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Latest NFL Schedule Hot Spot
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The 2008 NFL Schedule:
Your Roadmap to Success
by
Greg Alan
4for4.com
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Each
season a number of NFL scheduling oddities appear. The 2008 season
is no exception. If you're a serious Fantasy Football owner, you'll
want to consider every edge possible --- including scheduling
anomalies.
Learn how to use "Hot Spots" to target waiver wire
pickups, craftily time trades and optimize your roster for the
playoffs.
In this article, 4for4.com’s Greg Alan breaks down the 2008 NFL
schedule. You’ll find vital tactics that can positively change
your outlook and lead to big results.
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Folks, to win your league championship, you must get hot at the end of the
season!
All your research during the summer will fail to net a championship if you
run out of gas during your fantasy playoffs.
LESS EFFORT + MORE RESULTS = A MUST DO
Many fantasy strategies and tactics often require tons of preparation and
often result in a rather minimal gain. However, leveraging “Hot Spots”
requires little time and often yields a big return. Sound good? Buckle up
and let’s dig in…
In
truth, having just one or two favorable add-on scheduling matchups during
your playoffs is often all it takes to gain an edge --- and walk off with
a championship.
In this article, I make a case for the phrase "Timing is
Everything." Keep that theme in mind this season. If you wisely
leverage the NFL schedule, you'll be able to cleverly time trades,
artfully target waiver wire pickups and most importantly, optimize your
roster for the playoffs.
Even if your draft doesn't go well, by leveraging "Hot Spots"
you'll be turning negatives into positives and strengthening your team.
We’ll start out with some traditional Strength of Schedule (SOS)
research. In addition, I'll offer up a few observations.
I'll also share the initial 4for4.com 2008 Defense Team rankings. We'll
integrate these rankings into the 2008 NFL schedule. Then, we'll build a
roadmap and flag some "Hot Spots." We'll pay particular
attention to the final few weeks of the NFL regular season --- Fantasy
Football playoff time.
In
addition, we’ll review the 4for4.com Team Defense “Hot Spots” – a
great time saver in helping plan out your Team Defensive starts.
Before we dig in I need to get everyone on board and talk about how
important the NFL schedule is when it comes to winning your Fantasy
Football Championship.
Case Study #1 - Chris Schussman wins big in WCOFF
In WCOFF’s first season, despite drafting Vinny Testaverde and Shane
Matthews as his starting QBs and fielding a draft day roster that
claimed Rod Gardner as a #1 receiver, the WCOFF league champion,
Mr. Chris
Schussman, walked
away with a cool $200,000 grand prize. How did he do it? Plain and simple,
he got red hot in the playoffs starting in Week #13. As it turns out, each
of his first three draft picks had green (good) "Hot Spots" in
the WCOFF playoffs. All three of his top picks delivered when it counted
the most and Chris walked away a huge WCOFF winner!
Case Study #2 – Greg Alan goes 53-0!
That same year, I competed in an 11-team private Fantasy league. In this
auction/draft league I faced long time rivals, several of whom I consider
to be among the strongest Fantasy Football players in the world. Because I
built my roster around the 4for4.com "Hot Spots" I was literally
unstoppable after mid season. In fact, I was the highest scoring team six
weeks in a row! As a result, coming down the stretch I posted a
head-to-head record of 53-0, dominated the playoffs and walked off with
another championship.
Case Study #3 – Jim McVicar plans and wins FFTOC
The first online FFTOC Champion, Jim McVicar, summed it up this way, “I
started working on (and planning out) my lineups for last year in May just
as I have this year… I really can’t wait for this season to begin.”
Turns out, Jim saved and planned to use a number of studs in the
final week of the FFTOC playoffs. All those players had easy matchups,
giving McVicar the points he needed to win the Fantasy Football Online
Championship title.
After all the draft day strategy, all the player evaluations and
preseason analysis, the fact remains - if you want to win a big-time
national contest like WCOFF or the FFTOC you need to get hot at the end of
the season. If you don't get hot at the end, your chances of winning it
all are slim. The same is true in most local leagues -- you must finish
strong.
Next, I'll address specifics about the 2008 NFL season. I'll focus on
actionable tips, and things you can use.
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
To kick things off, we'll start by examining opponents' win-loss records
from the prior season. As is the case with much SOS data, you'll want to
use caution and good reasoning, especially if your SOS analysis completely
hinges on performance from last year.
I'd strongly suggest you steer clear of fragmented stats derived solely
from last year's data. As much as I love analysis, fantasy managers that
drill down into measures like "Yardage Allowed to a TE" and
"Opponent's Red-zone FG accuracy" often miss the big picture.
These studies often lack predictive rigor. Measures like "Yardage
Allowed to an Opposing #3 WR" rarely hold up from year-to-year.
Rather than generate a stack of metrics based on last year's data, the
trick is to look for significant outliers and shifts from the prior
season. That’s exactly what Table I does for us.
