NFL Playoffs - Thoughts & Observations

Matchup Previews & Observations

PACKERS-CARDINALS
Last week the Packers crushed the Cardinals 33-7. When planning your fantasy lineups this week, don't put much stock in that result. If you recall, Arizona pulled a significant number of starters 15-minutes into the game while the Packers kept their studs in most of the contest.

If Arizona can protect Kurt Warner against the Packers blitz, the Cardinals offense should be able to move the chains. While Warner can't get out of his own way when under pressure, he still has a quick release and tremendous throwing accuracy - one of the best ways to beat an NFL blitz.

On defense, the Packers will need to keep safety help on Larry Fitzgerald and that should help the Cardinals running game. Keep in mind, last week not withstanding, the Cardinals running game has improved over the last 5-6 weeks thanks to the play of Beanie Wells.

On the flip side, the Packers are a tremendous sleeper team for fantasy managers. That translates into plenty of value picks for most fantasy formats including draft-n-hold and FFTOC-style playoff contests.

While many fans see a team's W-L record as the main measure of success, it turns out a much better leading indicator is a team's Net Points (scored - allowed). The Packers had the 2nd best Net Points in the NFL in 2009.

In turn, Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons with the likes of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and running back Ryan Grant. The Cardinals may not be able to keep up. All the while, Green Bay TE Jermichael Finley makes for a terrific fantasy value pick this weekend.

EAGLES-COWBOYS
The Cowboys Defense appears to have the Eagles number. Philadelphia has only managed one TD in the last two games against Dallas.

Making matters worse, the guys from South Philly have a number of issues on the offensive line right now and DeSean Jackson needs time to get deep.

Without Jackson's big-play threat, Donovan McNabb, LeSean McCoy, Leonard Weaver and Brian Westbrook (concussion) look rather average for a playoff team.

On the flip side, matchups show the Cowboys should be able to out muscle the Eagles up front. That plays well for Marion Barber and Felix Jones.

JETS-BENGALS
The Bengals are making a rare playoff appearance. Not helping matters, last week albeit in a somewhat insignificant contest for Cincinnati, the New York Jets shut them out 37-0.

So will some home cooking help Cincinnati this week?

It won't be easy as the Jets have the NFL's top rated defense and the league's #1 rushing attack as well.

The key to this contest will come down to turnovers. If QB Mark Sanchez can limit his mistakes, the Jets should be able to pull off the upset. That said, Sanchez lacks the experience to be an effective game manager and the Jets will still need some big plays to get the win. For his part, hit-or-miss wide receiver Braylon Edwards remains the Jets best downfield threat.

When the Bengals have the ball, look for them to lean on their excellent run blocking line and workhorse Cedric Benson. While this figures to be a low scoring game, Benson makes for a relatively strong play this week.

RAVENS-PATRIOTS
The Patriots will need to rise above the season-ending loss of Wes Welker (knee).

New England will need Julian Edelman to step up. From a fantasy perspective, Edelman could be a steal if all works out.

Still, that's a lot to ask for a rookie who is transitioning from quarterback to wide out.

After a great start to the 2009 season, the Ravens Joe Flacco has struggled lately. The good news is the Patriots secondary is very beatable.

Who's Streaking Hot?

Just like the NFL Playoffs, in fantasy football the playoffs are a whole new ballgame. Regular season production doesn't mean much if you can't put up in the playoffs. What matters is who's streaking hot right now and who can stay hot for four weeks. Let's take a look at some of the teams and players heading into playoffs on streaks.

