ADP Overvalued
Average Draft Position data is useful for determining where a player might get drafted in your league. That said if you simply follows the masses and go along with the norms and avoid taking calculated risks, you’ll likely end up with a team that’s decent, but certainly not dominating.

While finding and landing players that will exceed their draft position is vital. The same can be said for avoiding overvalued players on draft day.

Below we explain why select players will not put up stats equivalent to their Average Draft Position (ADP).


Deuce McAllister – ADP 45
by Kevin Rosebrook
With only 335 yards rushing last year and less than 10 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons, I don’t know how injury prone Deuce McAllister can be ranked at #45 in the ADP, especially as a back-up to Reggie Bush. Coming in as the ADP’s 26th ranked running back, Deuce is the highest positioned back-up in the rankings. Now I can see taking a back-up RB that high if he plays on a team like Kansas City, or Denver, or maybe Indy, but New Orleans? Did nobody see the Saints play last year? They were horrible, and I don’t expect much more from them this season either.

New Orleans finished the 2005 season ranked 31st in scoring offense, and 18th in the league in rushing. Will Drew Brees really help the offense that much? I don’t think so. And I don’t think Deuce belongs right behind Carson Palmer in the ADP rankings, and ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Tony Gonzales, and Jeremy Shockey. I might take Deuce at #70, but if you want him at #45, you can have him.


Thomas Jones ADP - 42
by Chris Kucharski
Thomas Jones has already been demoted to the second team on the depth chart and was placed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list on the first day of camp. Not a good sign for those who are interested in drafting the Bears' running back.

Jones skipped off-season workouts and is already the subject of trade rumors that have him going to Denver for WR Ashley Lelie. The veteran back is a long shot now to get touches with second-year back Cedric Benson healthy. Benson, who was the 4th pick in the 2005 draft, was paid a lot of money by the Bears and is definitely their preference to become the starting tailback and stay the starting tailback.

So, since Jones will probably not be the starter, he is not worth his #42 ADP ranking. Backs that have question marks like Ahman Green, (ADP 61), Curtis Martin (ADP 65) and Fred Taylor (ADP 66) would all be better selections before Jones at this point.

Naturally, this could change if Benson has injury problems, as the Bears would not want to rely on Adrian Peterson as an every-down back. But Benson is the future of the franchise and that coupled with Jones' problems makes Thomas Jones a risky pick at any time in the first six rounds.


Marc Bulger – ADP 58
by Chris Kucharski
"The Greatest Show On Turf" is no longer in St. Louis. With Mike Martz not involved in the Rams offense for the first time since 1998, it appears St. Louis will not be the offensive machine that helped them win a Super Bowl in 2000.

This means good and bad for quarterback Marc Bulger. The good is that he still has some dangerous weapons on offense like Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis and Stephen Jackson. Also, new head coach Scott Linehan will employ more multiple tight end sets and isn't afraid to go to max protection to keep his quarterbacks clean. And that's important for Bulger who has spent the last two seasons getting battered by opposing defenses.

The bad news is that the gaudy fantasy numbers that Rams players have been putting up the past several seasons are history. This will be especially true for the quarterback.

Coach Linehan will have the Rams running the ball more than the past and even though Bulger will have tight ends at his disposal in the new offense, they are young and raw. And even if Bulger gets more protection from Linehan's new scheme, he still will take hits like every NFL quarterback does and it remains questionable whether he will be able to handle it. The last factor for Bulger is his injured shoulder. Although, the team claims he is healthy, there are still questions about his arm strength and the effect it will have on Bulger's ability to go down field.

If you don't have a quarterback by the fifth round, don't take Bulger. There are several quarterbacks that are better picks in 2006 including ex-Ram Kurt Warner. There will also be better value at other positions in the fifth-sixth round area so don't be afraid to take your second receiver here or even a young tight end like Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap.


Marc Bulger – ADP 58
by Jeff Owens
Marc Bulger has a career passer rating of 90.6 and is the 2nd fastest QB ever to reach 10,000 yards. Had Bulger played in all 16 games last season, his numbers would have projected out at 4,592 yards and 28 TDs, almost 500 yards more than NFL leader Tom Brady (4,110).

His ADP of 58 makes him the 7th highest rated QB which seems like a bargain, right? Not so, considering Bulger playing 16 games qualifies as a minor miracle.

With a sore throwing shoulder, Bulger (2,297-14TD) missed half the season last year, which adds up to 10 games overall the last two seasons. With the mobility of a tree and a weakening offensive line, he was sacked 26 times in just eight games. And new coach Scott Linehan, who is changing the offensive system, has stated publicly a desire to get RB Steven Jackson more than the 17 carries per game he had last year.

In a 12-team draft this puts you at the end of the 5th round, where Eli Manning (ADP-54) would be a great pickup after a sophomore season of over 3,700 yards and 24 TDs. Assuming he’s gone, and he should be, the next crop of QBs are Daunte Culpepper (72) and the inconsistent Michael Vick (73).

You could even hold off until the 7th round for your QB, where Jake Delhomme (76) and Trent Green (78) are available along with their consistent fantasy production. This allows you to solidify your RB & WR situations by grabbing promising rookie Joseph Addai (55) in the 5th and big play WR Joey Galloway (63) in the 6th. Or switch it around and go with producers like T.J. Houshmandzadeh (57) and confirmed starter Cedric Benson (62) in the 5th and 6th rounds.

Either way, you are building a deep roster while still landing a valuable QB in the later rounds. Bulger can be good, but he can’t offset the potential depth gained by passing on him.

Easy call.