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Table
I
2008 Strength of Schedule
(ranking
on schedule change from 2007 to 2008)
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Rank
(schedule going
easier to harder)
|
Team
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%Change
from 2007 to 2008
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2008 Opponents
Prior to Season
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2007
Opponents
Prior to Season
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2006
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
2005
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
2004
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
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1
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NE
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-0.148
|
0.387
|
0.535
|
0.473
|
0.539
|
0.512
|
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2
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OAK
|
-0.101
|
0.438
|
0.539
|
0.516
|
0.527
|
0.512
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3
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BUF
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-0.09
|
0.449
|
0.539
|
0.477
|
0.531
|
0.512
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4
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SD
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-0.082
|
0.422
|
0.504
|
0.488
|
0.543
|
0.506
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5
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KC
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-0.063
|
0.453
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0.516
|
0.527
|
0.535
|
0.488
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6
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NYJ
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-0.059
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0.457
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0.516
|
0.465
|
0.535
|
0.512
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7
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DEN
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-0.059
|
0.445
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0.504
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0.516
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0.523
|
0.49
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8
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MIA
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-0.047
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0.465
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0.512
|
0.469
|
0.547
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0.531
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9
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NO
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-0.035
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0.449
|
0.484
|
0.539
|
0.492
|
0.504
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10
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CAR
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-0.012
|
0.465
|
0.477
|
0.504
|
0.492
|
0.492
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11
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ATL
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-0.012
|
0.461
|
0.473
|
0.508
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0.5
|
0.488
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12
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SEA
|
-0.011
|
0.477
|
0.488
|
0.457
|
0.457
|
0.516
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13
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TB
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-0.004
|
0.469
|
0.473
|
0.539
|
0.492
|
0.484
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14
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ARI
|
0.004
|
0.465
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0.461
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0.5
|
0.449
|
0.523
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15
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STL
|
0.015
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0.488
|
0.473
|
0.508
|
0.445
|
0.512
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16
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SF
|
0.015
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0.484
|
0.469
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0.477
|
0.471
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0.512
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17
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PHI
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0.02
|
0.52
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0.5
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0.52
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0.453
|
0.472
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18
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WAS
|
0.023
|
0.523
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0.5
|
0.516
|
0.465
|
0.492
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19
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TEN
|
0.023
|
0.543
|
0.52
|
0.527
|
0.492
|
0.486
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20
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NYG
|
0.024
|
0.52
|
0.496
|
0.543
|
0.488
|
0.48
|
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21
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DAL
|
0.027
|
0.523
|
0.496
|
0.504
|
0.477
|
0.469
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22
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CIN
|
0.035
|
0.547
|
0.512
|
0.543
|
0.523
|
0.508
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23
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CLE
|
0.039
|
0.547
|
0.508
|
0.512
|
0.527
|
0.488
|
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24
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DET
|
0.039
|
0.543
|
0.504
|
0.473
|
0.488
|
0.492
|
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25
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GB
|
0.039
|
0.531
|
0.492
|
0.449
|
0.496
|
0.508
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26
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HOU
|
0.043
|
0.547
|
0.504
|
0.523
|
0.504
|
0.51
|
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27
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BAL
|
0.043
|
0.551
|
0.508
|
0.523
|
0.531
|
0.508
|
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28
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MIN
|
0.051
|
0.551
|
0.5
|
0.457
|
0.48
|
0.496
|
|
29
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JAX
|
0.051
|
0.559
|
0.508
|
0.488
|
0.504
|
0.516
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30
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CHI
|
0.066
|
0.531
|
0.465
|
0.445
|
0.48
|
0.496
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31
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IND
|
0.078
|
0.594
|
0.516
|
0.484
|
0.504
|
0.508
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32
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PIT
|
0.086
|
0.598
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0.512
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0.531
|
0.508
|
0.476
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A
few thing to keep in mind as you examine Table I…
* If you loved the Patriots offense last year, you'll certainly
enjoy the 2008 season. New England looks to benefit from their 2008
schedule as long as they keep their offensive momentum going and they stay
healthy. As amazing as it sounds, Tom Brady and Randy Moss will
face more teams that can’t stop the pass in 2008 than in 2007. Compared
to their opponents in 2007, New England has a much easier schedule this
year and they have the most favorable schedule shift in the entire NFL!
And don’t forget, the Patriots passed for over 4700 yards last season
and rushed for another 1849.
* The Oakland Raiders might do better than some might think in
2008. The schedule makers certainly did their part. On paper, Oakland’s
schedule looks much easier in 2008 than it was last year (44% vs. 54%).
* In part, as a result of their impressive winning record last year, the Colts
will face their toughest schedule in five years. Still, serious
Fantasy managers need to go deeper. Peyton
Manning and the Colts offense will finish strong. Towards the
season’s end, in critical week’s 13-15, the Colts will face Cleveland,
Cincinnati and Detroit. All three games could end up being
shootouts.
* Due to their modest performance in 2007, the Bills have an easier
schedule in 2008. In fact, it’s their easiest schedule in five years. Marshawn
Lynch and Company will battle foes with a 44.9% win rate. Last year,
entering the season Buffalo faced teams with a 53.9% win rate. However, if
your league has its Super Bowl in week 17, be careful not to load up on
the Bills as they face the powerful New England Patriots.
* In a case of the rich getting richer, once again things look very
promising for the San Diego Chargers. Based on last year’s
results, the Chargers have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL.
In fact, outside of week six, the Chargers never play a 4for4.com Top-7
defensive team the entire season!
* The Chiefs have no excuses. They have an easier schedule in 2008.
In fact, they have the 5th most favorable shift in schedule
difficulty in the entire league. Equally sweet, come critical week 16, KC
faces the Miami Dolphins - that could spell big fantasy points for Larry
Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe.
* Despite a losing season in 2007, the Bears schedule actually
gets much harder in 2008. Thanks to the competitive AFC-South, Chicago has
the 3rd most unfavorable shift in schedule difficulty in the
entire league. At the start of last season Chicago faced teams with a
combined winning record for 46.5%.
* Don’t look for the Carolina Panthers to pile on many fantasy
points the first three weeks. To start the season they’ll face the Chargers,
Bears and Vikings – all rank among 4for4.com’s Top-5 rated
defensive units.
* Also be weary of those Green Bay Packers. They just
can’t catch a break. Aside from Brett Favre retiring, their schedule
actually gets harder in 2008. Early in the season they face Minnesota
and Dallas. Down the line, in back-to-back weeks they face the Vikings
and Bears. A few weeks later, in critical week 16, they once again
must take on Chicago.
