to have to deal with unexpected issues, like your guy being taken one pick before you, or, a surprise falling that you didn’t expect at a position you may not need. As a result, you will most likely have to make quick decisions.
Here are some thoughts…
BE PREPARED
Whether you were a boy scout or not, this should always be your motto, but especially coming into a fantasy football draft.
USE THE TECHNOLOGY
While you can’t rent out your favorite 4for4 scout, perhaps the next best thing is the pcDrafter software loaded with the latest 4for4.com player projections. Inside pcDrafter you’ll also find the GOLD algorithm.
Come the fourth round, if you’re not 100% sure if you should be taking a stud-TE, a good WR, a solid QB or a journeymen RB then pcDrafter is for you.
The GOLD algorithm systematically and methodically analyzes all of the info and dynamic events going on in your draft. It does all the calculations, reviewing each team’s needs, the best value pick currently available for each team and much more - all in a fraction of a second. No matter how fast you are, it’s just not humanly possible to identify all the variables like pcDrafter does in the blink of an eye. In addition, pcDrafter also gives you the power to mock draft any time you want. And while doing so, it calculates the best player to fit your team based on your league’s point system.
Definitely take the time to check it out.
I’ve been fortunate enough to do so the past few weeks – and is my wife ticked. The grass is a foot high, the garbage is overflowing and the bills are late. But, what do you expect – it’s August – the busiest fantasy football time of the year.
YOUR LEAGUE
Every league usually has little twists and turns to make it different from all the others. And, as more and more leagues develop, more and more rules are dreamt up to try and make it unique, whether it’s in scoring or protecting players from year-to-year. Be sure you’re aware of them all and have a plan to take advantage.
Points
Know the point system of your league inside and out. Naturally, a wide array of point scoring systems
exist. Touchdown leagues don’t seem to be as popular any more, but they are the simplest as far as scoring: 6 points for touchdowns and bonus points for over 300 yards passing and 100 rushing/ receiving. Some leagues reward for each reception and others include bonus points for return yardage.
Either way, quarterbacks and defenses tend to vary the most as far as importance of points and how they can affect the outcome of fantasy games.
Quarterbacks
A lot of leagues have adopted three or four points for a quarterback throwing for a touchdown pass. Some, though, still give the full six. Obviously those 2-3 extra points can be huge when the final score comes out. If your league rewards six points for a quarterback throwing a touchdown, you may want to draft them earlier.
How much earlier?
Well the best answer is ultimately found in pcDrafter. It has it down to a near science. Let pcDrafter do the math and in less than two seconds, you’ll have a mathematically rigorous answer at your fingertips.
BTW, last year’s touchdown pass leaders were:
Carson Palmer (32)
Peyton Manning (28)
Tom Brady (26)
Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck, Eli Manning and Jake Delhomme (24).
I wouldn’t expect Brees to be in the top-five this year, but I do look for Eli’s numbers to increase. Drew Bledsoe, who was sixth with 23 last year, could also see his numbers increase.
Regarding yardage, Brady (4,110), Trent Green (4,014), Brett Favre (3,881), Palmer (3,836) and Eli Manning (3,762) were the top-five producers.
Defenses
Some leagues just give six points for defensive or special teams touchdowns. Many leagues offer points for sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and points given up, as well as touchdowns.
I’ll never forget a few years ago when I had the Giants defense. The offense threw an interception that resulted in a touchdown, but those points all factored in on what the defense gave up, even though they weren’t even on the field. It ended up costing me the game, and prize money.
Yes, I’m still a little bitter toward the concept of defensive scoring. I guess I just have a problem taking a defense before a player. But, if your league gives up the points for defenses, it would be in your best interest to get a good one, especially with the potential of putting up huge numbers.
The top-5 defenses going in mocks are Chicago (9th round), Carolina, (10th round), Pittsburgh (11th round), Indy (13th round) and Baltimore (14th round).
So when should you draft your defense?
You got it – see pcDrafter.
With pcDrafter, select the Mock Draft button and in seconds you’ll see a draft unfold before your eyes. You’ll be able to participate and battle against MockDrafter as it builds the rosters for the other teams in your league. Also, you’ll get a good feel for when the elite defenses in your league should be selected based on your league setup.
KNOW WHAT YOU NEED
Once your draft starts, organization is pivotal. The first couple rounds usually fly by, but as the draft lingers, picks tend to become slower and slower - often times it’s that one person taking tons of time, round after round. Use this time to prepare for your next pick.
Think ahead about the position you want to take as each round comes up. Naturally, you also have to adapt on the fly in case players fall that you don’t expect. I’m always writing down positions or players I want, as my pick gets closer.
While pcDrafter finds the optimal pick for your team, you still need to be thinking about End of Year SOS, handcuffing players and so on. For End of Season schedule analysis be sure to see:
http://www.4for4.com/members/reports/hotsp.php
Value
Drafts are all about value. A lot of GMs will take a running back for the simple fact they feel one HAS to be taken right there, or, because everyone else is doing it. If you’re picking high in the first round, you probably do want to go running back first. So far the top-seven picks in mocks look to be Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, Edgerrin James and Steven Jackson – in some order close to that. Those are all pretty safe bets to me at the position.
But after that, running backs take a little dip as far as potential and consistency in my opinion.
So, let’s say you have the 8th pick and the above seven names are gone … the next three running backs on the board in mocks are LaMont Jordan, Ronnie Brown and Rudi Johnson. Those may be okay selections, but none of those stand out to me as must-haves.
It’s here I would seriously consider taking the top wide receiver on my board, be it Steve Smith, Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson.
Why?