• The hottest team in the NFL is the San Diego Chargers, winners of their last 11 games. After losing 4 of their first 5 games and falling well behind a 6-0 Broncos team, the Chargers won their next 11 to clinch the #2 seed in the AFC.
• The Dallas Cowboys have won 3 straight games. A month ago it looked unlikely that the Cowboys would be able to beat out the Giants for the last Wild Card spot. Last week the Cowboys convincingly grabbed the NFC East from the Eagles. The Cowboys defense allowed under 6 points per game during the streak, including a game against the Saints.
• The Green Bay Packers have won 7 of their last 8 games, including wins over two playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. The offense is one of the best in football, and the defense has been playing very well the second half of the season. Their only loss of the last 8 games came when the defense did not play well and allowed a 500 yard passing day to Ben Roethilsburger and the Steelers.
• The Philadelphia Eagles had won 6 straight games and controlled their own destiny for a first round BYE before a week 17 pounding by the Cowboys. The only good news is that the Eagles get a chance to redeem themselves against the same team, in the same stadium, one week later.
• The New York Jets won their last two games (both must wins) to get into the playoffs. The Jets are also on a lucky streak, with both teams (Colts & Bengals) being unmotivated in the contests.
• The Indianapolis Colts had been on the hottest streak of all time (23 straight regular season games), but decided to stop playing. The Colts have lost their last two, but obviously didn't care to win.
• The Baltimore Ravens have won 3 of 4. The wins came over the Lions, Bears, and Raiders. In week 16 the Ravens lost to the Steelers.
• On the other end of the spectrum we have the New Orleans Saints, losers of their last 3. Only the last game were the Saints conceiding the game. The Saints are the first team ever to win their first 13 games and then lose the next 3. Since 1980 5 teams have lost their last 3 games and made the playoffs. 3 out of the 5 won their first game. None of them won a second game.
• Cowboys WR Miles Austin has had 6 or more receptions in 6 straight games including at least 90 yards or a TD in each.
• Packers RB Ryan Grant has scored in each of his last 4 games. He has 6 rushing TDs over that span.
• Cardinals WR Larry Fizgerald has scored in 3 straight games - against the Lions, Rams, and Packers.
• Cardinals RB Beanie Wells only received 6 carries in week 17. In weeks 14, 15, and 16, in each game Wells received at least 15 carries, totalled over 90 yards, and scored a TD.
• Vikings QB Brett Favre has thrown for over 300 yards and at least two touchdowns in each of his last two games. In week 17 he threw 4 TDs.
• Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has scored in 4 straight games. He has 6 TDs in that span.
• Jets RB Shonn Greene has received at least 8 carries in 5 of his last 6 games, and at least 10 carries in 4 of his last 6 including 16 carries in week 16 and 13 carries in week 17.

Fantasy Playoff Thoughts

Indianapolis
All the talk around the Colts these days is tanking on their perfect season, but when you look at the AFC, the Colts are a pretty safe bet to at least get to the title game, and we already know they'll have the advantage of hosting. This team has too many vets, and some good playoff fantasy draft picks, to not show up when it counts and quickly forget about a lost undefeated season. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai should be among the higher drafted players. They seem headed to a first round matchup against the winner of the Jets and Bengals game.

San Diego
The Chargers enter has perhaps the hottest team in the AFC. The unfortunate part about drafting Charger players is a probable matchup with pesky New England for their first game. While they'll host it, the Pats obviously won't be a pushover. So, guys like Phillip Rivers, LT and Vincent Jackson could quite possibly only get you one game of points. I say draft with caution…

New England
The Patriots were dealt a big blow with the loss of Wes Welker, but look for rookie Julian Edelman to step right in and produce, making him a sneaky playoff draft pick that many may shy away from or forget about. Tom Brady is enough reason to believe this team can go very far and he's backed by a three-headed monster running game. Brady is a nice fantasy pick because I think he's got potential to go at least three games, which of course gets him through the AFC title game, win or lose. The running backs are always a risk with Lawrence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk all getting involved, but Maroney has emerged as the lead guy this season. This team should get you at least two games.

