RB-RB-RB-WR		RB-RB-WR-WR
	RB-WR-RB-QB		WR-WR-RB-RB
	Manning-RB-RB-WR		Some Other?

Which of the above do you like? 

Well, the optimal sequences might just surprise you a little. Before I reveal what I found, a few assumptions.

SCORING RULES
6 points for all TDs, 0.04 points for each yard passed and 0.1 points for each yard rushing or receiving.

STARTING LINEUP REQUIREMENTS
1-QB
2-RB
2-WR
1-TE
1-FLEX (WR or RB, which leans heavy towards RB)

To keep the study manageable, I’ve ignored kickers and defenses, which typically go late in most drafts anyway.

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS
The findings herein only apply to the 2006 season. As NFL positional depth changes from year-to-year, so does the optimal sequence.

In addition, this analysis looks at the first four picks. After the first four picks, the assumption is each team will aggressively attempt to fill out its roster to yield a valid starting lineup using a rigorous value-based approach similar to the Gold algorithm found in pcDrafter. This keeps the final rounds of the draft consistent for all sequences and offers each team a level playing field and chance to succeed.

THE 4FOR4.COM DRAFT SIMULATOR
How did I fairly evaluate draft sequences? Simple. I repeatedly used the 4for4.com Draft Simulator and recorded the results.

The beauty of the Simulator is you can run 20-25 customized mock drafts in less than 45 minutes. Your competitors? At best they’ll spend an hour or more doing 1 mock draft or reading about some "expert mock draft" in a magazine. 

On top of everything else, the Simulator grades you out at the end and it’s always a click away.

The Draft Simulator is a very powerful tool, but it can be misunderstood. Before you run the 4for4.com Draft Simulator, please take the time to set up your inputs. That’s your job. Be sure to spend 5-10 minutes tweaking and experimenting with the inputs to get them exactly the way you like BEFORE rigorously using the tool. A few guys each year write in saying, “The Simulator drafted so many WRs, RBs etc. in the first six rounds. I don’t like it.” If that's the case, all you need to do is lower the WR or RB input requirement before you start the next simulation. Two minutes up front will buy you tons of insights down the line.

My simulation input screen looked as follows:

Number of rounds in Draft:
Number of teams in Draft:
Spot you want to draft from:
Number of QB's that usually start per team:
Number of RB's that usually start per team:
Number of WR's that usually start per team:
Number of TE's that usually start per team:
Number of K's that usually start per team:
Number of Team DEF's that usually start per team:


Notice I heaved up on RB (3.0) since I know many managers like to draft that way. I lowered the TE input to 0.5 since most tend to avoid TEs until later in a typical draft. In turn, I also lowered WR to 2.0 since I believe most flex league managers draft hoping to start 3-RBs and 2-WRs. Kicker and DEF were set to zero to keep the results manageable and have each simulation run as quick as possible.

Now, with the setup and assumptions documented, let’s dig in.

THE DRUM ROLL PLEASE
After 20 simulations with numerous sequences, a pattern emerged. The winners were the teams with the most points in their starting lineup. No opinions here, no gut feel, it's just math. 

Two sequences clearly and consistently proved to be top dog.

The winners:  RB-RB-RB-TE  and  RB-RB-RB-WR

The table below provides average starting lineup scores for some of the most popular draft sequences tested.

A GAME PLAN
If Antonio Gates gets back to his 2005 form, the message here is clear. Going heavy RB in the first three rounds and landing an elite stud TE in the 4th round has plenty of merit. Then, in rounds 5 thru 8 draft the best value at WR and QB to round out your roster. 

As an extension of this finding, drafting 3 RBs in rounds 1-3 this year is a solid and safe plan. If Gates is gone before you draft in round 4, you simply slide right into your #1 WR.

Any way you cut it, going 3RBs in a row is a safe plan this year given the assumptions herein.

Further, this study does not suggest you can't win other ways. You certainly can. In addition, you always need to be flexible while drafting. If Manning somehow drops to you in the 3rd round, naturally that might override a predetermined drafting sequence that suggested you draft an RB in the third round. 

Punch line? This analysis further reinforces the power of using pcDrafter and the Gold algorithm as it offers you a customized approach and it dynamically accounts for hundreds of factors as each and every player is selected off your draft board.


FINAL COMMENTS
Some are saying, “Sorry Greg. No way am I drafting a TE in the 4th round. TE’s just don’t score that many points. We don’t do it that way in my league.”

To this, I’ll leave you with an example.

Let’s say we knew with 100% certainty the top NFL players would score as follows…

QB-1 103
QB-2 99
QB-3 99
QB-4 98
QB-5 98
--- 

RB-1 92
RB-2 90
RB-3 90
RB-4 89
RB-5 89
--- 

TE-1 45
TE-2 22
TE-3 19
TE-4 13
TE-5 12
--- 

WR-1 72
WR-2 71
WR-3 70
WR-4 69
WR-5 68
--- 

WHO’S THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ABOVE?
Easy answer, it’s TE-1, even with him being a lower point scorer than all of the QBs, RBs and WRs!

Why?

Because if you get TE-1 and any of the other QBs and RBs above you will have the highest scoring TEAM -- even higher than QB1+RB1+TE2+WR1.

TE1+QB5+RB5+WR5 > QB1+RB1+TE2+WR1

Simply stated, in the above scenario, if you have TE-1 you basically can’t lose and yet TE-1 is far from the highest scoring player. 

Its just math!