Each year, we all want “the guy.” We’d all love to have Larry Johnson, Steve Smith, Antonio Gates and Neil Rackers on our team. And why not - they all dominated their respective positions last year.

That said identifying the most consistent players often times yields a more effective draft. Fact based research has proven you should seek these consistent players out, especially when you’re in a tossup situation. For more on the benefits of going for these “Steady Eddie” types see:

 http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/consistency.php

Below I have compiled my list of the most consistent picks at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The emphasis is based on production compared to future expectations. Fair or not, the list is based on the last three seasons, so you won’t find studs such as LJ, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald on this list.


TOP 5 QUARTERBACKS

1. Peyton Manning – You could see this coming a mile away. He’s been surrounded by gold since he came into the league and has the hardest work ethic of any player in the game. He won’t accept less than perfect from himself or his teammates. He has finished no worse than third in final rankings among quarterbacks the last three seasons and is your best bet to dominate the position again this season. Admit it; none of you know the backup for Indy, that’s because Peyton will be out there all 16 games, year in and year out. His future outlook remains the same and with Edgerrin leaving, I believe Manning will likely challenge his numbers of 2004 (4,557-49TD) and he’s clearly the No. 1 QB going into 2006.

3-year averages (4,190-35TD-262ypg)


2. Brett Favre – Shouldn’t come as much of a shock, however most of us will be staying away from him this year. Favre has been as consistent as anyone the last 10-15 years, evidenced by his league record for consecutive games started. He has routinely finished near the top five QBs the last few seasons, but his fantasy importance is now negligible once you take the interceptions into play. Regardless, you can’t argue with the numbers. His current ADP of 92 actually may have him overvalued since he’s no longer a lock to even finish the season as the starter.

3-year averages (3,777-27TD-236ypg)


3. Tom Brady – You don’t win multiple Super Bowls with an average quarterback, but Brady still seems to be under appreciated. Like Favre, Brady hasn’t been in the Top 5 ADP for the last three seasons. His passing yardage has improved over each of the last three seasons, and he led the league with 4,110 yards in 2005. He’s definitely the most clutch of this top five. His 2006 season looks a little cloudier each day that Deion Branch sits out but he’s as good as any QB in the league at spreading the ball around. As we steamroll into the 2006 season, only Manning and the injured Carson Palmer (44) have a higher ADP than Brady (48).

3-year averages (3,807-26TD-238ypg)


4. Trent Green – I believe this guy has clearly been the most under-rated QB from season to season. When you look at what Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson have done over the last three years, you forget how good Green is. The lack of a No. 1 receiver may be the cause, but here’s a nice trivia question: Who’s the only quarterback to pass for over 4,000 yards in each of the last three seasons? Answer: Trent Green. He’s getting up there in age (35) but Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez are consistent threats. No team disguises the play-action pass better than the Chiefs, and that’s where Green will roll up most of his numbers. I believe his ADP of 78 is almost laughable; getting him in the seventh round would be robbery. Still, we all need to consider the loss of all-world tackle Willie Roaf. Unlike most tackles, Roaf offered that extra second of protection for Trent Green. Without Roaf, deeper routes will be abandoned and that will hurt the passing game.

3-year averages – (4,215-23TD-263ypg)


5. Matt Hasselbeck – This one came as a bit of a surprise but his three-year numbers hardly make him a supporting cast member for Shaun Alexander. He’s the real deal and one of the best decision-making quarterbacks in the league with low interception totals. He’s the only quarterback on this list to miss a game over the last three seasons, but he only missed two in 2004. With Nate Burleson, Darrell Jackson, and the porous NFC West, Hasselbeck won’t be giving this spot up any time soon. Sitting behind Brady, Hasselbeck (49) is a clear top five QB.

HONORABLE MENTION: Jake Delhomme, Daunte Culpepper (even with the injury), Donovan McNabb, Jake Plummer, Marc Bulger.