* When it comes to the 2008 Arizona Cardinals, remember,
"Timing is Everything." Week 15 and 16 are critical weeks in
most fantasy leagues. That's not good news for Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan
Boldin, Edge James and Matt Leinart. In week 15 they face the
rugged Minnesota Vikings. Next, in week 16, with many Fantasy
championships hanging in the balance, Arizona goes up against a very stout
New England defense. Serious Fantasy owners should take note – if
any Cardinal player comes out of the gate extra strong be sure to trade
them away for quality talent before week 15 and your playoffs. The time to
trade Arizona players is after week three, as AZ had a chance to beat up
on SF, Miami and Washington’s porous defensive
units. Another optimal time to sell high is after week 10, as AZ comes off
big games against the Rams and 49ers!
Against the Run / Against the Pass
Examining the 2008 Schedule using an opponent's record from the prior year
gives you a reasonable idea of schedule difficulty. Sure, its far from
perfect, still it offers you a "vaguely right" approach.
Ideally, for Fantasy Football purposes, we'd like to objectively segment
defensive team pass and rush performance. Then, everything else being
equal, forecast passing and rushing using last year's data. The problem
is, in going from last year to this year, everything else isn't equal.
If you segment last year’s defensive pass and defensive rush performance
and follow it blindly, you face the very real risk of being
"precisely wrong." All that being said, year-to-year pass/rush
data does offer a modest level of predictive accuracy. Given that, next up
I offer up a few more observations.
* In this space in 2004, I identified the Colts as the team having
the easiest pass defense schedule. I said, “Peyton Manning owners
could really be loving life if this data holds up.” Well, Peyton
Manning took full advantage and broke many of Dan Marino’s
single-season records. This season, the Seattle Seahawks have the
distinction of facing the easiest pass defense schedule in the entire NFL.
On paper, based on the schedule, it certainly looks like a good Fantasy
season for Matt Hasselbeck.
* Presumably it’s LenDale White, Chris Henry and rookie
speedster Chris Johnson (a guy that runs a legitimate 4.2-40), but
regardless of who it is, the RB that gets the bulk of carries in Tennessee
this year could turn out to be very special. The Titans face one of the
easiest schedules when it comes to opposing run defense.
* The Chiefs also have one of the easiest schedules against
opposing run defenses and that plays right into Coach Herm Edwards’ offensive
scheme – run the ball. All that said, don’t go over board reaching for
Larry Johnson this summer. His 360+ carry season put plenty of wear
on his wheels and KC’s offensive line still has huge issues. In addition
QB uncertainty abounds in KC and their WR core ranks near the bottom of
the league. L.J. is a back that won’t escape the first round -- but
probably should.
* The Vikings arguably had the best rushing attack in the NFL last year as
they lead the league with over 2,600 yards on the ground. In 2008, the
rich could get richer. According to last year's data, Adrian Peterson and
the Vikings face the 4th softest run defense schedule in the
entire NFL.
* If Pittsburgh can keep their offense on track and build from last
year’s success, Ben Roethlisberger,
Hines Ward and
Santonio
Holmes could
all put up good numbers in 2008. The Steelers face the 2nd
easiest pass defense schedule in the entire NFL. Add in particularly soft
games against the Texans, Browns and Bengals and
things look promising.
* We all know RB Michael Turner and the Falcons want to run
the ball in 2008. But, on paper they face the 2nd most
difficult NFL run defense schedule. Making matters worse for fantasy
managers holding Falcons RBs, weeks 6, 13 and 16 look particularly hard
for the Falcons. All this could make a healthy Roddy White an
undervalued WR as the Falcons may be forced to pass more than they would
like.
* Using last year's data and this year's schedule, the Lions, Jets
and Rams may face a bigger challenge running the ball than most
teams. While prior year rush defense offers some forecasting validity,
obviously don't count out Steve Jackson. He’s done reasonably
well against rugged defensive schedules before.
* Last year in this space I identified Tony Romo as a draft day
bargain saying, “data suggests… Tony Romo could once again make for an
excellent value pick, especially now that he has a year of experience
working with Terrell Owens.”
This year I’ve seen Donovan McNabb being drafted in the 4th
round. In most league formats, that’s a reach. Don’t do it. Instead
build a strong QBBC in rounds 7-9 and you’ll create more value with less
risk. If you
need to reach for a QB late in your draft, give Matt Leinart a hard
look. Likewise, deep into
your draft you’ll find several other values including Marc Bulger,
Matt Schaub and David Garrard.
* Vince Young isn't going to be catching any breaks this season due
to an easy passing schedule. Using 2007 stats, the Titans will be facing
the 2nd best cumulative pass defense this year.
* In the offseason, Mike Martz joined the 49ers after serving as
offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions for the past two seasons. Martz
has to be a happy man. Regardless what his critics say, Martz loves to
pass the ball. On paper, the 49ers will be facing the 7th
best cumulative rush defense this year. The good news – cumulatively, SF
will face the 4th worst rated pass defense in 2008. What choice
does Martz have but to become pass-happy yet again?
Table II– Using 2007 Data to Estimate 2008 Pass/Run Schedule
Difficulty
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Against the Pass
(Ranked
Easiest to Hardest)
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Rank
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Team
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Avg. Ranked Pass Def.
Opponent
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1
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SEA
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21.0
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2
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PIT
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20.8
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3
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SF
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20.5
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4
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TB
|
20.0
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5
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ARI
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19.7
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6
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STL
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19.3
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7
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CLE
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17.9
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8
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BAL
|
17.6
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9
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CAR
|
17.3
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10
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CHI
|
17.3
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11
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CIN
|
17.0
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12
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GB
|
16.9
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13
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ATL
|
16.9
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14
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MIN
|
16.7
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15
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PHI
|
16.7
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16
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DAL
|
16.5
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17
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OAK
|
16.0
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18
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NYG
|
15.9
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19
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NYJ
|
15.9
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20
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BUF
|
15.7
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21
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WAS
|
15.7
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22
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IND
|
15.4
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23
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KC
|
15.1
|
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24
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NO
|
15.1
|
|
25
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MIA
|
14.9
|
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26
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NE
|
14.8
|
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27
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DET
|
14.6
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28
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SD
|
14.3
|
|
29
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TEN
|
14.1
|
|
30
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HOU
|
13.3
|
|
31
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JAX
|
12.9
|
|
32
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DEN
|
12.6
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Against
the Run
(Ranked Easiest to Hardest)
|
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Avg.
