Background
This is the final article in a series on player performance and age. Throughout this series I have identified several fact-based trends linking age and performance to running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends.

My research dataset was large and consisted of NFL player statistics from 1990 to 2005.

Below we’ll look at current player performance and identify some potential breakout and sleeper players for this year, gleaning insights learned from the age-performance analysis.

If you have not read any of the previous articles, don’t worry. I will recap the findings as we go through my predictions for each position. Of course, if you want to review the detailed analysis, please go back and read the previous articles.

So without further ado, let’s look at how history might be repeated in 2006. We’ll start with the position most fantasy players target with the early selections in their draft.

Running Backs
In our study of running backs, we saw that 5th and 6th year RBs tend to hit their career high in terms of points scored. For 2006, running backs that fit these criteria are listed below. In addition, I used our historical averages to estimate their possible points for 2006. (I also applied some logic to this list by removing players that have either retired, suffered injuries, or were released.)

Here are the 5th year running backs that could be primed for big seasons in 2006.



Note: as we go to press, the extent of Clinton Portis’ shoulder problem is unclear.

Here are the 6th year running backs that could have their last big year before declining.



We also saw that that running backs entering their 7th season often take a dramatic hit in their scoring. The group of running backs below are entering their 7th season.



Using our example above, Shaun Alexander’s value may never be higher. Considering the HUGE return you could probably get right now in a Keeper League trade, it might be worth exploring those possibilities. This is not to say that you should simply give Alexander away, as even a 20% decrease in his numbers would be a great year for most other players. But trading him is not as laughable as many other owners may think, assuming you can get a boatload of talent in return. It is this additional knowledge that keeps your team one step ahead.

Note that some running backs who entered their 6th year appear to have already hit this wall a year early, such as Kevan Barlow, Deuce McAllister, Travis Henry, and Michael Bennett.

Also note that there are a group of running backs that have continued to excel past their 7th year. These running backs are listed below, with the historical data applied to their 2005 numbers to project what their scoring for 2006 would be if they followed the average.



Surprisingly, 1997 seems to have been a good year for durable backs.

If you wanted to look on the positive side for these players, the following running backs from this age groups have already appeared to have declined significantly (Fred Taylor, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk) so therefore these four backs might be able to outperform history.

Finally, if we look at the rookies who played a significant role last year, the following players seem to be heading for an improvement this season.



Having the fourth pick in one of my drafts, the above data does appear to lead me into selecting Clinton Portis (if healthy) over Tiki Barber. I might even be tempted to take one of the top 2nd year players, who have a much better chance of exceeding their projections than the older players listed in with Tiki Barber above.

Naturally, a player’s age and prior year performance are only two factors to consider when projecting forward.

Of course, there are other variables such as player movement, offensive coordinators and offensive scheme, projected workload, quarterback changes, durability, player consistency and more.

In turn, that’s exactly what the 4for4.com cheat sheets and player projections are for as they are the bottom line on where a player ranks for the coming season.

Also, be sure to see the 4for4.com keeper-league cheat sheets. As you might expect, they fully leverage a suite of fact-based analysis including age-performance measures.

Wide Receivers
Unlike running backs, that show significant declines in certain years, wide receivers show a tendency to score more consistently over time. For wide receivers, the two years I want to concentrate on are the 2nd year and the 5th year. The 2nd year is the year when most quality wide receivers show the ability to perform at a high level. The 5th year is the year when most wide receivers reach the pinnacle of their scoring.

In terms of 5th year wide receivers, there are some significant names on this list, as you can see below.



The list below shows the rookie wide receivers from last year that stand the best chance to continue their breakthrough this season, based on the number of receptions they had as a rookie compared to historical trends.



Looking at this list, I could potentially see all the players reaching a 120-point level. That does not make them early selections in your draft, but these are players to watch as your draft progresses. I would be sure to grab some of these players “on the cheap” rather than overpaying for more well-established veterans that run the risk of not living up to their pricey draft spot.

Quarterbacks
Honestly, there isn’t as much to say about quarterbacks. Once a quarterback establishes himself (often in year-2), their career performances will trend up but often stay relatively close to their benchmark number.

Also worth noting, less than 15% of all quarterbacks peak before the age of 25. In fact, almost 35% of all QBs have their best statistical season after their 30th birthday. History suggests if a QB can put up decent numbers while in his mid-twenties, things will trend up and only get better. The data shows most top-tier QBs reach their prime between 27 and 33. Over a 3-year planning horizon, advanced age generally isn’t that much of a factor in projecting Fantasy point decline, unless the QB has already reached age 36.

So with this in mind, it pays to select a quarterback that has already proven himself and don’t expect a huge upside variation in numbers - if you do, your going against the odds.

Still, we all know expectations do exist – think Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper in 2004.

Tight Ends
Our study of tight ends showed that the tight end position had a relatively short life span for top performers compared to other positions, even running back. Tight ends showed a spike in their 2nd year, and the top-scoring season in their 4th year.

As for second year tight ends with potential, there are only two that meet our minimum criteria of 40 catches that would seem to be worthy of consideration.



However, when we look at 4th year tight ends, there are some very interesting names in this list.



It might be a bit much to expect Gates to exceed last year’s statistics by 23 points with a new quarterback, but historical trends indicate that this group as a whole will improve by a double-digit percentage.

Conclusion
Will all these age-performance projected numbers match? Of course not.

However, history continues to repeat itself, and historical trending occurs for a reason. While individual performances will vary either above or below the historical averages, the trends are an important source of information that you can use to your advantage. Often times, the later round selections in your draft offer players that seem to be equal when looking at their face value. In times like these, why not take advantage of the trends and look for players who are on the upside of their careers, rather than on the downside.

This is especially true for those of you who participate in dynasty leagues. However, you still need to balance current and future performance to make sure you also take players that can perform this year. Any good dynasty team will have a solid mix of players that will help you win now, and young players that will grow into your future starters. In this case, these trends can also help you determining when to trade a player before their value starts to drop, and help identify which players are worth targeting in a trade.

Again, in closing, lets point out a player’s age and prior year performance make up only two of many variables to consider when projecting forward. In turn, that’s exactly what the 4for4.com cheat sheets and player projections are for as they are the bottom line on where a player ranks for the coming season.

For more factors used in the 4for4.com forecasting process, be sure to check out:

Offensive System- http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/system.php
General Consensus - http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/consensus.php
Consistency Factor - http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/consistency.php
Prior Year - http://www.4for4.com/pre06/cs-factors/lastyear.php

If you have any questions or comments about this series of articles, I’d love to hear from you. Feel free to contact me at brandie@pcdrafter.com