TOP 5 RUNNING BACKS (receiving TDs included but not receiving yards)

1. Shaun Alexander – The Peyton Manning of running backs. After you draft him, you simple enter his name and start thinking about your next pick. What’s scary is that he’s made almost a 200-yard jump the last two seasons as his touchdowns have risen dramatically from 14 in 2003 to 27 last season. As mentioned with Hasselbeck, playing in NFC West gives him a huge leg up on the No. 1 spot, perhaps for years to come. Alexander has been as low as 3rd in ADP data, which means that pick in the draft never felt so good.

3-year averages (1,670-21TD-105ypg)


2. LaDainian Tomlinson – Like Alexander, a ho-hum pick, capable of big points each time he goes out on the field. He may be the most talented player in the game and has finished the last three seasons ranked among the top three running backs. His receiving skills put him above the rest because no one is better in the open field. He’s had no fewer than 17 touchdowns each of the last three seasons. Although his ADP is 2nd overall, he seems less likely to match the years that Larry Johnson and Alexander are inclined to have on the ground.

3-year averages (1,481-18TD-95ypg)


3. Clinton Portis (shoulder) – You won’t find a much better start to a career than what Portis has accomplished. At 24 years old and offensive genius Al Saunders in control, Portis joins Alexander and Tomlinson as mainstays in the Top 5. Grabbing him as the 4th overall pick of the draft was a must before he hurt his shoulder. Still, this could be another breakout season for Portis.

3-year averages (1,474-11TD-101ypg)


4. Edgerrin James – This guy opens his career with Manning and Harrison and now moves to Warner/Fitzgerald/Boldin in Arizona. In turn, you’ll never see a defense solely focused on him. He uses his blockers as well as any running back and is an above-average threat as a receiver. His numbers will dip compared to what they were in Indy but feel good if he’s your No. 1 back. His No. 5 ADP is warranted but I’m worried about the O-line in Arizona, which had the worst running game in football. Still, Edge is worth the chance.

3-year averages (1,438-11TD-98ypg)


5. Tiki Barber – Last year, lost among in all the Alexander and Larry Johnson headlines was Barber’s amazing 1,860 yards. That makes two consecutive seasons that Barber has jumped 300 yards in the rushing category. He’s always been among the top receiving backs but just turned 31 years of age so his stay here will be temporary. No RB has more yards from scrimmage since 2003. With an ADP of 7th overall, Barber fits snugly into the picture with Eli expecting to spread the field even more. Add in the Giants want to do more short passes this year and Tiki remains undervalued.

3-year averages ( 1,531-10TD-96ypg)

HONORABLE MENTION: Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis


TOP 5 WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Torry Holt – The poster child for consistency, he has maintained dominance since arriving in the league, putting up a whopping six consecutive 1,300 yard seasons. Playing in St. Louis hasn’t hurt. He’s easily averaged over 100 catches per season as well and with Isaac Bruce slowly winding down, he’ll get even more balls thrown his way. His ADP of 19 will prove to be a bargain if the Rams get Steven Jackson to take pressure off Marc Bulger so he can get the ball off to Holt.

3-year averages (1,466-10TD-96ypg)


2. Marvin Harrison – You might have thought he was No. 1, surely with Peyton Manning throwing to him all these seasons. He doesn’t have the size or the speed but his mental connection with Manning is second to none. He also may have the best hands in football. What’s not to like? Even with Reggie Wayne and other targets, he finds a way to get double-digit touchdowns every season. Landing Harrison (23) at the end of the second round is a gift; he’ll be effective up to the age of 40.

3-year averages (1,177-12TD-77ypg)


3. Chad Johnson – He’s not all celebration, Johnson can play too. The Cincy offense is rounding out into the top two or three in the entire NFL. With a top-tier quarterback (he hopes), a solid run game, and an attention-worthy partner in crime (T.J. Houshmandzadeh); Johnson has all the ingredients to hang in this top five for years to come. His receptions have gone up from 90 the last two seasons and he’ll continually project out to over 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Oh and don’t forget he’s just 28 years old. Only Steve Smith (14) has a higher ADP than Johnson (16) amongst receivers.