Ranked
Run Def. Opponent
|
|
1
|
KC
|
20.2
|
|
2
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TEN
|
19.3
|
|
3
|
OAK
|
19.1
|
|
4
|
MIN
|
18.8
|
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5
|
GB
|
18.6
|
|
6
|
SD
|
18.5
|
|
7
|
DEN
|
18.1
|
|
8
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PIT
|
18.0
|
|
9
|
NO
|
18.0
|
|
10
|
HOU
|
17.8
|
|
11
|
JAX
|
17.6
|
|
12
|
NE
|
17.1
|
|
13
|
TB
|
16.9
|
|
14
|
BAL
|
16.9
|
|
15
|
ARI
|
16.8
|
|
16
|
CLE
|
16.7
|
|
17
|
IND
|
16.5
|
|
18
|
SEA
|
15.8
|
|
19
|
DAL
|
15.5
|
|
20
|
MIA
|
15.4
|
|
21
|
BUF
|
15.4
|
|
22
|
NYG
|
15.1
|
|
23
|
CIN
|
15.1
|
|
24
|
CAR
|
14.9
|
|
25
|
SF
|
14.8
|
|
26
|
WAS
|
14.8
|
|
27
|
PHI
|
14.6
|
|
28
|
CHI
|
14.6
|
|
29
|
DET
|
14.5
|
|
30
|
NYJ
|
14.4
|
|
31
|
ATL
|
14.3
|
|
32
|
STL
|
14.0
|
|
|
|
|
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Table III –
4for4.com’s Early Season
2008 Team Defense Rankings
|
|
|
Defensive
Rank
|
Team
|
|
1
|
SD
|
|
2
|
NE
|
|
3
|
MIN
|
|
4
|
CHI
|
|
5
|
DAL
|
|
6
|
NYG
|
|
7
|
JAX
|
|
8
|
IND
|
|
9
|
SEA
|
|
10
|
GB
|
|
11
|
PHI
|
|
12
|
PIT
|
|
13
|
TEN
|
|
14
|
BAL
|
|
15
|
BUF
|
|
16
|
TB
|
|
17
|
ARI
|
|
18
|
NYJ
|
|
19
|
CAR
|
|
20
|
DEN
|
|
21
|
CLE
|
|
22
|
OAK
|
|
23
|
DET
|
|
24
|
NO
|
|
25
|
SF
|
|
26
|
CIN
|
|
27
|
WAS
|
|
28
|
HOU
|
|
29
|
STL
|
|
30
|
KC
|
|
31
|
MIA
|
|
32
|
ATL
|
|
|
|
|
Next,
we substitute opponent name with their defensive rank in the 2008
schedule. To complete the "Hot Spots" chart, we color-code the
areas of opportunity in green and
flag the more difficult areas in red.
As you examine the "Hot Spot" chart in Table IV, keep in mind
the larger the number, the easier the opponent's defense. I like to think
of the "Hot Spots" as a roadmap --- I use it to steer away from
the "red" and into the "green."
|
|
|
|
Table
IV
2008 NFL Schedule
4for4.com “Hot Spots”
|
|
|
|
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
|
ARI
|
25
|
31
|
27
|
18
|
15
|
5
|
bye
|
19
|
29
|
25
|
9
|
6
|
11
|
29
|
3
|
2
|
9
|
|
ATL
|
23
|
16
|
30
|
19
|
10
|
4
|
bye
|
11
|
22
|
24
|
20
|
19
|
1
|
24
|
16
|
3
|
29
|
|
BAL
|
26
|
28
|
21
|
12
|
13
|
8
|
31
|
22
|
21
|
bye
|
6
|
11
|
26
|
27
|
12
|
5
|
7
|
|
BUF
|
9
|
7
|
22
|
29
|
17
|
bye
|
1
|
31
|
18
|
2
|
21
|
30
|
25
|
31
|
18
|
20
|
2
|
|
CAR
|
1
|
4
|
3
|
32
|
30
|
16
|
24
|
17
|
bye
|
22
|
23
|
32
|
10
|
16
|
20
|
6
|
24
|
|
CHI
|
8
|
19
|
16
|
11
|
23
|
32
|
3
|
bye
|
23
|
13
|
10
|
29
|
3
|
7
|
24
|
10
|
28
|
|
CIN
|
14
|
13
|
6
|
21
|
5
|
18
|
12
|
bye
|
7
|
28
|
11
|
12
|
14
|
8
|
27
|
21
|
30
|
|
CLE
|
5
|
12
|
14
|
26
|
bye
|
6
|
27
|
7
|
14
|
20
|
15
|
28
|
8
|
13
|
11
|
26
|
12
|
|
DAL
|
21
|
11
|
10
|
27
|
26
|
17
|
29
|
16
|
6
|
bye
|
27
|
25
|
9
|
12
|
6
|
14
|
11
|
|
DEN
|
22
|
1
|
24
|
30
|
16
|
7
|
2
|
bye
|
31
|
21
|
32
|
22
|
18
|
30
|
19
|
15
|
1
|
|
DET
|
32
|
10
|
25
|
bye
|
4
|
3
|
28
|
27
|
4
|
7
|
19
|
16
|
13
|
3
|
8
|
24
|
10
|
|
GB
|
3
|
23
|
5
|
16
|
32
|
9
|
8
|
bye
|
13
|
3
|
4
|
24
|
19
|
28
|
7
|
4
|
23
|
|
HOU
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
7
|
8
|
31
|
23
|
bye
|
3
|
26
|
8
|
21
|
7
|
10
|
13
|
22
|
4
|
|
IND
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
bye
|
28
|
14
|
10
|
13
|
2
|
12
|
28
|
1
|
21
|
26
|
23
|
7
|
13
|
|
JAX
|
13
|
15
|
8
|
28
|
12
|
20
|
bye
|
21
|
26
|
23
|
13
|
3
|
28
|
4
|
10
|
8
|
14
|
|
KC
|
2
|
22
|
32
|
20
|
19
|
bye
|
13
|
18
|
16
|
1
|
24
|
15
|
22
|
20
|
1
|
31
|
26
|
|
MIA
|
18
|
17
|
2
|
bye
|
1
|
28
|
14
|
15
|
20
|
9
|
22
|
2
|
29
|
15
|
25
|
30
|
18
|
|
MIN
|
10
|
8
|
19
|
13
|
24
|
23
|
4
|
bye
|
28
|
10
|
16
|
7
|
4
|
23
|
17
|
32
|
6
|
|
NE
|
30
|
18
|
31
|
bye
|
25
|
1
|
20
|
29
|
8
|
15
|
18
|
31
|
12
|
9
|
22
|
17
|
15
|
|
NO
|
16
|
27
|
20
|
25
|
3
|
22
|
19
|
1
|
bye
|
32
|
30
|
10
|
16
|
32
|
4
|
23
|
19
|
|
NYG
|
27
|
29
|
26
|
bye
|
9
|
21
|
25
|
12
|
5
|
11
|
14
|
17
|
27
|
11
|
5
|
19
|
3
|
|
NYJ
|
31
|
2
|
1
|
17
|
bye
|
26