Cincy
The Bengals ended up with a division title and a four seed, a surprise to many people as they beat out the former champion Steelers, and even those who picked Baltimore. Unfortunately, Cincy draws a rematch from last week with the Jets. New York's defense is one of the best in the league and Darrelle Revis' ability to shut down Chad Ochocinco takes away a huge passing threat that leaves few other options for Carson Palmer. I'd stay away from all Bengals in your playoff draft…

New York
Even if you're not a Jets fan, there is a lot to love about this team. It starts with their head coach. A chip off the old block, Rex Ryan is a lot like his dad, Buddy. How about another son of a former coach in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer? With a shutdown corner in Revis and a top-notch defense overall, this team is poised for a first-round upset and a trip to Indy. As a result, Jet players make sneaky low-end picks, especially Thomas Jones, who should get you two games worth of points. Shonn Greene could be a real nice, late pick to fill out your roster as well.

Baltimore
The Ravens enter as a six-seed and have the task of traveling to New England for their first-round matchup. By now you know I think the Pats will pull this one out so I think there's a real risk taking any Baltimore players. But Ray Rice is certainly worth picking and taking a chance on.

New Orleans
The once-unbeatable Saints certainly look beatable as of late. But, they end up with home field advantage and very well could get the winner of Green Bay and Arizona. Either way, Saint players obviously make good picks, and, no matter who the opponent is, guys like Drew Brees, Robert Meachem and Marques Colston are top-notch selections. I'm still a little concerned about their three-man RB committee (Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush), but all get enough touches and in fantasy playoffs it's all about games played.

Minnesota
The Vikes back into the number-two seed, but they'll certainly take a week off and a guaranteed home game to open their playoffs not matter how it works out. They seem to have things straightened out beating up on a Giants team that quit a few weeks ago to close out the season. It looks like Minny will host the Cowboys, assuming Dallas continues its dominance over the Eagles in the first round. It won't be an easy matchup, but the dome is a tough place to play and Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and company could end up getting you 2-3 games worth of points.

Dallas
The Cowboys are perhaps the hottest team entering the NFC playoffs. Dallas was impressive beating out the Eagles last week, but face the Birds again to open the playoffs. I think the winner of this game could end up going to the NFC title game and Dallas sure has an apparent advantage. While the 'Boys are safe picks, stacking up on them could end up giving you a fantasy playoff title. While they probably won't get picked early, loading up on guys like Romo, Barber, Austin and Witten could make for a nice team. Patrick Crayton could be a very nice late, forgotten pick to round out your roster as well.

Arizona
The Cards will be involved in one of three rematches from Week 17 in the NFL when they host Green Bay. This should be a high scoring game and the key, obviously, will be to get the winner and get at least two games out of these players. The winner of this contest most likely goes to New Orleans and will be primed for an upset to get to the NFC title game and get you a third contest worth of points. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are the obvious studs, with Anquan Boldin and Chris Wells close behind. I like the Cards to pull this one out at home.

Green Bay
The Packers get a tough task of going to Arizona to open their playoff schedule. The Arizona defense has struggled as of late, especially against the run, making Ryan Grant a tempting pick. So, this will be an interesting matchup that could result in a lot of points. While I think Arizona will pull this out, Packers are surely worth picking in your draft, at least to take a chance on, with the possibility of getting you two games. I wouldn't live and die by the players in this contest, but if you do and get it right, you'll be looking good.

Philly
Just one week ago, the Eagles were the talk of the NFC but laying an egg at Dallas last week cost them the NFC East and a number-two seed, so now they are seeded sixth. It very well may have cost them a trip to the Super Bowl because they'll now need to now win three games on the road - not an easy task - if they want to get there. Despite being dominated by Dallas twice this year, don't count this team out, but the odds are certainly against them. Taking Eagles later in your draft could leave you with a very nice surprise once the opening round is over. If the Birds can pull this out, they have a chance to go to New Orleans and beat a struggling Saints team, but they're not a safe bet overall to load up on in your d

Post-Season Observations

The team in the NFC that a lot of people may be overlooking is Green Bay. The Saints have made headlines by losing three in a row. Minnesota is in the news because of Brett Favre. Dallas always generates a buzz, even more so this year with people speculating on the future of Wade Phillips and the fact that the Cowboys didn't fade in December. Philadelphia can't stay consistent. Arizona's the defending NFC champions. Green Bay has gone 7-1 since a humiliating loss in week nine to Tampa Bay, and the Packers possess plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball.

