RBBC Watch: Delayed Gratification
September 4, 2006
"With all due respect to the fantasy football people out there, I don't care who we have back there. Our football team will rush the football. It's who we are."
Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist
Its nice that GMs actually acknowledge fantasy owners, especially ones who can best understand when a club is unable to hit on a feature back, and who then listen to the rationalizations that attempt to deflect that.
It’s looking like there's at least eight clubs with serious RBBCs:
Broncos: So lets get this right; the team allowed former workhorse RB Mike Anderson to leave, and talked up holdover Ron Dayne as his successor going into camp. What has transpired since speaks to a mediocre group of backs, with apparently little difference among them, because frontrunner Dayne has been cut, holdover Tatum Bell has not seized his opportunity,unknown Mike Bell is the quasi-#1, and Cedric Cobbs is the #3. From a fantasy standpoint, Mr. Sundquist, I do care who is back there, because right now, there's nothing more than #3 fantasy backs. We'll see how Mike handles the hot read. If Tatum, the homerun guy, gets enough carries, he could be a decent #2 fantasy, but he's had a couple years to prove himself, and can't. Annoying.
Panthers (Foster and rookie Williams), Saints (McAllister and rookie Bush), Patriots (Dillon and rookie Maroney), and Colts (Rhodes and rookie Addai): I group these together because they're all similar. To their credit, these clubs have set things in motion for a succession plan, drafting heir apparents, but keeping once-productive vets, now in decline, until the young'ins are ready. As fantasy owners, our problem is that we have to wait, and endure the coachspeak all season. The former #1/2 fantasy backs are reduced to #3s (60% of past production), and we have to hand cuff them. Extremely irritating.
Texans (Lundy and back up Morency, maybe Dayne!) and Jets (Barlow and back ups Houston, Blaylock, etc., etc..): The grouping mentioned earlier has made their moves to avoid what is happening with these two clubs, injuries to former fantasy stud backs, Dom Davis and CMart respectively, and scrambling to replace them. Granted, the clubs had tried with 2nd and 3rd round types a few years ago, but they didn't hit on them. Even though the situations might have been anticipated this summer, both clubs are re-building and apparently chose to devote their assets to other needs, at least this year. You have to wonder if this is all by design; they are now assured of high draft status, to choose a stud rookie back next year. Why waste a year of a back's shelf life this year? It is not exciting stuff here, and those that draft QBs too high or #1 WRs too early and then must rely on these #3 backs will be disappointed this year.
Bears: Holdover RB Thomas Jones was never supposed to be here by now. He was brought in for a different scheme, long discarded, and the club did the smart thing and drafted a better fit, Cedric Benson, for their new attack. But, for a slew of reasons, said and unsaid, Benson has not stepped up. Like the Broncos, this is prime fantasy real estate for backs, and we're left with drafting both Bear RBs, and reading how HC Lovie Smith is "excited" over Jones starting Week 1.
What are the implications for all this? It’s a good thing you guys subscribed to Greg Alan and the gang, because you can't rely on reading the mainstream news services this year for the RBBCs. Such as, the Patriots this week still "not knowing" the severity of RB Maroney's mysterious leg injury, which happened over a week ago… is he ruled out for week 1.
A lot of emails again, and I know its long, but if you want to see your name in the bright lights, then read you must:
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personname = Adam Z
comments = Joe.. This is my first Fantasy league and I need help choosing my 1st round draft pick. Im in a 12 team league where 10 yards=1 point and a TD is 6. I have the 4th pick in the draft should i take Payton Manning or a running back like Tiki Barber? Your advice is much needed thanks! Adam Z
Joe: A-through-Z, please read the archives, and start worrying about picks 3-6, which I've been steering you guys through. And check out some of the "pcDrafter" drafters' teams we've seen in this space, they've been awesome.
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personname = Kev
comments = I felt I had a pretty good draft - along with two strong keeper RB's, I was able to draft four pretty reliable WR's. However, my question goes with four specific players:
1) Should I be worried with Droughns as my third RB?
2) Should I be worried with Kennison as my #3 WR
3) Should I be worried about my QB situation.
Thanks dude! Long time reader, first time submitter...
QB: Brooks, Favre
RB: Edge, Caddy, R. Droughns
WR: Moss, Kennison, L. Evans, D. Mason
TE: Shockey, C. Baker (just picked up)
K: J. Brown, Koenen (just picked up)
Def: Seahawks, Cards
Joe: Kevvy, my man, kindly move towards upgrading the QB position ASAP. Before Thursday, if possible. Why did you wait so long to speak with us? Chris Simms might do fine; one of our readers asked me about him, and I looked at the numbers. Intriguing. And get rid of that second kicker. Other than that, good job. Stop worrying about worrying.
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personname = NinerBug
comments = Must keep two of these:
Holt,
St. Smith,
Portis
12 Team League (S. Alexander was my other keeper), and I draft 6th.
First, which two do you keep. Second, would you take R. Bush, knowing he won't come back around?
