Do Patterns Exist Within a Typical NFL Season?
by Greg Alan

Do teams tend to rush or pass more as the season progresses? Does the offense or defense typically have an advantage early in the season? Do any patterns really exist and which are statistically significant?

Opinion and gut feel might tell us one thing. But, I wanted some cold hard facts. So, we powered up our systems and let the computer crunch some numbers. In this analysis we examine all the NFL regular season games played from 2001 to 2003.

To keep this analysis focused we examined: 

Team Passing Yards	Team Rushing Yards	Team Total Yards
Team Passing TDs	Team Rushing TDs	Team Total TDs

Teams Generally Gain More Rushing Yards Later in the Season?

This is true! Over the first three weeks of the year, the typical NFL team averages 107 rushing yards. Over the last three, they average 121 per game. Performing a statistical test over the entire season show this trend is statistically significant. And, it seems rather intuitive. Bad weather and conservative play calling late in the year are factors. 

For Fantasy Managers, this tells me you better have some good RBs on your roster come your late season fantasy playoffs. For all those playing tournament-style, in the FFTOC, this tells me if you can save some stud RBs for late in the year, you might just get some extra mileage and reap the rewards.

Rush Yards Per Team  W1    102.4 W2    111.4 W3    107.5 W4    116.4 W5    114.4 W6    115.6 W7    120.0 W8    114.8 W9    119.7 W10  109.6 W11  113.3 W12  117.6 W13  115.6 W14  117.3 W15  124.4 W16  115.0 W17  124.1

Finding #2: Rushing TDs are harder to come by early in the season. 

Over the first three weeks, NFL teams average 0.74 rushing TDs per game. Over the last three weeks of the season, they average 0.85 TDs. While we see a difference at the very begin and end of the season, this trend is not statistically significant over the entire season. 

Finding #3: Passing Stats trend lower as the year progresses. 

This finding borders on being statistically significant, but as an overall truth, has little practical value other than to disprove any myths. The more important take here is watch for weather conditions come November and December. 

Keep in mind what Tom Bass, the Bucs and Bengals former Defensive Coordinator, told us about weather, “Games played outside in the cold put tremendous pressure on warm weather teams. Players from these teams have a great deal of trouble performing in adverse weather conditions. It affects every part of the game but more the offense and the kicking game. Be weary of Florida, Arizona, California or dome teams who end up playing in cold snowy conditions. Coaches have to drive these players out of the warm dressing rooms onto the field and usually they have on so much extra clothing, they cannot move in a normal fashion. Extreme cold weather accompanied with ice, sleet, rain or wind at kickoff will change the game plan dramatically. When I was coaching with the Bengals, we played a game in Buffalo where neither team could punt when going into the sleet and wind. Our game plan changed dramatically that Sunday. In really bad weather most teams will go into a "let the other guy make the mistake" mode and will try to feature more of a running game coupled with select short passes. If your quarterback comes from a city in the north and is at home playing in the cold then the game plan may be cut down but will still feature all phases of the normal attack.” 

Passing TDs per Team W1    1.4 W2    1.2 W3    1.3 W4    1.3 W5    1.4 W6    1.3 W7    1.3 W8    1.3 W9    1.3 W10  1.5 W11  1.2 W12  1.3 W13  1.3 W14  1.2 W15  1.2 W16  1.4 W17  1.1

Passing Yards per Team W1    222.8 W2    223.1 W3    214.3 W4    226.7 W5    240.2 W6    225.3 W7    222.5 W8    212.6 W9    212.3 W10  234.1 W11  222.7 W12  225.4 W13  219.6 W14  212.4 W15  217.5 W16  221.1 W17  203.3

Finding #4: Discount statements like the offense/defense has a huge advantage early in the season. 

While very logical arguments can be made for why the defense has a big advantage in the early part of the season, the data just doesn’t support it. Inspection of the below tables shows only a slight advantage for the defense in the first three weeks of the season.

Total TDs per Team W1 2.1 W2 2.0 W3 2.1 W4 2.2 W5 2.4 W6 2.0 W7 2.2 W8 2.1 W9 2.0 W10 2.3 W11 2.1 W12 2.2 W13 2.2 W14 2.1 W15 2.2 W16 2.2 W17 2.0

Total Yards per Team W1 325 W2 335 W3 322 W4 343 W5 355 W6 341 W7 343 W8 327 W9 332 W10 343 W11 336 W12 343 W13 335 W14 330 W15 342 W16 336 W17 327