You think Aaron Rodgers is going to be phased by the playoffs after replacing Favre? Not going to happen. Ryan Grant is a dependable running back and Rodgers has all kinds of targets from veteran Donald Driver to fast-rising Jermichael Finley. Charles Woodson and rookie Clay Matthews give the Packers a pair of impact players on defense and Nick Collins, A.J. Hawk, and Johnny Jolly are also capable of making big plays. Of all the teams playing on opening weekend, the Packers might have the best chance of going on a run.

Dallas and Philadelphia can be dangerous, but they can also be pitiful. The Jets are lucky to even be in the playoffs. Cincinnati looks like a team that at best will win one game. The Patriots are a defiant organization, but they are going to miss Wes Welker more than they realize. I'm not convinced Baltimore has enough of a passing game to make it big even though Joe Flacco has made strides in his second season. And the odds of Arizona recreating last year's magic are slim. Packer players could pay nice dividends for owners participating in fantasy football during the NFL Playoffs.

Many times in the past decade the AFC's top seed hasn't made it to the Super Bowl. Does that spell trouble for the Indianapolis Colts? Possibly, considering Indianapolis was the number one seed back in 2005 but were upset at home by Pittsburgh. Although the Colts didn't sacrifice a perfect season back then, they rested players, looked rusty, and the only reason they had a chance to draw even with the Steelers late in the game was due to a horrible call. If New England survives the Ravens, they certainly won't be scared of the Colts, and San Diego has proven in the past that they can go into Peyton's place and win. We don't know how guys like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are going to fare in the playoffs. I still think the Colts are the favorite in the AFC, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Chargers end up winning the conference. One of these years, Philip Rivers is going to the take the Chargers to the Super Bowl, and it might be this year.

Brady and the Patriots this Postseason

As we head into another NFL playoff season, we also enter another decade. Arguably one of the most successful teams of the last decade is the three-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. And although some would like to forget it, there is their most recent fourth Bowl appearance of the decade - the super loss to the New York Giants - after the Patriots' perfect 2007 regular season.

Adding to the mystique of the team is head coach Bill Belichick. He has had obvious success and has been praised for his leadership and strategies. Yet at the same time the media might categorize his demeanor at press conferences as aloof or ambiguous. Needless to say the Patriots have been both glorified and vilified.

Sunday these same Patriots square off against the Baltimore Ravens. Many of the prognosticators are leaning toward the young and hungry Ravens to advance. One reason for leaning toward the Ravens may be the loss of the Patriots' leading receiver this year, Wes Welker. Another reason may be the conflicting reports about Tom Brady's injury status regarding three broken ribs.

Yet if the past decade has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected. Particularly when the Patriots are involved.

The Drew Brees-led Saints, the Brett Favre-led Vikings, and the conference rival Peyton Manning-led Colts stole most of the media spotlight during the 2009 season. Stealthily, Brady has compiled 4398 passing yards this season, which is the second-best season in his career. This season's 96.2 passer rating is also second best in his career, as is the 28 passing touchdowns.

Only Peyton Manning had a better season statistically in the AFC than Brady. Moreover Tom Brady is a dominating 14-3 in post-season games. Equally as dominating is that the Patriots are undefeated at home this season, which is where they will host the Ravens on Sunday.

Wes Welker's contributions at receiver will be lost. Yet in the last decade six different wideouts have led the Patriots in receiving yards, including Reche Caldwell (2006) and David Givens (2004). The point is history has shown that Belichick, Brady and the Patriots will adjust. And adjust well enough to win. It would not be surprising if a seldom-used player contributed immediately on Sunday.

After all, isn't that how Brady himself was thrust into the limelight a decade ago?