Joe: I've read where Bush is introducing a new cologne next week, called "619". True story. What can be next? I leave that up to you guys. "619" is apparently referring to his CA area code, and I'm sure there is no other reason for the "6" with the "9"…but, why do you need a "1" in between them, Mr. Bush? Must be promoting safe sex. A real diva in the making, and he hasn't even taken a real hit yet.
I have no idea how to deal with Bush this year, other than I would draft him if I had an open spot. If you're thinking he might be a keeper next year, you might be on to something. But, I'm not drafting him to be fantasy productive this year. Oh, I forgot. Keep SS and CP (former Cane), 'Bug.
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personname = THE RED ZONE
comments = Hi Joe hope ya have a great fantasy football season.Question if you were trying to pick up near the end of your draft a reciever,would ya take E.Kennison or B.Edwards.
Joe: GB's WR Jennings, a 2nd-round guy they must have targeted to replace departed Javon Walker, is more interesting for me. SEA's WR situation is fast becoming murky, Zoner, with DJack not exactly getting any better. SEA actually dropped proven pro Warrick, so something else is there….
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personname = Scott
comments = Hey Joe,
Got a trade question for you. I just finished my draft and im very pleased with the results overall. I drafted 1st in a 10 team league using snake and selected in order S.Alexander, C.Portis, L.Fitzgerald, P.Buress, T.Heap, D.Mason, D.Culpepper, M.Jones, L.Betts, D.Williams,K. Warner,H. Miller, Baltimore, M.Barber, B Loyd and J.brown I was suprised to find clinton portis made it all the way back to me at #20 overall. I reluctantly used my pick on him and took fitzgerald with #21. Problem is im a little nervous with his shoulder and duckett taking all his goal line carries thinking of trading him for a more reliable back such as dunn.Or a 4 player trade using heap and portis for a solid back and a throw in . What do you think ??
Joe: I wouldn't put Dunn in that reliable category, Beam Me Up. Its why I'm so big on Norwood. With all the RBBCs out there as outlined above, the features are even more valuable. There's been nothing I've read where I'm too concerned over Portis -- yet -- so I'd keep him, and you'll congratulate yourself for adroitly picking him at value this year, even if its as a solid fantasy #2 rather than a #1. I wish I had your QBs going in; absolutely great draft dude.
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personname = Spice
comments = Hi Again Captain Joey. I don't mean to take up all your mailbox space, but I have a follow-up question to my previous post. You made a great point: "Watch MIN and PHI, proven OCs with undetermined #1 WRs in WCOs" I think you are right on the money! Troy Williamson is available, but to grab him I need to open up a roster spot. The only guys on my team I would consider cutting are: Heath Miller, Jason Witten or Nate Burleson. Should I grab Williamson and who should I cut to make room?
Joe: Assuming your scoring scheme is the usual thing, after Gates and Heap, they're pretty interchangeable. In fact, they can be matched up fairly readily (we'll get into that during the season), so no need for 2, or even three TEs. I'd go for it.
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personname = Cambion
comments = Joe, just finished a 14 team draft in a high performance league. Scoring has the QB providing the most points followed by RB, then WR and TE. Figure once the top 6 of each position are off the board the #1 spot in the next position is equal in points. Here's what I wound up with:
QB: Warner/McNair/Volek
RB: Parker/Rhodes/Addai/Moroney/Norwood/Turner
WR: Harrison/Boldin/R.Williams/A.Johnson/J.Horn
TE: Gates/Anderson
PK: Rackers
DT: Miami
I know I'm weak on RB, but there wasn't much available since it's a keeper league (Dunn actually went in the 1st round). However, since a #1 WR is equal to a #6 RB in our league, I think my receivers make up for it. However another team has both Dillon and Dunn, should I package a receiver with the rookie backup for one of those starters or sit tight and give it some time?
Joe: Guys, the trick in these keeper leagues is to lock in your backfields, often earlier than you might in a standard draft. This also applies in big leagues as well. What this means is to hand cuff early; in your case, Camby, pick up PIT's Hayes RIGHT NOW, and drop the stiff Volek. Based on your getting some solid RB prospects tells me they %^%$-up and clearly do not subscribe. You're going to love the MIA D this year big fella. Your team is SOLID. Keep posting.
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personname = Steel Curtain
comments = I would love to keep this short, but hey, bandwidth is cheap, so here goes.
Just for a refresher--14 league team, with IDP. 27 round draft. (NFSL) I picked 13th. Scoring is very very complex and has bonuses for rushing average, completion percentages, as well as a TD scale based on yardage. Coaches get points for size of victory, defense gets scaled points for sacks, tackles, safeties, TD's, INTs, fumble recoverys.
We start a QB (alt QB who scores if the starter scores 0) RB, 2-WR, H-Back (either a RB,WR,or TE)(I always make it a RB) Alt. HB (in case the starter scores 0) TE, K, Coach, DL, 2-DB, 3-LB, Nickel (DL,LB or DB) and alternate Nickle.
