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Fantasy Strategy
Two teams are going to the Super Bowl.
That much we know. But which two?
Below we rank all possible Super Bowl Matchups. We rank the matchups based on likelihood
of occurrence.
This analysis is intended to give you an early read on Fantasy Playoff Value.
For many fantasy league formats, the more playoff games a player plays in, the
higher his NFL Playoff Fantasy Value.
Note: In most years this type of
analysis has done rather well at predicting the Super Bowl teams. But, it's never
easy and far from perfect.
• Last season was an outlier with the Packers making the Super Bowl from the 6th seed, the Seahawks knocking off the Saints in one of the biggest upsets in playoff history, and the Jets beating a heavily favored Patriots team coming off a first round BYE. Still, this methodology predicted a Packers Steelers Super Bowl as the 13th most likely possibility.
• In 2010 this method nailed a Colts-Saints Super Bowl matchup.
• In 2005, it correctly predicted the Eagles-Patriots matchup.
• The year before, it had identified the Panthers-Patriots matchup as the 9th most likely occurrence.
Not bad considering Carolina was a significant underdog on the road against both
Philly and St. Louis that year.
• Also worth noting, in 2006 the analysis identified Seattle for the Super Bowl but missed on the Steelers. Still, the
SEA-PIT matchup was forecasted as the 11th most likely combo.
• In 2007, the process had the CHI-INDY Super Bowl as the 7th most likely matchup.
• In 2009 this method identified PIT as the most likely AFC team to reach the big dance.
Ranking the 2012 Super Bowl Matchup Possibilities
Most to Least Likely| NFC | AFC | Likelihood of Matchup | Odds of Occurring |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | NE | 31.0% | 2-to-1 |
| GB | BAL | 14.9% | 6-to-1 |
| GB | PIT | 11.8% | 7-to-1 |
| NO | NE | 8.0% | 12-to-1 |
| SF | NE | 6.5% | 14-to-1 |
| NO | BAL | 3.8% | 25-to-1 |
| SF | BAL | 3.1% | 31-to-1 |
| NO | PIT | 3.0% | 32-to-1 |
| GB | HOU | 2.5% | 39-to-1 |
| SF | PIT | 2.5% | 39-to-1 |
| NYG | NE | 2.0% | 49-to-1 |
| ATL | NE | 1.5% | 66-to-1 |
| GB | CIN | 1.2% | 80-to-1 |
| DET | NE | 1.0% | 99-to-1 |
| NYG | BAL | 1.0% | 103-to-1 |
| NYG | PIT | 0.8% | 131-to-1 |
| ATL | BAL | 0.7% | 138-to-1 |
| NO | HOU | 0.6% | 155-to-1 |
| GB | DEN | 0.6% | 160-to-1 |
| ATL | PIT | 0.6% | 174-to-1 |
| SF | HOU | 0.5% | 191-to-1 |
| DET | BAL | 0.5% | 207-to-1 |
| DET | PIT | 0.4% | 262-to-1 |
| NO | CIN | 0.3% | 312-to-1 |
| SF | CIN | 0.3% | 384-to-1 |
| NYG | HOU | 0.2% | 624-to-1 |
| NO | DEN | 0.2% | 624-to-1 |
| SF | DEN | 0.1% | 768-to-1 |
| ATL | HOU | 0.1% | 832-to-1 |
| NYG | CIN | 0.1% | 1249-to-1 |
| DET | HOU | 0.1% | 1249-to-1 |
| ATL | CIN | 0.1% | 1666-to-1 |
| DET | CIN | 0.0% | 2499-to-1 |
| NYG | DEN | 0.0% | 2499-to-1 |
| ATL | DEN | 0.0% | 3332-to-1 |
| DET | DEN | 0.0% | 4999-to-1 |