What you know is there are two GMs who will pick four more players by the time your pick snakes back for the second round. There’s a good chance if you like Jordan, Brown or Rudi Johnson, one of those could come back your way. Even if they don’t, the next RBs taken in mocks are Carnell Williams, Domanick Davis, Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee. The backs will be a near wash in my opinion, but you’ll at least have your top receiver.
So what should you do? Again - pcDrafter to the rescue.
pcDrafter gives you a highly effective platform to both prepare for your draft and to crush your competition during the drafting itself – what to do with the #8 pick? Give pcDrafter a hard look.
Here are a few things I found with pcDrafter when it was set up for my league’s rules:
- Terrell Owens, often ranked in the top three at WR, went after Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison and Anquan Boldin.
- Getting a top TE could be the key to a successful year. Antonio Gates, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey and Tony Gonzalez are all among the studs and many are ranked higher than QBs not named Peyton Manning.
- Tiki Barber #4 overall makes a ton of sense in my league.
KNOW WHAT YOUR OPPONENTS NEED
I’m big on organization.
pcDrafter can be a huge helper here too – as you enter each GMs picks, pcDrafter allows you to display each team’s roster and it also has some killer league-wide reports as well.
Naturally, you can always write all the picks down yourself, but doing EVERY pick for EVERY team can be stressful and/or distracting.
If you write down the picks or enter them into pcDrafter, it can really help your selection process, especially later in a draft. You’ll gain insights into what the guys you are competing against are thinking - or if they aren’t thinking at all.
You really want to pay attention to what the teams next to you in the draft order are doing with their picks.
Let’s say, again, that you have the 8th pick out of ten, and you are entering the middle-to-late rounds of your draft. So far your roster is pretty balanced out, you have a couple guys at each position but no spot is complete. You’re looking for back-ups and depth. The guys picking 9th and 10th are the opposite. They have a couple spots where they need no help, but having glaring needs in other spots. You may not know this if you aren’t keeping track of everyone’s pick.
Let’s say these guys are full, or just about full, at the running back position, but, only have one wide receiver each. At this point, there is no need to take a running back, even though you may need one. Since it’s a spot where these guys are full, at this point you know they are going to address their needs. So, if you still need a WR, take one. You’ll still get the back you want when your pick wraps around, and of course, knock another player off your opponents’ list they may want.
This skill can even be practiced using the pcDrafter. In fact, based on Jim Perrone’s analysis -
http://www.4for4.com/pre06/pcdraftart.php
- one of the real benefits of pcDrafter is not only making your team stronger but also making other teams in your league considerably weaker.
As Jim put it - pcDrafter GOLD vastly improved my team when used instead of typical ADP approaches. Further, GOLD very adeptly countered ADP drafting. GOLD has a killer punch and is very effective at counter punching as well.
BTW, if you use pcDrafter, seconds after your draft is over, you can generate some clean and helpful reports, showing all the team rosters and more.
EVERY PICK COUNTS
Drafts can linger on past when you expect. As a result, there are a lot of GMs who tend to make rushed, silly picks because they are too distracted. A lot of times maybe even a few drinks can play a factor as well.
Don’t fall for the trap.
Your championship can potentially be won in the late rounds.
Recall Larry Johnson from two years ago? He was shunned by then coach Dick Vermeil. Those who drafted Johnson got themselves a nice boost to their lineup later in the season after Priest Holmes went down.
Last year, owners who took Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn had themselves pleasant surprises most of the year as well.
There’s certainly nothing wrong with having a lot of depth on your team. You can use it for better matchups or for trade bait. The point is, you get that depth in the later rounds, so why not at least make an effort to make those picks count.
Yet another advantage of pcDrafter – the tool never gets tired, just don’t feed it beer.
Here are some players being selected after the 10th round in mock drafts so far this season:
QB
Trent Green and Jake Plummer (10th) - Green seems to always put up good numbers despite lack of big name receivers.
Brett Favre (12th) – How the mighty have fallen. If INTs don’t count against you, Favre should get plenty garbage-time points.
Steve McNair (13th) – You may find yourself starting McNair in a lot of games.
Chris Simms (15th) – Should improve in what will be his first full year.
RB
Lendale White (11th) – Should get goal line carries at the very least.
Marion Barber (12th) – Rumor has it he may find himself as the starter before the season is out.
Greg Jones (13th) – With Fred Taylor’s injury problems, Jones could be a steal.
WR
Reggie Brown (10th) – Someone has to be the number-one in Philly.
Donte Stallworth (13th) – Due for a breakout season.
Braylon Edwards (13th) – With Browns other acquired targets, Edwards may find himself open.
Kevin Curtis (14th) – Often being taken before Isaac Bruce in mocks.
TE
LJ John Smith (11th) – Now or never for this potential-filled tight end.
Heath Miller (11th) – Could be an absolute steal if he makes it to this far.
Kellen Winslow (12th) – Should develop into a favorite target.
Vernon Davis (12th) – Expected to contribute right away.
KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO
Has anyone noticed Mike Vanderjagt seems to be a stud every-other year? Has anyone other than me drafted him the years he DIDN’T put up the stud numbers?
For some reason, I always seem to start the run on kickers in my main league.
It’s not easy being the first person to take a kicker. More times than not someone will snicker or comment. I don’t fear being a laughing stock because I only take them when I feel comfortable with the other starters I have.
If pcDrafter gives you the signal, and it feels right, go for it.
Those who drafted Neil Rackers last year didn’t have to think twice about whom to start week after week.
This year, Adam Vinatieri seems to be the clear-cut choice, going around the middle of the 12th round.
Matt Stover is an interesting prospect this year. The Ravens should improve their ability to move the ball giving Stover more chances. He has
been going in the 15th or 16th round in most mock drafts.
Shayne Graham, going around the 14th round, is fourth on a lot of lists and should have a good year.
|