Do you ever show up for your draft and it seems like everybody in the room is going by the same ranking list and cheatsheet, or even worse different cheat sheets, but they all look pretty much alike? Playing it safe on draft day will get you to the middle of the pack in your league standings, but if you want to bring home the trophy you’re gonna have to take some calculated risks and hope that more of them than not pay off. Breaking from the conventional wisdom, several on staff find players that look under and overvalued.


ADP Overvalued

Frank Gore
by Chris Kucharski
Frank Gore might have a bright future in the NFL and it could start this season. But there are some problems with selecting him high in your draft. The most important question: Will he be the starter? At this point, there is no definitive answer.

Even though new 49ers offensive coordinator Norv Turner would prefer a running game based on power, which fits Gore's style, Kevan Barlow still is the favorite to win the starting job. Head coach Mike Nolan has stated the job is still wide open, but early in camp Barlow has taken most of the snaps with the first team offense.

The reason Barlow should get the nod initially is because he has shown he can get the job done in the NFL. He had a 1,000-yard season in 2003, but struggled with inconsistency and injuries the past two seasons. But Barlow also came to camp this season with more motivation, probably because of the threat of Gore taking over the starting position. Barlow is down 10 pounds from last season, which will make him quicker. He also realizes this might be his only chance to remain a major component of the 49ers offense. If Gore wins the job coming out of camp, that could be it for Barlow.

Another factor against Gore - the Niners offense will struggle again with Alex Smith at quarterback. If they are behind early in games, it could mean the running game will disappear.

This is one of those situations where the young player will have to beat out the veteran. Again, since the starting tailback might not be selected until late August, you might end up drafting a backup running back too early in your draft.

At this point in the draft, there won't be many starting running backs still left on the board, but Barlow (ADP 109) might be one of them. If your draft is late in the summer, you might have the luxury of knowing who Nolan gives the nod too. Otherwise, Gore or even Barlow could be risky.


Marc Bulger
by Dale Lolley
It's usually difficult to look at the general consensus of where a player is getting picked in drafts and say that a player is overrated. In the case of Rams quarterback Marc Bulger, however, it is not.

The general consensus says that Bulger should be the sixth quarterback taken in a draft.

I'm not buying that for a second.

First of all, Mike Martz has taken his greatest show on turf offense and shuffled off to Detroit.

Secondly, Bulger is playing behind a sub-par offensive line and has shown a history of getting hurt.

In fact, Bulger is more falacy than fact. He's never played a full 16-game season and his career-high in touchdown passes is 22. I don't see either of those things changing this season.


Rudi Johnson
by Tony Finn
2004 super sleeper Rudi Johnson now overvalued? Hear me out.

After a slow start last season, Johnson certainly awarded his ownership with a solid fantasy bottom line. In fact, since Corey Dillon left for New England, Johnson has put up almost identical numbers, 1450 yards and 12 touchdowns in each of the last two campaigns. Johnson did his 2005 damage in two less starts, and played most of the season with a knee injury.

Michigan standout Chris Perry has struggled through injuries in his short NFL tenure. Perry won’t replace Rudi Johnson anytime soon; in fact his durability issues may prevent him from ever being a featured back in the league. But his 51 receptions are touches that take Johnson out of the traditional running back elite and rate him as a second-rounder. His 174 total yards receiving combined over the last two years doesn’t even come close to the true fantasy threats in the league. In fact his receiving totals don’t rate with most of the second or third-tier backs in the league. So why draft Johnson in the first round?

Honestly, Johnson’s lack of lateral movement and pure speed classifies him more as a plodder. Actually, Perry is the faster and more accomplished receiver and as long as he’s healthy he will take touches away from Johnson. Perry averaged close to 9 touches per game last year, albeit limited to a half season due to an ankle injury, but healthy Perry takes at minimum 5-7 treats out of Rudi’s fantasy candy bowl.

While most league managers are drafting Perry as a number-one option, his lack of big play speed along with how he’s used in the Bengals’ offense doesn’t offer him anything more than second round draft day status, especially in leagues that reward points per reception.