|
22
|
30
|
15
|
29
|
2
|
13
|
20
|
25
|
15
|
9
|
31
|
|
OAK
|
20
|
30
|
15
|
1
|
bye
|
24
|
18
|
14
|
32
|
19
|
31
|
20
|
30
|
1
|
2
|
28
|
16
|
|
PHI
|
29
|
5
|
12
|
4
|
27
|
25
|
bye
|
32
|
9
|
6
|
26
|
14
|
17
|
6
|
21
|
27
|
5
|
|
PIT
|
28
|
21
|
11
|
14
|
7
|
bye
|
26
|
6
|
27
|
8
|
1
|
26
|
2
|
5
|
14
|
13
|
21
|
|
SD
|
19
|
20
|
18
|
22
|
31
|
2
|
15
|
24
|
bye
|
30
|
12
|
8
|
32
|
22
|
30
|
16
|
20
|
|
SEA
|
15
|
25
|
29
|
bye
|
6
|
10
|
16
|
25
|
11
|
31
|
17
|
27
|
5
|
2
|
29
|
18
|
17
|
|
SF
|
17
|
9
|
23
|
24
|
2
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
bye
|
17
|
29
|
5
|
15
|
18
|
31
|
29
|
27
|
|
STL
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
15
|
bye
|
27
|
5
|
2
|
17
|
18
|
25
|
4
|
31
|
17
|
9
|
25
|
32
|
|
TB
|
24
|
32
|
4
|
10
|
20
|
19
|
9
|
5
|
30
|
bye
|
3
|
23
|
24
|
19
|
32
|
1
|
22
|
|
TEN
|
7
|
26
|
28
|
3
|
14
|
bye
|
30
|
8
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
18
|
23
|
21
|
28
|
12
|
8
|
|
WAS
|
6
|
24
|
17
|
5
|
11
|
29
|
21
|
23
|
12
|
bye
|
5
|
9
|
6
|
14
|
26
|
11
|
25
|
|
|
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
|
|
Red=
Difficult Schedule
|
|
Green= Favorable Schedule
|
|
|
|
|
"Hot
Spot" observations from Greg Alan…
* If you don’t draft Carolina’s Steve Smith, wrangle him away
in a trade at the end of week 3. At that stage, the Panthers will have
played the Chargers, Bears and Vikings – all are
Top-5 4for4.com defenses. Even the amazing Steve Smith will have a hard
time generating attractive numbers against that schedule. But here’s the
real kicker… after week three Carolina will never play a top-5 defense
the rest of the season. Trading for Smith while his stock is low could
give you the extra edge you need to win your championship in 2008.
* In what can only be described as a gift from the NFL, the 49ers
Fantasy Playoff schedule looks golden. In week 15 they face the Dolphins
defense. In week 16 they play the Rams. The trick is loading up on Frank
Gore and Vernon Davis but not over paying. Make sure your
fantasy team takes full advantage. For “Start Em Once” FFTOC-style
fantasy football managers, it doesn’t get any better than this.
* Thanks in large part to Brett Favre the Packers have had a great
passing attack for many years. Even if you think new starting QB Aaron
Rodgers can step right in, be very careful late in the season. In week
15 they play the Jaguars. And if your championship is in week 16
look out – they take on the Bears. Upshot? If your team is
overloaded loaded with Packers including Ryan Grant and Greg
Jennings, you could be in big trouble come fantasy playoff time.
* The Colts offense faces a very difficult schedule the
first three weeks playing the Bears, Vikings and Jaguars.
That’s not going to be easy, even for Joseph Addai. On the plus
side, some Indy studs may become undervalued after week three and that’s
exactly the time you can buy low. Down the road it will pay off. As
already mentioned, in fantasy critical week’s 13-15, the Colts will face
Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit. Wise owners will
find ways to leverage this scheduling imbalance.
* In a similar fashion, the Steelers high-powered offense could
struggle mid-way into the season. Starting in week eleven, over the next
four weeks, Pittsburgh will face the Chargers, Patriots and Cowboys.
Frankly, that might be the hardest four-week window any offense will face
this year. At that stage, given possible modest fantasy production, some
newbie owners will panic about their Steeler players. If they do, it’s
your chance to clean up and make some great value moves.
* The New Your Giants offense could come out of the gate much
stronger than most think in 2008. The Vikings face the Redskins, Rams and
Bengals in the first three weeks of the season. On paper, aside from New
England and Arizona’s highly favorable early schedules, it
doesn’t get any easier.