3-year averages (1,354-9TD-85ypg)


4. Randy Moss – No doubt it helps that my research goes back 3 years, which includes his monster 2003 season (1,632-17TD). He may get bored too much and may be on a bad team but no one gets to the deep ball better and no one is a more attractive target in the red zone. His receptions are going down but he still scores. His 13 touchdowns in 2004 came on just 49 receptions. Since the Raiders will continue to struggle, he’ll find more opportunities in 2006 to maintain his top-5 status. I still think his ADP of 21 is tricky but worth the risk.

3-year averages (1,135-13TD-76ypg)


5. Terrell Owens – You didn’t think missing eleven games over the last three seasons would keep him out did you? He’s scored 29 touchdowns in just 37 games over that span, yikes! I’m not sure there is a better receiver after the catch than T.O. You look at the highlights; he’s taking slants 70 yards and doesn’t require 100 catches to do his damage, reaching 80 only once. Much like Moss, only a bad season, if you call it that, keeps him from being ranked higher. He turns 33 this season, so his glory days with Dallas will only last a few seasons. If his antics don’t start until year two in Dallas, he could outperform his ADP (20) quite nicely in 2006.

3-year averages (1,022-10TD-83ypg)

HONORABLE MENTION: Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Reggie Wayne, Rod Smith and Chris Chambers.


TOP 3 TIGHT ENDS

1. Tony Gonzalez – His 2004 season would have ranked top five among wide receivers, when he posted 102 catches, 1,258 yards, and seven touchdowns. He makes a mockery of linebackers who try to cover him and his down year of 2005 (79-905-2TD) came as teams couldn’t quite get a handle on Larry Johnson. With more focus to the running game and, as we mentioned earlier, a consistent performer in Trent Green, Gonzo looks to rebound, assuming the loss of Willie Roaf doesn’t weight to heavily. Recall, Gonzo practically disappeared last year when Roaf was absent from active duty. Still, I think an ADP of 50 seems about right for Gonzalez this season.

3-year averages (1,026-6TD-64ypg)


2. Antonio Gates – I feel like Gonzalez and Gates could start at power forward on my NBA fantasy team. The Chargers took a cue from Kansas City and went after the athletic b-baller. You wonder about his direction with Drew Brees out of San Diego but a young quarterback’s best friend is usually a running game and a nice tight end. Gates numbers will drop off slightly but he’s closer to being No. 1 on this list than No. 3. I don’t like the ADP of 26 for any tight end, but especially since Philip Rivers is his QB. I’d look for Gates in the 4th round.

3-year averages (818-8TD-55ypg)


3. Jeremy Shockey – Notice the trend here, all three of these tight ends have wide receiver skills. Shockey is a bit more of an injury risk but even after missing 7 games in 2003, he continues to pile up numbers worthy of starting in non-tight end leagues. With Burress and an improving Eli Manning, Shockey’s best days are ahead of him. He’s only 25 years old, and could find himself atop this list soon. An ADP of 51 is a little risky, given the way Shockey throws his body around but he could easily approach 75 catches this season.

3-year averages (697-5TD-54ypg)

HONORABLE MENTION: Alge Crumpler, Jason Witten, Todd Heap, and Randy McMichael.


Upshot?

Don’t over pay for last year’s Dazzling Finishers. Don’t expect them to sustain their late season high-level pace for the duration of the upcoming season. If you do, you’re fighting the odds and over the long run, point blank, you won’t make it.

Seek players who demonstrate consistent, but perhaps not spectacular performance, over an entire year. They can often be overlooked and somewhat taken for granted.

For the numbers, and the fact-based research, check out - http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/consistency.php