So Who's Motivated?
4for4.com Exclusiveby Josh Moore (12/29/09)
NFL Week #17 is often problematic for Fantasy Football. Some teams will be highly motivated this weekend, others not so.
Unlike past years, the NFL will not play on Saturday in week 17. Rather, all 32 teams will compete Sunday January 3rd, with no Monday Night action.
In 2006, we had 20 teams still in contention for the Super Bowl, the most ever with one week left in the season. Amazingly, 14 of 16 games had playoff implications in week 17.
In 2007 the pendulum swung in the other direction. Only four games had playoff implications in week 17.
In 2008, 11 of the final 16 games had possible playoff implications.
This year, 7 AFC teams are still in the mix for the final 2 playoff spots. In the NFC the picture is a bit clearer, with all 6 playoff teams decided. However, four teams are in the hunt for the #2 seed and a first round bye.
So who's motivated?
Baltimore Ravens - VERY MOTIVATED
The Baltimore Ravens play the Raiders in Oakland in an afternoon game. If the Ravens win, they clinch a Wild Card spot. If they lose, they are out. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers and will be highly motivated to lock up a playoff birth. Look for a lot of work out of Ray Rice against a bad Oakland run defense. Rice had 31 touches in week 16.
New York Jets - VERY MOTIVATED
If the Jets beat the Bengals, they clinch a Wild Card spot. If they lose, they are out. The Jets benefit for the second straight week in facing a team that doesn't have much to play for and may begin resting players. This game has been flexed into the Sunday Night game and will be a prime time matchup and the final game of the 2009 regular season.
Philadelphia Eagles - VERY MOTIVATED
The Eagles head to Dallas in a game that will decide the winner of the NFC East. Thanks to a Vikings loss on Monday Night Football, if the Eagles win they get the #2 seed and a first round BYE. The teams played last in week 9. Dallas came to Philadelphia and beat the Eagles in their own house 20-16. Neither team could establish much of a running game, and Romo spread the ball out to 7 different receivers. The Eagles contained Miles Austin for most of the night, but he got free for his only catch of the night, a 49 yard TD bomb late in the game to give the Cowboys the victory. Both teams will be highly motivated in this contest, with the Eagles looking to get a win and a week off.
Minnesota Vikings - VERY MOTIVATED
After losing 3 of their last 4 (all road games) including a Monday Night overtime loss to the Bears in week 16, the Vikings no longer control their own destiny to a #2 seed and a first round bye. The Vikings return home to face the Giants and must win and then get an Eagles loss at 4PM to secure the #2 seed.
Dallas Cowboys - VERY MOTIVATED
If the Cowboys beat the Eagles they will clinch the NFC East title and quiet the doubters of the Cowboys ability to win the big games late in the season. If the Vikings lose their 1PM game against the Giants, the Cowboys will also have a chance at the #2 seed and a first round BYE. They would need the help of a Packers win or tie over the Cardinals in another 4PM game.
Denver Broncos - VERY MOTIVATED
The Broncos need to win their 4PM game against the Cheifs to have a realistic chance at a Wild Card spot. If the Broncos win, they would then need one of the following:
• NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
• NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
• NYJ loss or tie + HOU win over NE
• BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
• DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU over NE win
If the Broncos lose, they still have a chance but would need a lot of help from one of the following scenarios:
• PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
• PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
• PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
• PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
• MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie
The Broncos play at 4PM, so the scenarios will be a bit simpler come kickoff, but with the Ravens and Jets playing at 4PM or later, the Broncos simply need a win and then see how things shake out.
Pittsburgh Steelers - MOTIVATED
To have any chance at a Wild Card spot, the Steelers need to beat the Dolphins at 1PM. They would then need help: (HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie) OR (HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie) OR (NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie).
Houston Texans - MOTIVATED
The Texans kick off at 1PM and need a win to have a chance at the Wild Card. They would then need a combination of 2 losses or ties from Baltimore, Denver, and the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MOTIVATED
The Jaguars play at 1PM against the Browns. The Jaguars have an outside shot at a Wild Card spot if they take care of business and then get 4 losses out of the Ravens, Jets, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos.
Dolphins - MOTIVATED
The Dophins still have a chance at the playoffs. They must beat the Steelers at 1PM and then hope for losses from the Jets, Ravens, Texans, and Jaguars.
New England Patriots - SLIGHTLY MOTIVATED
If the Patriots win their 1PM game against the Texans, they secure the #3 seed in the playoffs. Tom Brady is on the record saying that the Patriots should continue to play to win to keep their momentum rolling.
Arizona Cardinals - POSSIBLY MOTIVATED
The Cardinals have the NFC West wrapped up. The Cardinals have an outside shot at the #2 seed if the Vikings lose to the Giants at 1PM. The Cardinals would then need to beat an unmotivated Packers team and get help from the Cowboys (beating the Eagles).
Cincinnati Bengals - POSSIBLY MOTIVATED
Come kickoff, the Bengals could be playing to upgrade from a #4 seed to a #3 seed if the Patriots have lost their 1PM game with the Texans. The Bengals are preparing to approach it as a game they need to win, but coach Lewis has admited that they could change their plan depending on how the 1PM game shakes out.
Green Bay Packers - BARELY MOTIVATED
The Packers face the Cardinals at 4PM in what could likely be a preview of each teams first round playoff game. The only thing to be decided is if the Packers will be a #5 or #6 seed. Either way they will be on the road next week. If the Giants, Cardinals, and Eagles all win, the Packers would travel to Minnesota for a third game against Brett Favre and the Vikings.
San Diego Chargers - NOT MOTIVATED
The Chargers have clinched the #2 seed and a first round BYE and it's not even December anymore, so River's 18-0 streak in the month is not in Jeopardy. They have nothing to play for.
Indianapolis Colts - NOT MOTIVATED
After locking up the #1 seed in the AFC, the Colts are clearly not motivated. We saw them begin to rest starters in week 16. Expect even more rest in week 17.
New Orleans Saints - NOT MOTIVATED
The Saints have wrapped up the #1 seed in the NFC and have already started playing unmotivated football with an ugly loss to the Bucs in week 16.
Eliminated from the Playoffs
Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Bucs, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, NY Giants, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans.