* Overall the Cowboys offense may be hard pressed to match what
they did in 2007. But serious fantasy managers will be wise to check out
the ‘Boys 2008 schedule. Over the entire season they’ll never face a
4for4.com top-5 defense! It doesn't take much imagination to see how a
healthy Tony Romo and Terrell Owens could be thriving in the
2nd half of the season and helping you win.
* From week’s 9 to 16 the Denver Broncos do not face a single
team ranked inside 4for4.com's Top-15 defensive units. You’ll want to
have Denver running backs available for your final push.
* Even more amazing, after week seven, collectively, on average, LT’s San
Diego Chargers will compete against the NFL’s 22nd best
defense. In fact, the “best” defense the Chargers face after week 7 is
the Colts, and they only rank 8th out of 32.
As you can see, there's almost no end to how you can leverage "Hot
Spots" to increase your odds of winning. Some of my favorite ways are
listed in Table V.
|
Table
V - Ways to Leverage 4for4.com "Hot Spots" to Your
Advantage
1) Prudent long-term roster planning
2) Craftily time trades
3) Target waiver wire pickups
4) Optimize your roster for the playoffs
5) Develop a week-to-week game plan in advance
|
Don’t Ignore Your Team Defense
Next, I’d like to
offer some material to help you with your team defense starts. With a
little planning you can gain a huge edge, even if you don’t draft an
elite NFL defense.
I can’t say this enough, if you
want an edge, start planning out what team defenses you should start each
week. This will help you during your draft and during the long NFL season.
So why don’t more FF managers plan out which team defenses to use?
Answer: It can often be a very time consuming task when done from scratch.
That’s why 4for4.com created Tables VI and VII. By consulting these
charts you can quickly gain insights.
For example, most agree the Chicago Bears look to have an excellent
defense. But, you might not want to start them in week one against the
high-powered Colts offense. So, if you draft the Bears as your #1 defense,
you’d like your #2 defense to have a decent matchup in week one.
In this case take the New York Jets as an early season
companion defense to the Bears - in week one the J.E.T.S tee off against
the rebuilding Dolphins offense.
Combination Platter
Team
combinations are my favorite way to use the 4for4.com Team Defense Hot
Spots.
Example: I want two team defenses that will help get me off to a great
start. However, I don’t want to pay dearly for my defensive teams (e.g.
Chargers, Patriots, Bears, Vikings).
With that goal in mind, after a few minutes consulting Table VI, I quickly
see how combining the Panthers and Falcons could actually
give me five very attractive starts over the first six weeks of the NFL
season. In fact, by combining those middle-tier defensive teams, I
actually have a stronger early season defensive roster than the manager
that paid a heavy price for the Vikings.
If you want to come out of the gate with a crushing defensive combo that
can be had on the cheap, consider the Tampa-Jets pairing –
you’ll have three crushing defensive matchups to start the season
against the like of Miami, Atlanta and Chicago’s offense.
Here’s another tip - to fully optimize your team defense, always examine
teams on your roster and on the waiver wire when developing your
week-to-week look ahead plan. I’m already eying up that KC-Miami
Week-16 matchup. If the Dolphins continue their inept offensive ways, KC
could be a nice wire pickup for my week 16 Super Bowl.
Table VI: 4for4.com Team Defense "Hot
Spots"
|
|
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
|
ARI
DEF
|
27
SF
|
32
MIA
|
16
WAS
|
25
NYJ
|
23
BUF
|
2
DAL
|
bye
|
17
CAR
|
22
STL
|
27
SF
|
9
SEA
|
8
NYG
|
11
PHI
|
22
STL
|
14
MIN
|
1
NE
|
9
SEA
|
|
ATL
DEF
|
15
DET
|
18
TB
|
29
KC
|
17
CAR
|
21
GB
|
28