Dominic Rhodes
by DJ Boyer
The Colts are going into the season with a 50/50 split on the running back carries between Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. As the season progresses I expect to see more and more of Addai as Rhodes should see his carries dwindle. There is already talk of having Addai end up with more carries right off of the bat and having Rhodes serve as the teams third down back. Rhodes is a more accomplished receiver and is better with blocking assignments than rookie Addai. This could cement Rhodes role as a third down back. Addai offers more explosiveness and offers more value in Dynasty or Keeper Leagues. Further I give the edge to Addai in a re-draft scenario and feel he will end up with more carries than Rhodes.


Thomas Jones
by DJ Boyer
Things haven’t gone well recently for Thomas Jones and one wonders just how long he will be a Bear. Jones missed all of the “voluntary” workouts held by the team in the off-season and when he reported to camp he found out he was no longer #1 on the depth chart. The Bears drafted Texas running back Cedric Benson with their first round pick a year ago and the thought was to get him involved with the offense as the primary back this year. Jones also has a hamstring problem that has kept him out of action since camp began and strangely enough Benson is now also hurt. Talk has not gone back to Thomas Jones and how quickly he can recover but rather it has now shifted to the other running back in the mix Adrian Peterson. This is a clear sign that right now Jones is not in the long term plans for the Bears. After his 1,335-yard rushing season there may be a market for him, especially when other teams start to cope with injuries sustained during the exhibition season.


Curtis Martin
by Kevin Rosebrook
Two years ago, Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing with 1,697 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. Curtis was 31 at the time, which is an age where nobody expects a running back to lead the league in anything. Last year, in twelve games, his numbers dropped to 735 yards rushing and 5 total touchdowns. This year, at age 33, his best years are behind him for sure, the question is, what does he have left?

After having knee surgery in December, no one can be quite sure what to expect from Martin. Currently he’s on the Jet’s Physically Unable to Perform (PUP list. Martin states he can return at any time. However, when asked, Martin does not talk about a timetable.

By looking at the Average Draft Position (ADP), where Curtis comes in at #65 overall, and the 31st running back taken, it seems as if some fantasy owners are holding out hope that he may just have a little bit left in the tank. I guess it depends on what you want to do with that 65th pick.

He’s not going to be your starter, that’s a given. Does he have any trade value down the road? I don’t think so. We just don’t know how much he’ll play, in fact, we don’t know if he’ll play at all. This leads me to believe that there are better options out there.

I definitely like Derrick Mason at wide receiver for the Ravens in the 6th round. Further, Joey Galloway and Lee Evans may also be on your board in the 6th round as well. Daunte Culpepper or Curtis Martin? It’s a slam dunk - I’d take Daunte Culpepper with the Dolphins, if you need a QB at that time. Come round six, if you’re in desperate need of a RB, even overvalued Frank Gore and Dominic Rhodes look better. At least you know they’ll play, and I think their upsides are higher. Martin’s a classic, and I’d like to see him play well this season, I just wouldn’t take him in the draft, unless I could get him after the 8th round.


Chris Cooley
by DJ Boyer
Cooley is coming off a monster season where he caught 71 passes for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns. While Cooley still figures to be an asset to the offense his production will probably slip and owners will end up drafting him too high in their leagues based off of last years numbers. The additions of Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd give the Redskins some explosive options at wide receiver and there are only so many balls to go around. Combine that with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders running the ball as often as he can and you start to see how Cooley will see a slip in production.



ADP Bargains

Jon Kitna
by Dale Lolley
For at least one of the same reasons I don't like St. Louis' Marc Bulger (overvalued) this season, I do like Detroit's Jon Kitna (undervalued).

With Mike Martz calling the plays in Detroit this season, Jon Kitna should put up some nice numbers.

I know, it's John Kitna. But remember, when he started in Cincinnati in 2003, he threw for more than 3,500 yard and 26 touchdowns. Right now, his ADP is just above 150. That's way too low.

Roy Williams could have a breakout season this year, much like Chad Johnson did with Kitna throwing him the ball. Kitna not only could be a great fantasy backup this season, he could end up being your starter.


