4for4 Forecast Accuracy - Week 17

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble. As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things including...



1) Andre Roberts 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

2) Matt Ryan would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 165 yards below average)

3) Roddy White 76 receiving yards (actual 69)

4) Torrey Smith 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

5) Scott Chandler 31 receiving yards (actual 29)

6) DeAngelo Williams 49 rushing yards (actual 53)

7) Jerome Simpson 50 receiving yards (actual 54)

8) Evan Moore 38 receiving yards (actual 39)

9) Tony Romo projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

10) Dez Bryant 69 receiving yards (actual 70)

11) Donald Driver 51 receiving yards (actual 52)

12) Maurice Jones-Drew would rush for 100+ yards (actual 169)

13) Blaine Gabbert would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 92)

14) Dwayne Bowe 9.1 fantasy points (actual 9.3)

15) Pierre Thomas 29 rushing yards (actual 30)

16) Darren Sproles 28 receiving yards (actual 29)

17) Devery Henderson 5.5 fantasy points (actual 5.7)

18) Hakeem Nicks 77 receiving yards (actual 76)

19) Mark Sanchez 217 passing yards (actual 207)

20) Jason Avant 4.2 fantasy points (actual 4.2)

21) DeSean Jackson 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

22) Ben Roethlisberger 213 passing yards (actual 221)

23) Hines Ward 4.8 receptions (actual = 5)

24) Marshawn Lynch 91 rushing yards (actual 86)

25) Tarvaris Jackson 227 passing yards (actual 222)

26) Golden Tate 47 receiving yards (actual 46)

27) Doug Baldwin 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

28) Alex Smith projected pass TD 1.0 (actual 1)

29) Steven Jackson 97 total yards (actual 91 yards)

30) Kellen Winslow 54 receiving yards (actual 56)

31) Chris Johnson 10.9 fantasy points (actual 11.0)

32) Nate Washington 3.8 receptions (actual = 4)




Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week. We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

Quarterbacks with a
4for4 projected Fantasy
Impact Rating of:

Last Week

For the Year

 Over Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Pass Yards Pass TDs
A-Game 289 2.3 302 2.3 257 1.8
B-Game 283 2.3 249 1.5 213 1.2
C-Game 217 1.2 213 1.1 174 0.9



Running Backs with a
4for4 projected Fantasy
Impact Rating of:

Last Week

For the Year

 Over Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
A-Game 102 0.5 108 0.7 112 0.8
B-Game 83 0.1 86 0.5 90 0.5
C-Game 48 0.4 41 0.2 31 0.2



Wide Receivers with a
4for4 projected Fantasy
Impact Rating of:

Last Week

For the Year

 Over Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
A-Game 119 0.8 81 0.6 85 0.6
B-Game 67 0.5 64 0.4 62 0.4
C-Game 34 0.1 41 0.2 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.