CHI
|
bye
|
11
PHI
|
24
OAK
|
4
NO
|
20
DEN
|
17
CAR
|
7
SD
|
4
NO
|
18
TB
|
14
MIN
|
22
STL
|
|
BAL
DEF
|
6
CIN
|
19
HOU
|
10
CLE
|
5
PIT
|
26
TEN
|
3
IND
|
32
MIA
|
24
OAK
|
10
CLE
|
bye
|
8
NYG
|
11
PHI
|
6
CIN
|
16
WAS
|
5
PIT
|
2
DAL
|
13
JAX
|
|
BUF
DEF
|
9
SEA
|
13
JAX
|
24
OAK
|
22
STL
|
12
ARI
|
bye
|
7
SD
|
32
MIA
|
25
NYJ
|
1
NE
|
10
CLE
|
29
KC
|
27
SF
|
32
MIA
|
25
NYJ
|
20
DEN
|
1
NE
|
|
CAR
DEF
|
7
SD
|
28
CHI
|
14
MIN
|
30
ATL
|
29
KC
|
18
TB
|
4
NO
|
12
ARI
|
bye
|
24
OAK
|
15
DET
|
30
ATL
|
21
GB
|
18
TB
|
20
DEN
|
8
NYG
|
4
NO
|
|
CHI
DEF
|
3
IND
|
17
CAR
|
18
TB
|
11
PHI
|
15
DET
|
30
ATL
|
14
MIN
|
bye
|
15
DET
|
26
TEN
|
21
GB
|
22
STL
|
14
MIN
|
13
JAX
|
4
NO
|
21
GB
|
19
HOU
|
|
CIN
DEF
|
31
BAL
|
26
TEN
|
8
NYG
|
10
CLE
|
2
DAL
|
25
NYJ
|
5
PIT
|
bye
|
13
JAX
|
19
HOU
|
11
PHI
|
5
PIT
|
31
BAL
|
3
IND
|
16
WAS
|
10
CLE
|
29
KC
|
|
CLE
DEF
|
2
DAL
|
5
PIT
|
31
BAL
|
6
CIN
|
bye
|
8
NYG
|
16
WAS
|
13
JAX
|
31
BAL
|
20
DEN
|
23
BUF
|
19
HOU
|
3
IND
|
26
TEN
|
11
PHI
|
6
CIN
|
5
PIT
|
|
DAL
DEF
|
10
CLE
|
11
PHI
|
21
GB
|
16
WAS
|
6
CIN
|
12
ARI
|
22
STL
|
18
TB
|
8
NYG
|
bye
|
16
WAS
|
27
SF
|
9
SEA
|
5
PIT
|
8
NYG
|
31
BAL
|
11
PHI
|
|
DEN
DEF
|
24
OAK
|
7
SD
|
4
NO
|
29
KC
|
18
TB
|
13
JAX
|
1
NE
|
bye
|
32
MIA
|
10
CLE
|
30
ATL
|
24
OAK
|
25
NYJ
|
29
KC
|
17
CAR
|
23
BUF
|
7
SD
|
|
DET
DEF
|
30
ATL
|
21
GB
|
27
SF
|
bye
|
28
CHI
|
14
MIN
|
19
HOU
|
16
WAS
|
28
CHI
|
13
JAX
|
17
CAR
|
18
TB
|
26
TEN
|
14
MIN
|
3
IND
|
4
NO
|
21
GB
|
|
GB
DEF
|
14
MIN
|
15
DET
|
2
DAL
|
18
TB
|
30
ATL
|
9
SEA
|
3
IND
|
bye
|
26
TEN
|
14
MIN
|
28
CHI
|
4
NO
|
17
CAR
|
19
HOU
|
13
JAX
|
28
CHI
|
15
DET
|
|
HOU
DEF
|
5
PIT
|
31
BAL
|
26
TEN
|
13
JAX
|
3
IND
|
32
MIA
|
15
DET
|
bye
|
14
MIN
|
6
CIN
|
3
IND
|
10
CLE
|
13
JAX
|
21
GB
|
26
TEN
|
24
OAK
|
28
CHI
|
|
IND
DEF
|
28
CHI
|
14
MIN
|
13
JAX
|
bye
|
19
HOU
|
31
BAL
|
21
GB
|
26
TEN
|
1
NE
|
5
PIT
|
19
HOU
|
7
SD
|
10
CLE
|
6
CIN
|
15
DET
|
13
JAX
|
26
TEN
|
|
JAX
DEF
|
26
TEN
|
23
BUF
|
3
IND
|
19
HOU
|
5
PIT
|
20
DEN
|
bye
|
10
CLE
|
6
CIN
|
15
DET
|
26
TEN
|
14
MIN
|
19
HOU
|
28
CHI
|
21
GB
|
3
IND
|
31
BAL
|
|
KC
DEF
|
1
NE
|
24
OAK
|
30
ATL
|
20
DEN
|
17
CAR
|
bye
|
26
TEN
|
25
NYJ
|
18
TB
|
7
SD
|
4
NO
|
23
BUF
|
24
OAK
|
20
DEN
|
7
SD
|
32
MIA
|
6
CIN
|
|
MIA
DEF
|
25
NYJ
|
12
ARI
|
1
NE
|
bye
|
7
SD
|
19
HOU
|
31
BAL
|
23
BUF
|
20
DEN
|
9
SEA
|
24
OAK
|
1
NE
|
22
STL
|
23
BUF
|
27
SF
|
29
KC
|
25
NYJ
|
|
MIN
DEF
|
21
GB
|
3
IND
|
17
CAR
|
26
TEN
|
4
NO
|
15
DET
|
28
CHI
|
bye
|
19
HOU
|
21
GB
|
18
TB
|
13
JAX
|
28
CHI
|
15
DET
|
12
ARI
|
30
ATL
|
8
NYG
|
|
NE
DEF
|
29
KC
|
25
NYJ
|
32
MIA
|
bye
|
27
SF
|
7
SD
|
20
DEN
|
22
STL
|
3
IND
|
23
BUF
|
25
NYJ
|
32
MIA
|
5
PIT
|
9
SEA
|
24
OAK
|
12
ARI
|
23
BUF
|
|
NO
DEF
|
18
TB
|
16
WAS
|
20
DEN
|
27
SF
|
14
MIN
|
24
OAK
|
17
CAR
|
7
SD
|
bye
|
30
ATL
|
29
KC
|
21
GB
|
18
TB
|
30
ATL
|
28
CHI
|
15
DET
|
17
CAR
|
|
NYG
DEF
|
16
WAS
|
22
STL
|
6
CIN
|
bye
|
9
SEA
|
10
CLE
|
27
SF
|
5
PIT
|
2
DAL
|
11
PHI
|
31
BAL
|
12
ARI
|
16
WAS
|
11
PHI
|
2
DAL
|
17
CAR
|
14
MIN
|
|
NYJ
DEF
|
32
MIA
|
1
NE
|
7
SD
|
12
ARI
|
bye
|
6
CIN
|
24
OAK
|
29
KC
|
23
BUF
|
22
STL
|
1
NE
|
26
TEN
|
20
DEN
|
27
SF
|
23
BUF
|
9
SEA
|
32
MIA
|
|
OAK
DEF
|
20
DEN
|
29
KC
|
23
BUF
|
7
SD
|
bye
|
4
NO
|
25
NYJ
|
31
BAL
|
30
ATL
|
17
CAR
|
32
MIA
|
20
DEN
|
29
KC
|
7
SD
|
1
NE
|
19
HOU
|
18
TB
|
|
PHI
DEF
|
22
STL
|
2
DAL
|
5
PIT
|
28
CHI
|
16
WAS
|
27
SF
|
bye
|
30
ATL
|
9
SEA
|
8
NYG
|
6
CIN
|
31
BAL
|
12
ARI
|
8
NYG
|
10
CLE
|
16
WAS
|
2
DAL
|
|
PIT
DEF
|
19
HOU
|
10
CLE
|
11
PHI
|
31
BAL
|
13
JAX
|
bye
|
6
CIN
|
8
NYG
|
16
WAS
|
3
IND
|
7
SD
|
6
CIN
|
1
NE
|
2
DAL
|
31
BAL
|
26
TEN
|
10
CLE
|
|
SD
DEF
|
17
CAR
|
20
DEN
|
25
NYJ
|
24
OAK
|
32
MIA
|
1
NE
|
23
BUF
|
4
NO
|
bye
|
29
KC
|
5
PIT
|
3
IND
|
30
ATL
|
24
OAK
|
29
KC
|
18
TB
|
20
DEN
|
|
SEA
DEF
|
23
BUF
|
27
SF
|
22
STL
|
bye
|
8
NYG
|
21
GB
|
18
TB
|
27
SF
|
11