DeShaun Foster
by Tony Finn
Every year a running back is overlooked for being either too old or having a reputation for being soft and injury prone; Foster falls into the latter container. Two years ago Curtis Martin was coming off a 2003 season that saw him score but two touchdowns. The 32-year old running back was a mid-round flier that year and yet his performance that year landed some managers a fantasy championship. An act that earned him the league rushing title and a performance jump from 2 to 12 touchdowns.

Over the last two seasons Jamal Lewis has played through nagging injuries and off season issues that have seen his touchdown total drop from 14 in ’03 to just 3 last season. The still young back is considered an injury risk and a plodder, much in same framework as a Rudi Johnson. The difference between Lewis and Johnson is game breaking speed.

DeShaun Foster not only has speed, he has game breaking stab-a-knife in the heart of the opponent gas. On more than one occasion this season the Panther first round pick DeAngelo Williams is actually being selected before his senior and the team starter - Foster.

Why?

Because in real life, as in fantasy - owners like new and shinny ornaments. Sure, Williams is a talented running back with speed, and yes he owns an NCAA rushing title. But he’s a rookie that has yet to take an NFL snap and being selected before Foster is the type of draft strategy that makes the experienced fantasy owner smile.

This type of draft choice is called a reach. I define reach as “Hoping a player will perform to a specific level based on theory, ability and potential.” Reaches, like river-card outs in a Texas Hold’em game will get you ‘broke”, fantasy broke in this case.

Darin Gantt of the Charlotte Observer told me this summer, “It's Foster’s [starting RB role] until he gets hurt. Offensive coordinator Dan Henning loves him, and so does head Coach John Fox. If he stays well, then DeAngelo Williams is a change-of-pace back and Eric Shelton might get some obligatory short-yardage work.”

Foster is currently healthy, so quips like “until he gets hurt”, or “when he gets hurt” makes the selection of Williams before Foster questionable.

Recall, Foster actually made injury progress last year playing in all 16 games, and this year enters camp healthy and ready to play in all 16 regular season contests.

While many fantasy owners have given up hope that Foster can produce for a full season, let's ask the question, "What if he does stay well for a full season, and if this hypothetical comes to fruition. What kind of season ending numbers could he have?" Expecting a healthy Foster to put up number that represent typical Carolina tailback offerings, i.e. 350 touches, 1800 all-purpose yards, and double digit touchdowns isn't a reach, it‘s the goal that head coach John Fox has for his workhorse.

Foster will wear the tag of featured back for the first time in his career and the team will cater to his talents. The UCLA grad can run between the tackles, on the edge and has the ability and vision to be successful. He offers the Panthers offense a dual threat with home run potential every time he touches the ball. Foster is also is a terrific receiver making him a dangerous weapon in down and distance situations. As an ADP fourth and fifth rounder in May to July Mocks - he’s a Brinks truck steal.


Warrick Dunn
by DJ Boyer
Why wouldn’t Warrick Dunn be a bargain? Year in and year out we hear about how the running duties will be transitioned from Warrick Dunn to TJ Duckett and at the end of every year Dunn has twice as many carries and the cycle starts all over again heading into the next campaign. Now it looks like Duckett may be on his way out of town and 3rd round pick Jerious Norwood is the next one to be groomed as Dunn’s replacement. Dunn still has a few years left in the tank and is coming off a year where he rushed for a career high 1,416 yards. With Duckett looking like he will be removed from the picture it also allows for Dunn to score more touchdowns and not let him do all the hard work while Duckett gets the credit for the 1 and 2 yard plunges into the end zone.


Laveranues Coles
by DJ Boyer
Coles is coming off a year where he had only 845 yards receiving, his lowest total since 2001. Coles also spent most of last year playing in an anemic offense and playing through a number of injuries that have hampered his recent performance. Now with a new coaching staff and direction on offense, the Jets are looking to rebound which should mean more receptions and yardage for Coles as there are questions at virtually every other receiving position on the field for New York.

Justin McCareins has yet to live up to his potential and has suffered through a number of injuries. The tight end position is still one that is not utilized an awful lot so the running backs and Coles look to get the majority of the catches. With the Jets struggling last year and the #1 quarterback still up in the air Coles should slip on a number of draft boards but he has enough talent to produce no matter who is throwing him the ball.