I used pcdrafter of course, and took everything into consideration. 2 questions. 1. I would like you to rate my draft in your mind, and 2. Give me your opinion on my B/U QB pick. I was going to go with the handcuff Leinart, but Pennington fell to me in the 21st round (which I couldn't beleive) but want your opinion. Would you have gone Leinart or Pennington in round 21?
Here is the rest of my team:
Coach: Del Rio R26
QB Warner R6
QB Rivers R9
QB Johnson R11
QB Pennington R21
RB Jordan R1
RB Parker R2
RB Barlow R7
RB Anderson R12
RB Fargas R27 (handcuff)
WR Chambers R4
WR Houshmandzadeh R5
WR Burleson R8
WR Bennet R10
WR Taylor R19
TE Gates R3
TE Wiggins R13
K Brown R16
K Reed R20
DL Grant R24
LB Witherspoon R14
LB Briggs R15
LB Morrison R17
LB Peterson R18
DB Hamlin R22
DB Keil R23
DB Logan R25
I will pick up another DL when it gets closer to bye week for Grant, or trade Grant for a DL to finish out the season.
Also, I ran my roster compared to the normal top 5 finishers in the league (we are going on 10 years) on WAC, and was at least 10-35 points ahead of these 5 guys!
Thanks Joe!
The Curtain!
Joe: I know you threw in the pcDrafter to go live here, Rust Belt, but c'mon dude. Taking your sweet time on those long, cold December nights might work for you up there in PIT, but it's an event town down here. We're on to the next thing, fast. One thing; Pennington actually "fell" to you? And Fargus is on your radar? You are one dedicated fantasy guy; I am not worthy.
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personname = Joe M
comments = I have Big Ben, and Mcnair as my QB's. Whats your take on Ben this year, should I make a move for a sexier QB. The rest of my squad appears to be solid.
Joe: With the benefit of time responding to you, that appendectomy is unfortunate. I'm not superstitious, but Roth sure looks snake bit. Give me some other names for QBs, we'll go over them. You're gonna need one.
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personname = Jeff
comments = I just got done with our draft 2 days ago. I used the pcdrafter software. I am looking for holes in my squad if you see any. We are in a 10 team league.
1- LJ
2- L. Fitz
3- A. Gates
4- D. Culpepp
5- CHI def
6- Vinateri
7- D. Foster
8- Galloway
(have to fill starting rosters first)
9- Dillon
10- M. Barber
11- Addai
12- D. Mason
13- M. Jones
14- Burleson
15- Brees
16- Mcnair
17- Norwood
not sure if I should aim for trading for my handcuffs. They were gone when my rounds came.
Joe: I guess that starting line up thing explains the round 6 K, but for a moment there, I got the same feeling I get when I got a spam for overweight MILFs --true story--and I wondering, who on earth wants that? Hmm, maybe those guys in PIT and BUF. JUST JOKING!
Interesting tactic, Jeffy Jeff. You got the pick of the litter in almost all positions, but you're a little light on depth. Clearly handcuff, and work the waivers, since most trades involve re-distribution of depth. Keep us posted on your results.
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personname = Rabid Hamster
comments = Joe, allow me to dive into your deep end of knowledge. I believe Westbrook will have a great season because the Eagles have said they will feature the run more this year. Unfortunatley I was unable to land Westbrook in the draft. Given his injury history, do you think Buckhalter is worth picking off waivers or will the Eagles change thier strategy without Westbrook in the event he gets hurt? Inquiring minds want to know...
Joe: I'm not going to bite for that "deep end" lead in, Rodent Lover. Historically, Buckhalter has never been one the Eagles think they can rely on as a feature back; he actually seems to get hurt more than Westbrook, and that's saying something. With a Westbrook sidelined, Buck would be a great flex guy, though. I actually have Westbrook targeted in my next draft this week--don't tell anyone, OK? -- I'm thinking the same thing you are.
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personname = Black
comments = After 13 bers, my headache is gone... Mike Bell or Tatum Bell or
Cedric Cobbs... whos it gonna be, Ive got 2 of the 3.. Damn Shannahan, and
his hate for FFB... What are your thoughts.. Also what about MattJones
this year.. Reggie Wayne is starting to look like Peyton's goto guy.. thats
naysay.. hey its possible... Who shows the most upside this season and
why...
Joe: See the Sundquist quote above; seems like it's not only the Mastermind who gets tired of the fantasy thing. They keep having to 'splain themselves. Wait til Jake throws up some ill-advised red zone passes, and the Cutler thing heats up for them. If they hit on a feature back in DEN this year, Shanahan is a true genius. Who knows which Bell? You're slurring of your speech belies the fact that you really know what you're doing, fella. I like both WRs, as long as you drafted stud backs like I urge everyone.
Keep it coming.
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