PHI
|
32
MIA
|
12
ARI
|
16
WAS
|
2
DAL
|
1
NE
|
22
STL
|
25
NYJ
|
12
ARI
|
|
SF
DEF
|
12
ARI
|
9
SEA
|
15
DET
|
4
NO
|
1
NE
|
11
PHI
|
8
NYG
|
9
SEA
|
bye
|
12
ARI
|
22
STL
|
2
DAL
|
23
BUF
|
25
NYJ
|
32
MIA
|
22
STL
|
16
WAS
|
|
STL
DEF
|
11
PHI
|
8
NYG
|
9
SEA
|
23
BUF
|
bye
|
16
WAS
|
2
DAL
|
1
NE
|
12
ARI
|
25
NYJ
|
27
SF
|
28
CHI
|
32
MIA
|
12
ARI
|
9
SEA
|
27
SF
|
30
ATL
|
|
TB
DEF
|
4
NO
|
30
ATL
|
28
CHI
|
21
GB
|
20
DEN
|
17
CAR
|
9
SEA
|
2
DAL
|
29
KC
|
bye
|
14
MIN
|
15
DET
|
4
NO
|
17
CAR
|
30
ATL
|
7
SD
|
24
OAK
|
|
TEN
DEF
|
13
JAX
|
6
CIN
|
19
HOU
|
14
MIN
|
31
BAL
|
bye
|
29
KC
|
3
IND
|
21
GB
|
28
CHI
|
13
JAX
|
25
NYJ
|
15
DET
|
10
CLE
|
19
HOU
|
5
PIT
|
3
IND
|
|
WAS
DEF
|
8
NYG
|
4
NO
|
12
ARI
|
2
DAL
|
11
PHI
|
22
STL
|
10
CLE
|
15
DET
|
5
PIT
|
bye
|
2
DAL
|
9
SEA
|
8
NYG
|
31
BAL
|
6
CIN
|
11
PHI
|
27
SF
|
|
|
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
|
Red=
Difficult Schedule
|
|
Green= Favorable Schedule
|
|
Table VII – 4for4.com 2008 Team Offense Rankings
|
|
|
4for4.com TEAM
OFFENSE POWER RATINGS are used to facilitate the above analysis. The
Power Ratings are listed below for your convenience.
|
|
NE
Offensive Power Ranking = 1
|
|
DAL
Offensive Power Ranking = 2
|
|
IND
Offensive Power Ranking = 3
|
|
NO
Offensive Power Ranking = 4
|
|
PIT
Offensive Power Ranking = 5
|
|
CIN
Offensive Power Ranking = 6
|
|
SD
Offensive Power Ranking = 7
|
|
NYG
Offensive Power Ranking = 8
|
|
SEA
Offensive Power Ranking = 9
|
|
CLE
Offensive Power Ranking = 10
|
|
PHI
Offensive Power Ranking = 11
|
|
ARI
Offensive Power Ranking = 12
|
|
JAX
Offensive Power Ranking = 13
|
|
MIN
Offensive Power Ranking = 14
|
|
DET
Offensive Power Ranking = 15
|
|
WAS
Offensive Power Ranking = 16
|
|
CAR
Offensive Power Ranking = 17
|
|
TB
Offensive Power Ranking = 18
|
|
HOU
Offensive Power Ranking = 19
|
|
DEN
Offensive Power Ranking = 20
|
|
GB
Offensive Power Ranking = 21
|
|
STL
Offensive Power Ranking = 22
|
|
BUF
Offensive Power Ranking = 23
|
|
OAK
Offensive Power Ranking = 24
|
|
NYJ
Offensive Power Ranking = 25
|
|
TEN
Offensive Power Ranking = 26
|
|
SF
Offensive Power Ranking = 27
|
|
CHI
Offensive Power Ranking = 28
|
|
KC
Offensive Power Ranking = 29
|
|
ATL
Offensive Power Ranking = 30
|
|
BAL
Offensive Power Ranking = 31
|
|
MIA
Offensive Power Ranking = 32
|
|
|
When
I was first introduced to Fantasy Football, I had the good fortune of
often generating the best regular season record. However, inevitably I'd
almost always end up losing in the championship (to a lesser team). Why?
My opponent’s team was more optimized for the playoffs.
Nowadays, I'm still able to win a few in the regular season, but by
leveraging the "Hot Spots", I'm the one now taking home a
disproportionately large share of the championship trophies.
If you draft using a killer high-end software tool like pcDrafter or
nothing more than a paper and pencil, I'm convinced having just one or two
extra favorable matchups during the playoffs is often all it takes to gain
an edge --- and walk off with a championship. The take is clear --- never
underestimate the role of good matchups in the playoffs!
As perceptions change during the 2008 Regular Season, so do the "Hot
Spots." Injuries will cast their negative net on some squads and like
clockwork one NFL team will rise up this year and surprise us all.
The punch line? As the year progresses, it's wise to examine updated
"Hot Spots" and look for new opportunity. For your convenience,
all the "Hot Spots" presented here will be updated weekly at
4for4.com during the 2008 NFL Regular Season.
|
|
As the season starts, it's wise to examine updated "Hot Spots" and look for new opportunity.
For your convenience, all the "Hot Spots" presented here will be updated weekly at 4for4.com during the NFL Regular Season.
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|
|
|
|
|
